| Ryuu96 said: Why do I get the feeling Scholz is going to attempt to throw Ukraine under the bus, I know he says no decisions about Ukraine's fate without the consent of Ukrainians but it just feels weird how much I'm hearing lately about Germany trying to talk to Putin, any talks with Putin should have Zelenskyy included, unless Ukraine gives permission for a country to talk to Putin about what happens in Ukraine. If Ukraine doesn't give such permission or isn't involved in the talks then it's a waste of time, it's not up to Germany what happens in Ukraine. What I feel like lately is Europe is waiting on the US Election and that will decide what happens, if Trump wins I just have the horrible feeling that Europe is going to piss itself and throw Ukraine under the bus, likely try to force Ukraine to accept defeat and shitty concessions, to the rage of Eastern Europe. But maybe I'm just too cynical lately. |
Escalation management was and is all about managing a status quo with no commitment to bring an end to the war, neither in Ukraine or Israel. It's a strategy that logically ends with the conclusion that the whole issue will be the next elected leader's problem to solve. Additionally, the situation with the USA is especially dire because the two candidates have very different views on these wars, so weak Europe has to play the waiting game.
As for Germany specifically, the country is now entering the early stage of the next national election in September 2025. All the parties are deciding on their candidate for chancellor, so it's the time when the designated guys begin to test the waters. Softening the stance on support for Ukraine has also been done by Germany's conservative party and leader, because East Germany still romanticizes its time as a Russian satellite state. Parroting the far-right is a proven failed strategy, but politicians' memories are short-lived, so they keep doing it.
But what can Scholz actually do? Throwing Ukraine under the bus isn't something that he could get done in his coalition within the next ten months, and his chances for re-election are absolutely pathetic with the SPD polling at around half of the conservative CDU which is destined to win with ease; I very much doubt that voters' opinions will shift dramatically until the election. Are the conservatives trustworthy on Ukraine? Not really; their recipe for success is to go with the flow of public opinion, so it really depends on how the population of Germany answers in surveys. Up till now questions on the Ukraine war haven't been in clear favor of either side which is part of the reason why escalation management has been the name of the game; the other part being that Scholz is a coward.
Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.
