Given that the executive branch's power over military functions was sharply curtailed some years ago, I doubt the President can do much with regards to military aid without Congress.

But the 2022 election doesn't worry me. Neither party is likely to hold a commanding majority and support for Ukraine is very broad. And 2024, as I said, is not so much about parties as it is domestic feelings about the war and inflation. If the War were to start going poorly or if NATO members outside the US slow their support financially and/or still haven't reached their 2% of GDP commitment, those could be issues. But inflation is the big threat. If inflation is running hot in 2024, that would likely lead to both parties pushing strongly domestic focused platforms and could see aid to Ukraine become a marginalized issue or collateral damage in the political battles so to speak.

Another Russian collapse.

It feels strange to read a discussion concerning this war in 2024.

On one side we have Ukraine receiving weapon deliveries on a continuous basis and their troops are getting steadily reinforced with thousand of soldiers that have gone through extensive training by NATO member states. This combines with leadership who knows what they are doing, how and when to attack the enemy to minimize their own losses of manpower and equipment.

And on the other side we have Russia which does not only suffer from a lack of good equipment due to sanctions, but also a lack of trained soldiers on top of their poor leadership.

The recent successes of Ukraine were achieved against the best that Russia still has to offer. This means the farther the Ukrainian army marches on, the worse equipped and worse trained the Russian troops will be. Therefore the rate of land gains is going to accelerate in the coming weeks. But most likely there will come a point where Russia has been pushed back so far that their troops will be concentrated in one important city, and that will then take a while until Ukraine wins the battle.

If things go well for Ukraine until the end of 2022, we might hit the point where Russia changes its goal in this war to "defend Crimea" because there won't be much else left.

Unless the highly unrealistic thing happens - Russia using nuclear weapons - this war is already at a stage comparable to World War II on the European continent in fall 1944. At that point it was absolutely clear that Nazi Germany was going to lose the war and the only real question left was how long they would want to drag it out. In fall 2022 Russia has lost this war and the flow of supply lines (manpower and equipment) makes it clear that it's just a matter of time until either Russia has to give up or has been pushed out of Ukraine altogether. The latter being the more likely scenario because of Russia is with its facist regime.

Winter is coming and will likely force a break in this war where things slow down massively, but I'd be surprised if this whole thing isn't settled by summer 2023. Meaning the entirety of Ukraine liberated.

Definitely not comparable to the situation during WWII where people used to be simple workers and not highly specialized and skilled employees like today. You can't just send anyone to these vacant positions and expect them to perform just as well. Also the amount of women in businesses has increased a lot compared to those old times. There aren't that many you could send to take on the jobs since they would leave a position of their own vacant.