Please give me a 3rd rout.

The one caveat I have in the back of my mind, particularly regarding developments over the winter, is with the US elections if a significant number of Trumpist candidates get elected they are likely to stonewall further support for Ukraine. So far some hard-right Republicans like Lindsay Graham seem to have been willingly to continue support but they might be willing fold if they have the numbers
Then if the war is still going in 2024 (here’s hoping Ukraine have won by then) that if Trump were re-elected he would be likely to pressure Ukraine into surrendering. Not sure in Desantis, the only other likely Republican nominee at this stage, but my presumption is he’d do something similar.

How dependent would Ukraine be on the US though? Especially by 2024. Their support has helped a lot, but Ukraine have already turned things around and are taking things back. They're getting support from plenty of other countries too, so even without the US they'd still have stuff coming in. I don't think there's any real chance of them surrendering, it's more a case of how much of their land they'd be able to get back.

Plus in the long term there are big question makrs over russia too. IIRC they have a presidential election in 2024, and granted it'll probably be rigged to be a putin win, but it could still result in a lot more unrest within russia. Gotta wonder how much longer putin will even last too. Sick old dictators with a tonne of enemies across the world and growing unrest at home don't exactly have long life expectancies.

So I don't think Elon is anti-Ukraine. He's just another armchair "expert" spooked by the big numbers thrown around regarding Russia's military. He like others simply fails to realize those numbers don't matter, what matters is what they have the capacity to field and Russia can only effectively field a small fraction of their theoretical strength. Truth of the matter is, what they have fielded is probably near the max they can field effectively. They just do not have the economic, industrial, or logistical capacity to field anywhere near their full theoretical strength. Now they've had time to build up infrastructure in occupied regions to bulster that, but Ukraine is doing a lot of damage there so it likely won't matter much longer in most of the occupied regions.

But that aside, fact is the possibility of Russia getting major concessions from Ukraine died months ago. They probably could have gotten a fair bit in March or April when Ukraine was still on the backfoot and international support was still forming. But now? Not only has Ukraine's victories emboldened their people and Russia's conduct enraged them, Russia's losses and dysfuction have severely damaged their reputation as a major power and power broker. Add on that that no one trusts Russia and that outcome becomes a clear political impossibility.

But Elon is right about one thing: for this to end, both sides will likely have to back down from their maximalist demands. Russia has no chance of fully controlling through regime change or occupation all of Ukraine. They have recognized this and scaled back, but even their new goals are proving a stretch. For Ukraine, it's lovely to dream of deposing Putin, trying half the miltary bureaucracy for War Crimes, demilitarizing Russia, and confiscating their nuclear arsenal, but that's just not realistic. No nation has been compelled to accept a treaty so harsh in nearly 80 years. And that only happened at the literal barrel of a gun, with Germany and Japan thoroughly defeated and facing eminent total defeat and occupation anyway. Ukraine doesn't have the capacity to do that to Russia, even with western assistance. The only way that has a chance of happening is if Russia implodes from within. Which isn't impossible, the Soviet Union collapsed afterall. And the provisional government of the Russia also collapsed in WWI, largely due to colossal military failures. But that is a long shot.

So there's unlikely to be a nice, clean, "good guys win" end to this. There will be negotiations at some point, the fighting leading up to that will all be about leverage.

On a side note regardin the US support, as of now it is broadly bipartisan and enjoys significant majority support. If things continue as they are, I don't see that changing regardless of the party alignment unless something really wacky happens with the fringe wierdos becoming way more popular nationwide. The two biggest threats aren't the parties or anything like that. It's inflation and feelings regarding NATO contributions. Inflation is one of the very few things that tends to make people sit up and take economic policy and spending seriously for a change. It also tends to turn national concern inward. So support for Ukraine could become collateral damage if inflation is still running hot in 2024. The NATO issue is more about NATO members following through on defense spending. The "free rider" argument that the US does all the defense spending heavy lifting was a common talking point for years. If 2024 rolls around and NATO nations have pumped the breaks on defense spending increases, I could see this creeping back into the discourse despite the unifying effects of the Ukraine conflict. A lot of Americans came to feel over time that NATO leaned too much on the US to be the muscle (somewhat fairly, though the US is the one that chooses to spend so much on defense) and could become antsy if they feel the Ukraine conflict is becoming a predominantly US responsibility.

But honestly that second bit I don't think will be as impactful as the first one. Unless other NATO countries actually do seriously mess up. Again, so long as things progess mostly positively.

But we'll see. Honestly, Russia needs to make it to 2024 first.

If this chart is accurate they rely heavily on the US when compared to what the rest of the world has given. I don't see Ukraine giving up the war effort even if the US dropped support but it would greatly impact them. US dropping support over time has been a fear of mine, public sentiment may change if this war is dragged out over years. I can already see politicians saying we have given enough and that we can't keep funding someone else's endless war. I hope that doesn't happen. Right now things are looking good, if Ukraine keeps making gains people will hear positive news stories on how US funding is paying off.

Find more statistics at Statista

They are very dependent on US help but the chart isn't 100% accurate. US numbers as example inlcude a lot which didn't even happen yet and some other countries pretty much only announce stuff short before delivery. So If you only count only already delivered help the US won't be that much in front but they are obviously still by far the most important ally in this case

Question to an American, does Biden need House/Senate approval for sending stuff via Lend-Lease now since it's signed into law and already passed both departments?

Not that they've even started using Lend-Lease yet...But it could be a workaround if House/Senate flips, although Tbh, I'm not worried about that, I don't think they'll be too much of a swing to either side in both House/Senate to make a difference, a lot of Republicans support Ukraine in both and support for Ukraine among the public is still high, a dozen lunatics won't change much.

2024 is more concerning if Trump doesn't end up in jail before then, Lol. But hopefully Dark Brandon can win again and at the rate that this is going, Ukraine will push Russia out by 2024. If they can take back Kherson and partly cut off North Donbas supplies by taking Svatove before Winter that will be major gains, both sides will likely stagnate through Winter with a renewed offensive by Spring.

But given the state of Russia's military equipment in both weaponry and clothing, I suspect the Russians are going to have a much more miserable time than Ukraine through Winter and literally freeze to death in some areas, their morale is already shot to shit and Ukraine will get NATO equipment all throughout Winter even if things stagnate for a Spring offensive.

That's if Ukraine even slows down in Winter...I'm becoming more convinced that Ukraine will push Russia out of all of Ukraine (aside from Crimea) at sometime during 2023 though. They need to cleave through Zaporizhzhia for the final blow.

As Ukraine Smashes Through More Russian Lines, Russians Wonder Whom to Blame | The Economist

By the time Russian soldiers were making SOS appeals for emergency aviation support via social media, the Ukrainians were already at least 12 miles behind enemy lines.

The High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, known as HIMARS, will be part of a new $625 million package of aid expected to be announced on Tuesday, according to U.S. officials.

The decision marks the first time the U.S. has sent more HIMARS to Ukraine since late July, and it will bring the total number delivered so far to 20. The systems have become a key tool in Ukraine’s ability to strike bridges that Russia has used to supply its troops, enabling Ukrainian forces to make inroads in Russia-controlled regions.

The U.S. in recent weeks also provided funding through a separate program — the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative — so another 18 HIMARS can be purchased through longer-term contracts. USAI funds are being used as part of the effort by the U.S. and Western allies to ensure Ukraine’s forces are trained and equipped to defend their country in the years to come. But those contracts will take several years to fulfill.

Officials: US to Send Ukraine More Advanced Rocket Systems | AP News

Yesterday, I said that the 4 HIMARS were from the 18 promised but it seems I was wrong, it's 4 HIMARS in addition to the 18 promised over the longer term, so America is now committing to sending 22 extra HIMARS in total. Either way, Ukraine is getting a lot of HIMARS.