Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

[Ka-pi96]

SecondWar said:

The one caveat I have in the back of my mind, particularly regarding developments over the winter, is with the US elections if a significant number of Trumpist candidates get elected they are likely to stonewall further support for Ukraine. So far some hard-right Republicans like Lindsay Graham seem to have been willingly to continue support but they might be willing fold if they have the numbers
Then if the war is still going in 2024 (here’s hoping Ukraine have won by then) that if Trump were re-elected he would be likely to pressure Ukraine into surrendering. Not sure in Desantis, the only other likely Republican nominee at this stage, but my presumption is he’d do something similar.

How dependent would Ukraine be on the US though? Especially by 2024. Their support has helped a lot, but Ukraine have already turned things around and are taking things back. They're getting support from plenty of other countries too, so even without the US they'd still have stuff coming in. I don't think there's any real chance of them surrendering, it's more a case of how much of their land they'd be able to get back.

Plus in the long term there are big question makrs over russia too. IIRC they have a presidential election in 2024, and granted it'll probably be rigged to be a putin win, but it could still result in a lot more unrest within russia. Gotta wonder how much longer putin will even last too. Sick old dictators with a tonne of enemies across the world and growing unrest at home don't exactly have long life expectancies.