The one caveat I have in the back of my mind, particularly regarding developments over the winter, is with the US elections if a significant number of Trumpist candidates get elected they are likely to stonewall further support for Ukraine. So far some hard-right Republicans like Lindsay Graham seem to have been willingly to continue support but they might be willing fold if they have the numbers
Then if the war is still going in 2024 (here’s hoping Ukraine have won by then) that if Trump were re-elected he would be likely to pressure Ukraine into surrendering. Not sure in Desantis, the only other likely Republican nominee at this stage, but my presumption is he’d do something similar.