Thanks for updating this post everyone.

It's the only reason I still come here.

Nintendo killed gaming for me, which I thought would never happen. Game key cards are about as good a strategy as Russian attack on Ukraine. Hopefully this war wraps up soon as I read a week ago the communist empire may have run out of cash reserves to keep the war going for much longer.

1. “We Will Isolate Crimea in the Near Future,” Ukraine’s Drone Forces Commander Explains How
https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/we-will-isolate-crimea-in-the-near-future-ukraines-drone-forces-commander-explains-how-19746

2. Ukrainians hit four more Crimea bridges, amid reports of empty shelves in food shops (Ukraine Battlefield update, Day 1,568)
https://euobserver.com/221435/ukrainians-hit-four-more-crimea-bridges-causing-empty-shelves-in-supermarkets-ukraine-battlefield-update-day-1568/?cst=6f543ff4d8c26c74d7415d13fd33525b9237642993cc39499fb724ab0affee77

3. Ukraine Strikes Afipsky Oil Refinery and Military Logistics Sites Across Russia and Temporarily Occupied Territories
https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/ukraine-strikes-afipsky-oil-refinery-and-military-logistics-sites-across-russia-and-temporarily-occupied-territories-19751

4. Ukraine Confirms Major Blow To Russian Supply Lines After Crimea Bridge Attack, Video
https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/ukraine-confirms-major-blow-to-russian-supply-lines-after-crimea-bridge-attack-video-19754

5. Russians Establish Alternative Routes Bypassing Damaged Bridges to Crimea
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/russians-alternative-bypass-bridges-crimea/

6. There is no #6

Russia’s bank chief disappears after giving pootin an ultimatum

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/s/AnTlJZnBJa

Paul Warburg video on Ukraine telling the Russian citizens to leave Crimea. Ukraine’s emphasis on drone attacks in Crimea has been working quite well.

Russia has stopped gasoline sales in crimea unless to government or military buyers. All 3 ferries are down. The only way out is over the Kerch bridge.  Ukraine claims that soon Crimea will become an island, that there will be no traffic coming into or out of the peninsula. 




https://youtu.be/DbD51qxdts8?is=3W_pLQcVHdSeaMcz

Bank runs in Crimea as their cards don’t work b/c of no power and internet.

Russia has pressured Belarusian to enter the war against Ukraine

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-pressures-belarus-in-bid-to-open-new-front-in-ukraine-war-8020d37e


It sounds like it would be a good thing for Russia, however this could also give justification for the EU nations to get involved to a greater degree. What does everyone think about this? Would Ukraine’s supporters start sending troops to help defend?

It is unlikely this would cause troop deployments to Ukraine itself, but would likely result in large scale movement of troops to the EU-Belarussian border.  But it's not like Ukraine would probably need a ton of help dealing with this, honestly.

Lukashenko is deeply unpopular, his regime only survives because Russia props it up via military force, albeit with only a couple thousand troops actually Belarus atm.  As such, Russia does have a lot of leverage.

However, the odds Belarus will actually do this are very low.  Mainly because it would be suicide.  The Ukraine-Belarus border is heavily defended with mines, fixed defenses, obstacles, natural bariers, and Ukrainian forces with ample drone support.  And there are only two highways that cross the border, one in the east north of Chernihiv and one in the west south of Brest.  Belarus can't launch a surprise attack, they don't have the men or equipment.  And if they were to begin a genuine build up, everyone would see the attack coming and Ukraine's positions would only strengthen.

Both scenarios end one way:  the total defeat of Belarusian forces.  And with that, almost certainly the collapse of the Belarusian government.  And in the event that happens, an anti-Russian government could emerge relatively quickly and seek European assistance or protection.  What happens then is anyone's guess, but Russia can't spare the tens of thousands needed to secure Belarus if the current government collapses.

This is a desperation play, but it's unlikely to result in a Belarusian offensive.  The alternative could be a large border build up to try and draw Ukrainian forces away from the eastern front.  That feels more likely if Lukashenko even does anything, which he probably prefers not to.  While Russia keeps him power, it's no secret that he isn't thrilled with the present circumstances.

Ok, it seems like you know a lot about this. I guess you’re giving an insider’s perspective. A less risky option would be for Belarus to allow Russians to conduct drone operations inside the nation. That would enable a lot more attacks on Ukraine if Belarus was willing to pay the price of disavowal by the EU nations. 

100% down. Moscow’s biggest refinery won’t be repaired in time to make gasoline again until next year

https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/06/24/moscows-biggest-oil-refinery-faces-months-offline-after-ukrainian-strikes-reuters/