Looking back at the situation from 2014 onward. I'm somewhat ashamed that Canada failed to release the promised 2014 engagement in a timely manner, only materializing it months after it was promised (and only after it was pointed out by Ukraine). It is clear that Ukraine needed every single day to prepare efficiently. No doubt those delay impact Ukraine ability to defend themselves probably even to these day as every single equipment we were sending them or that they were able to buy themselves with the aid and every hours of training they were able to experience, we know now were absolutely critical.

It also shed a more sinister light on Trump withholding of military aid to Ukraine in 2019 for political gain, with hindsight we can literally say (and not just suppose) that Trump toyed with Ukrainian lives for personal gain.

From Fox News:

It won't escalate into a global war. It will go as it always does, a lot of people dying locally, a lot of damage. Then a 3rd party swoops in to liberate the natural resources, err the people. Put up some interim pro democracy government and tie the country down with the IMF. Putin will self destruct, taking Russia's reputation (or what little there is left of it) with him. Multiple generations of hatred and distrust follow. The common people in Ukraine and Russia will suffer. The rich will get richer.

Russia is not going to be able to occupy the Ukraine

It's a logistical nightmare and Ukraine doesn't have the infrastructure to support a military campaign needed to get a country that size under control.

It can go different ways of course. The best would be Putin retreating, yet he seems to be too much of a mad man to do so. The worst is Putin deploying WMD t subdue the Ukraine, then occupy the country. More likely is a ceasefire, Putin keeping forces along the border, UN sending troops in and it will remain a flashpoint for years.

2000 years and still we can't prevent this kind of shit from happening. The best would be hastening the switch to renewable energy and get rid of our dependency on oil. Of course water wars will be next. Why everyone is so hesitant with Russia:

Overall, Russia supplies about one-third of European natural gas consumption, used for winter heating as well as electricity generation and industrial production. The European Union (EU) also turns to Russia for more than one-quarter of its crude oil imports, the bloc’s largest single energy source.

Some EU states are far more dependent than others. Portugal and Spain use little Russian energy, while Germany, the largest European economy, gets more than half of its natural gas and more than 30 percent of its crude oil supplies from Russia. France gets most of its electricity from nuclear power but still relies on Russian imports to meet its fossil fuel needs. Analysts say plans in Germany and other countries to phase out nuclear and coal power could increase this dependence.

Russia’s justification for the invasion is as a pre-emptive strike against NATO expansion and encirclement. If the US are in Ukraine, it helps provide legitimacy to their claims.

And I use the word ‘legitimacy’ for the lack of a better word, and as loosely as possible. Also, instead of ‘claims’ read paranoia.

I’ve posted something along these lines as well. My guess is Germany might try to reactivate some of its nuclear reactors (if that’s possible) but also there will be a scramble to source oil&gas from elsewhere. Places like Nigeria and Saudi Arabia might be beneficiaries, Norway as well but I’ve read elsewhere that they are at capacity. There probably already is behind-the-scenes lobbying by oil execs in the US on the matter to get increased demand for the US oil industry.

Personally, I’d prefer the Russian gas was replaced by renewables but that seems unlikely in the short-term.

Russian missile strikes Apartment building in Kyiv.

Ukraine was never anywhere close to joining NATO before. If anything, this invasion makes a stronger case for them joining NATO now, along with Finland and Sweden.

Putin is scapegoating NATO. From the beginning of his 23 years in power (including the 4 years where he administered the government through Dmitry Medvedev), Putin has dreamed of rebuilding the Russian Empire. In a speech in 2005, he called the dissolution of the USSR the greatest tragedy of the 20th Century. He's been in constant aggression against his neighbors. He's also tried to destabilize NATO at every opportunity.  He never recognized the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government. He has said that Ukraine is rightfully a part of Russia based on shared language and history, even though the Ukrainians are a distinct ethnicity from the Russians with their own language, traditions, and history. He has called Ukraine (and other countries that formerly made up the Soviet Union) artificial countries created by the fall of the USSR. He has already annexed Ukrainian territory on the Crimean peninsula. When he made his declaration of intent to invade Ukraine, he barely mentioned NATO. 

If Ukraine had a puppet leader like Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, Putin might leave them alone. But to what end? Why should Ukraine obey Putin?

Furthermore, if Putin is allowed to take Ukraine unchallenged, it opens the door for a lot more horror. The Baltic republics would likely be next. What about Poland, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, who are the next countries in line on the borders of Belarus and Ukraine? What about Finland, which sits right near St. Petersburg?

And just as important, would Putin's successes in Europe embolden Beijing to use force to bring Taiwan under its control? 

We are walking a fine line here. Directly attacking Russia would trigger World War III, which would put everybody in danger from Russia's nuclear warheads and 600 million military-eligible Chinese citizens. So we are providing materiel support to Ukraine while cutting off Russia's access to the global economy. The Ukrainians themselves are fighting like hell because they don't want to be ruled by Russia. Ukraine's president is on the front lines along with his people, having said several times that he is willing to die for his country. But we also cannot let Russia and China impose their will on people who don't want to surrender their sovereignty.  If Putin does attack a NATO member, we are obligated to respond in kind.  It is better for if we can help the Ukrainians hold their own long enough for the Russians to decide that Ukraine is not worth the loss of blood and treasure that Russia can't really afford to lose.

Believe me, nobody except Putin wants this war. And if it continues to be a disaster for Russia, Putin is going to wish he'd never started the war. 

My imagination has Putin reenacting the famous scene from "The Downfall."

It looks like the Chechens are out after this. Kadyrov apparently decided that one humiliating defeat was enough. 

I knew Russia was sending young conscripts as cannon fodder in the eastern front but that much disregard with paratroopers is baffling.