Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

[SvennoJ]

It won't escalate into a global war. It will go as it always does, a lot of people dying locally, a lot of damage. Then a 3rd party swoops in to liberate the natural resources, err the people. Put up some interim pro democracy government and tie the country down with the IMF. Putin will self destruct, taking Russia's reputation (or what little there is left of it) with him. Multiple generations of hatred and distrust follow. The common people in Ukraine and Russia will suffer. The rich will get richer.

Russia is not going to be able to occupy the Ukraine

It's a logistical nightmare and Ukraine doesn't have the infrastructure to support a military campaign needed to get a country that size under control.

It can go different ways of course. The best would be Putin retreating, yet he seems to be too much of a mad man to do so. The worst is Putin deploying WMD t subdue the Ukraine, then occupy the country. More likely is a ceasefire, Putin keeping forces along the border, UN sending troops in and it will remain a flashpoint for years.

2000 years and still we can't prevent this kind of shit from happening. The best would be hastening the switch to renewable energy and get rid of our dependency on oil. Of course water wars will be next. Why everyone is so hesitant with Russia:

Overall, Russia supplies about one-third of European natural gas consumption, used for winter heating as well as electricity generation and industrial production. The European Union (EU) also turns to Russia for more than one-quarter of its crude oil imports, the bloc’s largest single energy source.

Some EU states are far more dependent than others. Portugal and Spain use little Russian energy, while Germany, the largest European economy, gets more than half of its natural gas and more than 30 percent of its crude oil supplies from Russia. France gets most of its electricity from nuclear power but still relies on Russian imports to meet its fossil fuel needs. Analysts say plans in Germany and other countries to phase out nuclear and coal power could increase this dependence.