Zelensky: It seems like Russia and the U.S. are preparing an ultimatum to Ukraine, talking about Ukraine without Ukraine. We didn’t accept ultimatums in 2022, when the situation was much more serious and nobody was helping us, and I have no intention of accepting any ultimatums now.

This is what real bravery looks like. What real leadership looks like. MAGA could never understand when they follow Trump Chamberlain, except Trump's even worse, a fascist lover, a friend of modern day Hitler, how the hell can any Trump voter show their face without feeling ashamed. Europe, time to step the fuck up, we cannot let Ukraine go through this alone, it would be one of the biggest failings of humanity in modern history. All Putin needed to do is wait for Trump to be elected, it was always the plan, Trump was always going to backstab Europe because he's a Russian asset.

1. With the conservative guy, you mean Merz from the CDU/CSU, right? Well, the odds are very much in his favor unless something very unexpected happens.
2. With the current polling, probably the SPD of Scholz. The Greens are below the SPD in the polls and will probably not be enough to gain a majority , but with Scholz they could have. If it's not enough with the SPD, then probably the Greens will get on board, too. The CDU/CSU is currently polling at 29-33%, the SPD is at 15-17%, while the greens are sitting at 12-15%, so if they all are at the bottom of their numbers then maybe 3 parties will again be necessary to get a majority.
3. Scholz was very weak and undecisive, so yes, he will be tougher on Russia - though not by very much I fear.

One major Problem Germany faces when it comes to sending stuff to Ukraine is financing the replacement stuff. For instance, the Marder that are being sent to Ukraine are in theory getting replaced by the Puma, but with the Schuldenbremse in place Germany simply can't order enough new vehicles for their troops to replace the outgoing ones. Germany only could order 50 new Puma compared to the 140 Marder that they sent to Ukraine.

The new government can try to reform the debt brake to loosen it's strings, of which Merz and both the SPD and Greens are in favor of - but not necessarily all of the CDU/CSU, which might cause some problems getting it pushed through. They are also not in favor of Eurobonds which would circumvent the problem, So we can only hope this gets sorted out quickly.

One interesting development in the last weeks was that Germany got their first Boxer with the Skyranger 30 weapon platform, which is a short-range AA platform. The Bundeswehr has ordered those to replace their aging Gepard SPAAG, so with those in place Germany could finally send the rest of their Gepards (which are all in operational reserve) to Ukraine, where they will be a huge boon against drones and loitering munitions.

1. 100% to get the most votes. Almost 100% to lead the next government. There's a very tiny possibility that the left-wing parties of SPD, Greens and The Left (in German: Die Linke) could see a late surge and gain enough of the pie if only five parties make the 5% cut to be eligible for seats. If it's only five parties going into the next parliament, then a combined total of ~44% of the votes can be sufficient for a majority, because all the smaller parties of Germany poll at ~12% combined right now. In this scenario the left-wing could decline a coalition with the CDU and band together, despite the CDU being the single-biggest party. But currently SPD, Greens and The Left combine for only ~38% with just a week to go until the election, so gaining another 6 or even 7 percent points would be a miracle. I only mention this because it would be too funny if it actually happened.

2. Merz's CDU is going to partner with either the SPD or Greens, because his party categorically rules out coalitions with The Left and the AfD. The SPD is the more preferable option, but in general the current CDU is at odds of a similar level to both the SPD and Greens, distributed among a different set of categories. That's why the Greens can't be ruled out, not to mention that it would be stupid of the CDU to do so in advance because that would give the SPD a lot more leverage in the coalition talks.

3. Merz can be believed to be tougher on Russia than Scholz, but... that... isn't exactly a high bar we are setting here. What can be expected is that Scholz won't get a ministry if CDU+SPD happens, but it's not like the majority of the SPD disagreed with how Scholz has handled Ukraine. So realistically, CDU+SPD won't lead to significant changes in foreign policy, just minor improvements; as a specific point, I'd expect Taurus to be still off the table for Ukraine. CDU+Greens could make Taurus happen, but there are major hurdles for this coalition when it comes to domestic politics. Then again, the Greens have a habit of bending over backwards for the sake of getting at least something done instead of nothing at all.

One key feature of right-wing parties when they aren't in government is that they say a lot of things that people want to hear, but commonly with next to no explanation of how that is achievable. So just about everything Merz says at the moment is likely to get softened notably once he got his victory and not just because of concessions that need to be made to their coalition partner.

One interesting tidbit about the German election polls ist that The Left is surging in the polls like crazy in the last 2 weeks, mostly taking voters from BSW, but also from the SPD and Greens, but more importantly, the AFD. The Left went from not getting past the 5% bar to almost double digit, and this could have some major implications if they steal too many votes from SPD and Greens, but it also means that Merz will have less to fear from the AFD if those polls are to be believed.

I wonder if some of those voters tried the Wahl-O-Mat (elect-o-meter to find out what party fits best to your positions, there's actually a video of an American taking the test and his result:

CNN: Russian delegation has already met with Trump’s team. A Russian representative confirms that while no direct promises were made, the message was clear: "Let’s talk, find the best solution." He praised Trump’s problem-solving skills.

Russia praising the US. I think I know where this is heading.

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 18 February 2025 at 08:54

Russia has improved North Korea’s KN-23 missiles, making them more accurate, – Budanov. Ukraine’s intel chief told that Moscow modified the KN-23, reducing its error margin from 500-1500m to a much deadlier precision. NK-Russia military ties are deepening.

www.chosun.com/english/nort...

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 18 February 2025 at 09:50

This morning in Brussels, EC President von der Leyen met with US Special Envoy Gen. Keith Kellogg. She highlighted the EU's €135B commitment to Ukraine’s financial stability & defense, including matching the US’s $52B in military aid. The EU is set to scale up defense production.

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 18 February 2025 at 09:57

🇫🇷 France’s Foreign Minister Barrot says the issue of sending Western troops to Ukraine will be considered only after a peace agreement is reached. He also confirmed that the EU is preparing its 16th package of sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector.

www.bfmtv.com/internationa...

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 18 February 2025 at 11:20

Member of the European Parliament Lagodinsky claims he was notified about the intentions by Trump's team. A proposal consisting 3 stages:

1. A ceasefire
2. Elections in Ukraine
3. Signing of a final agreement

He called it a 'complete fulfillment of Putin's desires and a gift to Putin by Trump.

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 18 February 2025 at 11:26

Zelensky warns that an ill-considered end to the war in Ukraine could lead to an Afghan-style scenario. He emphasized that no agreements about Ukraine should be made without its involvement and called on the US to play a more active role in ending the war.

www.ardmediathek.de/video/maisch...

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 18 February 2025 at 12:10

No ceasefire in sight anytime soon: Former Ukrainian FM Kuleba tells BBC, "The game hasn't even started, we're just warming up. We need to pull Trump into a long game instead of rushing into a deal." He adds, "Minsk-3 is seen as the only realistic scenario in the US."

www.bbc.com/ukrainian/ar...

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 18 February 2025 at 12:11

Erdogan welcomed Zelensky, who is paying an official visit to Türkiye. Erdogan has initiated bilateral talks with Zelensky regarding the resolution of the war in Ukraine, according to the Turkish leader's office. Discussions aim to address the ongoing conflict and explore diplomatic solutions.

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 18 February 2025 at 12:42

Sec. of State Marco Rubio on US-Russia talks: Ending the war in Ukraine will take complex diplomacy. Trump wants a just peace to prevent future conflict. All sides must compromise. The EU must join talks. A resolution could open US-Russia economic & geopolitical ties.

www.state.gov/secretary-ru...

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 18 February 2025 at 14:03

⚠️ Russia demands NATO revoke its 2008 Bucharest Summit declaration on Ukraine & Georgia’s path to membership—Reuters. Zakharova says merely refusing Ukraine’s NATO entry isn’t enough; the alliance must officially retract its 2008 pledge.

🤷‍♂️

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 18 February 2025 at 14:05

⚡️🇹🇷 Turkey is the ideal place for Russia-Ukraine negotiations, says Erdoğan after meeting Zelensky, reaffirming Turkey’s full support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and emphasizing the strategic partnership between the two nations.

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 18 February 2025 at 14:39

🇪🇺 EU countries are preparing a military aid package for Ukraine worth at least €6B, potentially rising to €10B. The package could include 1.5M artillery shells & air defense systems. It's set to be unveiled before a European commissioners' visit to Kyiv on Feb 24.

www.politico.eu/article/ukra...

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 18 February 2025 at 17:59

⚠️ Putin still aims to occupy all of Ukraine—he’s not interested in a peace deal, only faking negotiations, NBC News reports, citing intelligence.

www.nbcnews.com/politics/nat...

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 18 February 2025 at 19:12

🇺🇸 “A monumental step toward peace” – White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt on U.S.-Russia talks.

“Secretary of State Rubio, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz took significant steps toward peace in Ukraine.”

A monumental backstab she probably means.

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 18 February 2025 at 19:16

🇳🇱 Dutch Parliament backs a “constructive stance” on a Ukraine peacekeeping force—even outside NATO. A D66/VVD motion passed despite PVV’s opposition. PM Schoof is open to it, but Wilders rejects sending Dutch troops. The U.S. rules out NATO involvement.

nos.nl/liveblog/255...

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 18 February 2025 at 19:47

🇺🇸 CNN poll shows just 8% of Americans view Russia positively—on par with those who think the moon landing was fake. 61% see Russia as an enemy, and only 4% as a partner. Only 9% like Putin, with the same percentage believing the Earth is flat. 52% support Ukraine using U.S. weapons in Russia.

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 18 February 2025 at 20:36

Putin's peace plan: attack the city of Odesa with a swarm of Shahed drones. Power outages are reported.

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 18 February 2025 at 21:53

"Putin is ready for negotiations with Zelensky, but legal aspects of his legitimacy must be considered, says Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.

Recently, Trump openly questioned Zelensky's position. The Kremlin has always used it as a propaganda effort to discredit the Ukrainian government.

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 18 February 2025 at 09:22

🚨 Lavrov denies seeing a 3-point peace plan, calling it a fake, and says U.S.-Russia talks on Ukraine will be regular. He claims full cooperation will resume, obstacles to economic ties will be removed, NATO troops in Ukraine are unacceptable, and the U.S. proposed a moratorium on energy attacks.

— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 18 February 2025 at 14:36

Questions about Ukraine’s involvement were ignored during the Riyadh talks. U.S. and Russian officials dodged press inquiries on whether Washington is sidelining Ukraine and what concessions it seeks from Moscow. Meanwhile, negotiations continue in Diriyah Palace.

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 18 February 2025 at 09:28

US and Russia agree to address "irritants" in bilateral relations and start Ukraine talks. Both sides will appoint high-level teams to work on a sustainable path to end the conflict. The US also expressed gratitude to Saudi Arabia for hosting the Riyadh talks.

www.theguardian.com/world/live/2...

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 18 February 2025 at 12:59

Irritants = Europe.

🇵🇱 Polish President Andrzej Duda met with Trump’s envoy, Keith Kellogg, to discuss Ukraine. Duda stressed Russia must not win and Ukraine must be part of peace talks. Kellogg said Europe will stay out to avoid past mistakes.

videos.novyny.live/news/duda-vi...

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 18 February 2025 at 17:30

Past Mistakes = Standing Against Genocide.

🇺🇸 Trump is open to sending US peacekeepers to Ukraine. He also praised the US-Russia talks in Riyadh and said his confidence in resolving the war has increased. Trump added that he is disappointed with Ukraine's stance, claiming Kyiv had 3 years to negotiate.

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 18 February 2025 at 21:50

3 Years to Negotiate = 3 Years to Surrender.

🇺🇦 Zelensky: Russia's ultimatum remains—weakening Ukraine’s military, recognizing occupied lands as Russian, and installing a pro-Kremlin govt. Now, US-Russia talks feel the same: discussing Ukraine without Ukraine. If we rejected this in war’s darkest hour, why accept it now?

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 18 February 2025 at 17:56