Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

[Bofferbrauer2]

Ryuu96 said:

Questions for Germans.

1. What are the odds of the Conservative dude winning?
2. Which parties is he most likely going to partner with?
3. Do you believe his talk on being tougher against Russia than Scholz?

Annalena Baerbock always seemed tougher than Scholz too and she's from the dang Greens.

Shame to see a Conservative win but I'll take him not being a Russian stooge.

1. With the conservative guy, you mean Merz from the CDU/CSU, right? Well, the odds are very much in his favor unless something very unexpected happens.
2. With the current polling, probably the SPD of Scholz. The Greens are below the SPD in the polls and will probably not be enough to gain a majority , but with Scholz they could have. If it's not enough with the SPD, then probably the Greens will get on board, too. The CDU/CSU is currently polling at 29-33%, the SPD is at 15-17%, while the greens are sitting at 12-15%, so if they all are at the bottom of their numbers then maybe 3 parties will again be necessary to get a majority.
3. Scholz was very weak and undecisive, so yes, he will be tougher on Russia - though not by very much I fear.

One major Problem Germany faces when it comes to sending stuff to Ukraine is financing the replacement stuff. For instance, the Marder that are being sent to Ukraine are in theory getting replaced by the Puma, but with the Schuldenbremse in place Germany simply can't order enough new vehicles for their troops to replace the outgoing ones. Germany only could order 50 new Puma compared to the 140 Marder that they sent to Ukraine.

The new government can try to reform the debt brake to loosen it's strings, of which Merz and both the SPD and Greens are in favor of - but not necessarily all of the CDU/CSU, which might cause some problems getting it pushed through. They are also not in favor of Eurobonds which would circumvent the problem, So we can only hope this gets sorted out quickly.

One interesting development in the last weeks was that Germany got their first Boxer with the Skyranger 30 weapon platform, which is a short-range AA platform. The Bundeswehr has ordered those to replace their aging Gepard SPAAG, so with those in place Germany could finally send the rest of their Gepards (which are all in operational reserve) to Ukraine, where they will be a huge boon against drones and loitering munitions.