Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

[RolStoppable]

Ryuu96 said:

Questions for Germans.

1. What are the odds of the Conservative dude winning?
2. Which parties is he most likely going to partner with?
3. Do you believe his talk on being tougher against Russia than Scholz?

Annalena Baerbock always seemed tougher than Scholz too and she's from the dang Greens.

Shame to see a Conservative win but I'll take him not being a Russian stooge.

1. 100% to get the most votes. Almost 100% to lead the next government. There's a very tiny possibility that the left-wing parties of SPD, Greens and The Left (in German: Die Linke) could see a late surge and gain enough of the pie if only five parties make the 5% cut to be eligible for seats. If it's only five parties going into the next parliament, then a combined total of ~44% of the votes can be sufficient for a majority, because all the smaller parties of Germany poll at ~12% combined right now. In this scenario the left-wing could decline a coalition with the CDU and band together, despite the CDU being the single-biggest party. But currently SPD, Greens and The Left combine for only ~38% with just a week to go until the election, so gaining another 6 or even 7 percent points would be a miracle. I only mention this because it would be too funny if it actually happened.

2. Merz's CDU is going to partner with either the SPD or Greens, because his party categorically rules out coalitions with The Left and the AfD. The SPD is the more preferable option, but in general the current CDU is at odds of a similar level to both the SPD and Greens, distributed among a different set of categories. That's why the Greens can't be ruled out, not to mention that it would be stupid of the CDU to do so in advance because that would give the SPD a lot more leverage in the coalition talks.

3. Merz can be believed to be tougher on Russia than Scholz, but... that... isn't exactly a high bar we are setting here. What can be expected is that Scholz won't get a ministry if CDU+SPD happens, but it's not like the majority of the SPD disagreed with how Scholz has handled Ukraine. So realistically, CDU+SPD won't lead to significant changes in foreign policy, just minor improvements; as a specific point, I'd expect Taurus to be still off the table for Ukraine. CDU+Greens could make Taurus happen, but there are major hurdles for this coalition when it comes to domestic politics. Then again, the Greens have a habit of bending over backwards for the sake of getting at least something done instead of nothing at all.

One key feature of right-wing parties when they aren't in government is that they say a lot of things that people want to hear, but commonly with next to no explanation of how that is achievable. So just about everything Merz says at the moment is likely to get softened notably once he got his victory and not just because of concessions that need to be made to their coalition partner.