mrstickball said:
You're failing to mention anything done prior to February 2022.
Who kept buying natural gas from Russia and not embargoing when they invaded Crimea? Who kept making deals with Russia despite sovereign territory being taken over by the military?
Who prepared the Ukranians for the war with Russia between 2014 and 2022? How many NATO soldiers from Germany and France were preparing them to resist the Russians?
Who sold the Javelin missiles to Ukraine that hammered the Russian convoys around Cherniv, forcing the convoy back to Russia instead of taking Kyiv? Who trained their troops to NATO standards in the TDF before the invasion?
Without a doubt, Western Europe is doing its part now. But they sure as heck set the conditions for this to happen in the first place.
Here's some reading for you: https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN07135/SN07135.pdf
Page 3, Paragraph 2:
In contrast to the United States (see below), the UK Government ruled out providing lethal arms to Ukraine at the time. Other European leaders, including then German Chancellor Angela Merkel and then French President Francois Hollande, also openly opposed arming Ukraine.10
Totally missing from the debate of % of support of Ukraine, is aid, or wholesale lack of it, to Ukraine prior to the outbreak of hostilities. Every nation has a ton of blood on their hands from this happening in the first place including the US. But given the information we know from the start of Euromaidan, its been pretty dang clear that Western Europe slept mostly at the wheel while the groundwork was prepared for the invasion.
I do agree that Eastern Europe is doing its part. There's only so much the baltics could have done, or Poland. But I think that its very, very shameful what the rest of the West did, especially Germany and France.
Also, there's the whole 2% of NATO spending that Trump screamed about for years prior to this. Europe decided to save a percentage point instead of having arms to help the Ukranians. Its wild to think that a partner across an entire ocean can be derided for only providing slightly less than half of the military aid to Ukraine, while the neighbors that have clearly been impacted to a great degree, decided to defund their militaries for well over a decade.
Again, I will cite the UK Parliments own paper. The information provided wherewithin is pretty damning of the European defense consensus prior to 2022.
To cite that paper again:
The US provided $2.5 billion in security assistance between 2014-2021. By comparison, the UK gifted 2.2 million pounds between 2015-2017. Who participated in Joint Endeavour in 2020? Again according to the paper, the EU planned to provide $31 million over 3 years to Ukraine for a peace facility... Starting in December 2021. European defense spending was a nightmare prior to this, and so often its not mentioned as if this didn't have massive compunding effects. What if Europe had a spine and resolve similar to what America did in its aid in 2015-2021? What if other countries actually provided lethal aid to Ukraine prior to the war? Its very, very possible much of this slaughter could have been prevented, if not for much of Europe being asleep.
Yes, its awesome Europe is finally doing right after hundreds of thousands of Ukranians are dead or woudned. My problem is why it took the war for them to finally do what they were supposed to do 10 years ago to of prevented a lot of this from happening.
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I did note that the UK was a stronger supporter than most of Europe after the Crimea invasion, in terms of sanctions and such, I also acknowledged that we all still didn't do enough, including America. What did America do to Russia after Crimea? Nothing more than a slap on the wrist. Russia had no reason to fear Europe nor America because neither gave them reason to fear. Whilst Russia was still illegally occupying Crimea, Trump even during his first term, threatened to cut off aid to Ukraine.
You will not find me defending many countries in Europe decision to continue buying natural gas from Russia or rather, making themselves too reliant on it, but lets be honest, it was far easier for America to avoid Russian gas than it was for Europe so like I won't defend Europe for making themselves reliant on it, I also don't see why I should give credit to America for avoiding something so easy for them. Who can I blame for making deals? The entire world kept making deals and being friendly with Russia after Crimea, including America.
You can blame NATO for not preparing Ukraine sufficiently for Russia's full scale invasion but America is also in NATO. I know the UK trained over 18,000 Ukrainian soldiers before 2022 though. However, Ukraine's constitution makes it illegal for Ukraine to hold foreign military bases on their own soil so I doubt there were many NATO soldiers in Ukraine in the first place, but yes, we could have and should have sent more military equipment.
Now to the present, after the full-scale invasion, the UK was the first to provide NLAW missiles. The UK was the first to send Long-Range Missiles along with France. It took America literally months to decide to send Long-Range Missiles (ATACMS) out of fear of escalation. The UK was the first to send Modern Main-Battle Tanks. I'll say again, America has yet to send a single F-16 to Ukraine, they've all been European. That's not to say America is useless, there are areas which America excels in, such as HIMARS, Bradley's and pure amounts of support, but HIMAS effectiveness decreased and Russia managed to adapt better in part thanks to America's slowness and escalation management. UK and France had to beg America to allow us to send Long-Range Missiles and then beg them again to allow Ukraine to use them on Russian soil.
In the Present. America was more interested in playing Escalation Management than helping Ukraine win. I am not absolving Europe of blame though, I am simply stating that Europe isn't only to blame. You could say if Europe stood stronger against Russia after Crimea it could have deterred Russia but likewise I can say the same about America, if America stood stronger in support of Ukraine after Crimea it could have deterred Russia. Both America and Europe set these conditions to happen in the first place after the slap on the wrist they gave Russia after their invasion of Crimea (and before that, Georgia, and before that, Chechnya, and their stealing of Moldova's lands).
We all fucked up in deterring Russia and supporting Ukraine to adequate levels. We all slept at the wheel. You'll also not find me defending Merkel, I hate her approach she took with Russia. I've also strongly criticised Spain and Italy in this thread in the past because they've barely provided anything to Ukraine. You'll find me criticising UK and France for not sending more. You'll find me criticising Germany and America for playing Escalation Management and being too fearful of Russia.
The present is just as important as the past. We all fucked up in the past and now we're fucking up in the present. Both the UK, France, America and Germany could send more to Ukraine, but in the present, the UK and France have been more aggressive on dealing with Russia than America has been and I'm not talking about just sending weapons but lifting restrictions on those weapons. Germany is cowardly in offensive weaponry but amazing in defensive weaponry. In the present, the UK and France were begging America for permission to be more aggressive on Russia, along with Poland, The Baltics and Nordics. In the present, America was blocking Europe from allowing Ukraine to use their weapons how they see fit.
Trump screams about the 2% only because he wants to rile his fanbase up and bitch about NATO but the UK was hitting that 2% along with The Baltics and Poland, France wasn't hitting it but you can't say they have an unprepared military when they have one of, if not the most powerful military in Europe. Quite a few others were just bordering on the 2% but I do agree the threshold should now be higher than 2% and the current #1 is a European country (Poland) but it seems as though Eastern Europe has to suffer because of Western Europe? I don't think anyone, even America, believed Russia would be insane enough to fully invade Ukraine though...
Of course America can provide more in pure $ than other individual countries. They have a massively bigger economy, but look at the present now, that America in terms of GDP % for Military Support sits at #16 and behind many European countries. Your issue is a few European countries in Western Europe whilst ignoring all the rest doing their part.
What if Europe had a spine and did what America did in 2015-2021? By your numbers that would be $5bn across 7 years in total. Probably an extra couple tens of thousands soldiers trained. So, Russia would still invade because ultimately that definitely wouldn't have amounted to much deterrence at all. We're talking defending against a country with one of the biggest militaries in the world. It would have costed a lot more to deter Russia, we're talking tens of billions and potentially $100bn+ to modernise Ukraine and prepare them against Russia.
And Russia likely would have just invaded earlier if they saw NATO kitting Ukraine out at a faster pace anyway...But we could have still prepared them better either way, it would not have prevented the invasion in my view but it could have saved lived and shortened the full scale war, but we can't pin all the blame on Europe for that, America shares blame too, matching America's investment would have amounted to nothing in Russia's eyes either way. Now in the present I can very much say that America like many others are not pulling their weight and we all share blame for the length of time the war has dragged on.
The Democrats have been for the most part good supporters of Ukraine but they were sadly blinded by cowardice which prevented them from doing the right thing many times, in fear of escalation, then we have the Republicans who are simply looking for a reason to abandon allies and will only help if they're able to line their pockets in return. That was the crux of my criticism, that Trump pillaging Ukraine in exchange for keeping Ukraine alive was fucked up, I'm not sure why you took such offensive to that statement and how we're debating who has fucked up more.
Allies should defend allies without demanding they give up a significant portion of their resources in return. I know the world doesn't always work like that, but I will still call it out as fucked up when I see a country demanding shitty concessions in exchange for protecting lives and what does that say to all their other allies? America won't protect you unless you give up something significant in exchange?
Last edited by Ryuu96 - 44 minutes ago