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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

burninmylight said:
Norion said:

Sorry but I genuinely have no idea what you're asking me or what exactly you're arguing here.

Let's say I run a lemonade stand.

One day, I'm going to happen to have about 15 customers over the course of that day, but I don't know that yet. I can't produce enough lemonade for 15 customers in one day. I only have enough lemonade for about five of them when I first open. Which is better, me selling out the lemonade that I have and asking those customers who are currently in line to wait while I go make more, or not selling to any of them and asking them all to wait while I go make more? The latter won't help me to produce lemonade any faster; I still can only do what I can with my two hands and feet.

Either way, when I come back with more lemonade, I still don't have enough for everybody. Only now, some people will have left the line because they ain't got time to wait, and some people will be annoyed because they waited and still won't get their cup. So is it really better for my business to wait until later to start selling when the end result is the same? With the former, at least some people are satisfied, and I've pocketed some revenue.

I didn't say Nintendo should wait, I've been saying the opposite in fact. I think it releasing late this year would be better than them waiting a few extra months and releasing early next year so they can take advantage of the holiday season and have a strong quarter then instead of a weak one. I think you've misunderstood me somehow.



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burninmylight said:
javi741 said:

Nintendo adheres to a mature audience just as much as Xbox & PS do. A vast majority of Switch players are adults as shown by many studies on Switch's demographic. Nintendo also offers almost just as many mature experiences you'll see on PS & Xbox from 3rd parties and many of them sell well on Switch. Just cause more family friendly Nintendo games are the bestselling and forefront of the system doesn't make the system any less appealing for mature audiences compared to PS & Xbox. In fact, some games on Switch offer a more mature experience compared to Xbox & PS since Nintendo doesn't enforce any censors on certain graphic games unlike Sony.

Well said. There are H-games on the Switch e-shop that are more lewd or have more graphic content (I really don't like using the word "mature") than GTA, and if I had choose between the former and latter to play in a crowd full of people, I'd rather play GTA than some of those games.

People think Nintendo consoles didn't get GTA games back in the day because of some supposed moral stance when it really just came down to moneyhatting from platform holders to either keep them exclusive to one console or finally get them on another. Nintendo stayed out of that, meanwhile it got games that were just as "mature" and edgy (if not more) like True Crime and its sequel, Dead To Rights and BMX XXX all on the GCN. The Wii got freaking Manhunt 2. The DS got GTA Chinatown Wars. Nintendo published Devil's Turd Third on the Wii U.

Manhunt 2, oh yes, that was something! I don't want to go off topic here but these are all M rated games for adults, so censorship for adults is absolutely nothing I can support as distasteful as some things can be! As an adult you can judge and you can just judge to just ignore it and not buy it - end of story. Otherwise, we are no better than a totalitarian China or a religious state like Iran! The state or the religion should never be in charge to decide what is good or bad for adult persons (of course there are laws the state has to enforce but that would go to far here for this topic) - the adult people themselved should always be in charge! Of course, a company can decide for themselves what content they allow in their products but that's something else.

I'm aware that Stinamin_ has just expressed his personal opinion and doesn't want that the state forbid games like GTA but it's always a bit delicate to express personal opinons and extrapolate them (in the sense of "GTA should not be allowed" instead of "I don't like the morally questionable content of GTA and therefore would never buy such a game"). What if someone says: "I don't like people of colour in games, game companies should agree among themselves that no such chracters will appear in any game". It also would be a personal opinion. As long as such a person would decide quietly for him-/herself to never play a game where people of colour appear, it's fine but if you express such an opinion you will be banned on forums (and probably will face other problems as well). Sure, moral and racism are two different cup of teas but for some people violent-morally ill-games are important for them, they serve as a catharsis for them, for example to at least taking revenge virtually for something that was done wrong on you in your real life but you can't do anything against it in real life.

Sorry, for being off topic here but we are adult people here, we can dig into adult topics from time to time.



Fight-the-Streets said:
burninmylight said:

Well said. There are H-games on the Switch e-shop that are more lewd or have more graphic content (I really don't like using the word "mature") than GTA, and if I had choose between the former and latter to play in a crowd full of people, I'd rather play GTA than some of those games.

People think Nintendo consoles didn't get GTA games back in the day because of some supposed moral stance when it really just came down to moneyhatting from platform holders to either keep them exclusive to one console or finally get them on another. Nintendo stayed out of that, meanwhile it got games that were just as "mature" and edgy (if not more) like True Crime and its sequel, Dead To Rights and BMX XXX all on the GCN. The Wii got freaking Manhunt 2. The DS got GTA Chinatown Wars. Nintendo published Devil's Turd Third on the Wii U.

Manhunt 2, oh yes, that was something! I don't want to go off topic here but these are all M rated games for adults, so censorship for adults is absolutely nothing I can support as distasteful as some things can be! As an adult you can judge and you can just judge to just ignore it and not buy it - end of story. Otherwise, we are no better than a totalitarian China or a religious state like Iran! The state or the religion should never be in charge to decide what is good or bad for adult persons (of course there are laws the state has to enforce but that would go to far here for this topic) - the adult people themselved should always be in charge! Of course, a company can decide for themselves what content they allow in their products but that's something else.

I'm aware that Stinamin_ has just expressed his personal opinion and doesn't want that the state forbid games like GTA but it's always a bit delicate to express personal opinons and extrapolate them (in the sense of "GTA should not be allowed" instead of "I don't like the morally questionable content of GTA and therefore would never buy such a game"). What if someone says: "I don't like people of colour in games, game companies should agree among themselves that no such chracters will appear in any game". It also would be a personal opinion. As long as such a person would decide quietly for him-/herself to never play a game where people of colour appear, it's fine but if you express such an opinion you will be banned on forums (and probably will face other problems as well). Sure, moral and racism are two different cup of teas but for some people violent-morally ill-games are important for them, they serve as a catharsis for them, for example to at least taking revenge virtually for something that was done wrong on you in your real life but you can't do anything against it in real life.

Sorry, for being off topic here but we are adult people here, we can dig into adult topics from time to time.

I apologize for the personal opinion. And I do agree with you bolded words. And I am aware that people have the ability to choose what they purchase and play.

Back to the topic of 160M+, do we happen to know what the number of units sold are in Mexico or South America? I feel like that area has a lot of untapped potential to sell/ship many millions of units, especially if the Switch receives a price drop.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Radek said:

Isn't it wild Switch already outsold Wii U 10:1 in less than 7 years lol

I had forgotten Wii U sales were that bad.
Looking back, I can understand why they cut the life cycle of it short, and came out with a new system sooner rather than later.

They knew the hardware design was flawed, and the marketing and price, wouldn't allow them to recover.
So instead of trying to polish a turd, they focused on makeing a new console.

It felt bad as a Wii U owner, that there was "dry spells" with few games.
However as a Switch owner, it feels like everything done by them makes total sense from a business perspective.
And honestly the Switch is a awesome system. The fact that the Switch got basically all the good Wii U games ported over...

Wii U is now one of those "oh yeah, I nearly forgot".



aTokenYeti said:

I don’t remember what I said a few years ago in this thread, but I do know I was absolutely convinced the Switch successor device was going to launch in Q1 2024.

If Switch 2 is really launching Q1 2025, and we assume they aren’t just going to stop selling the regular switch immediately, I don’t see a scenario where the Switch sells less than 160 million consoles lifetime.

This.  I was 100% on team, 2024.

Didn't think they would wait until 2025.

160m is legit possible now.

*edit:

I was also, of the opinion that nintendo were being greedy with the price of the switch, and that they could sell it at break end point, and have it be like almost 100$ cheaper than they did.  Which was what I thought, they would need to do, to go above the 160m sales. Turns out I was wrong, Nintendo can demand a primium on hardware (unlike playstation/xbox, that sell their consoles at almost a loss), and still break 160m.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 24 February 2024

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JRPGfan said:
Radek said:

Isn't it wild Switch already outsold Wii U 10:1 in less than 7 years lol

I had forgotten Wii U sales were that bad.
Looking back, I can understand why they cut the life cycle of it short, and came out with a new system sooner rather than later.

They knew the hardware design was flawed, and the marketing and price, wouldn't allow them to recover.
So instead of trying to polish a turd, they focused on makeing a new console.

It felt bad as a Wii U owner, that there was "dry spells" with few games.
However as a Switch owner, it feels like everything done by them makes total sense from a business perspective.
And honestly the Switch is a awesome system. The fact that the Switch got basically all the good Wii U games ported over...

Wii U is now one of those "oh yeah, I nearly forgot".

I was one of those WiiU owners, and yeah it was rather "depressing". But the WiiU era brought some new franchises, and games to us.

Mario Kart 8, DK Tropical Freeze, Super Mario 3D World, Splatoon franchise, Captain Toad, Super Mario Maker, Bayonetta, and Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild.

Honestly, I'm glad Nintendo decided to bring Wii U games to the Switch and continue franchises to the Switch as well (even if I don't play or like them all). It was a smart business decision. Hopefully we can see more ports to the Switch from "older" Nintendo consoles. What kind of "older" games would you think would help sell more Switch units?



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

The most shocking statistic for me is that Mario Kart 8 Deluxe on Switch alone has sold approximately 60% OF THE ENTIRE LIFETIME SOFTWARE SALES OF THE WII U! One Switch game alone sold 60% of all Wii U Software , insane



javi741 said:

The most shocking statistic for me is that Mario Kart 8 Deluxe on Switch alone has sold approximately 60% OF THE ENTIRE LIFETIME SOFTWARE SALES OF THE WII U! One Switch game alone sold 60% of all Wii U Software , insane

Ngl, I didn't know that. That is super wild. So the sales of two games, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe and Animal Crossing: New Horizons, that equates the for 100% of the entire lifetime sales of the WiiU. Granted those are the two best selling games on the Switch, but that is super impressive. :)



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Norion said:
burninmylight said:

Let's say I run a lemonade stand.

One day, I'm going to happen to have about 15 customers over the course of that day, but I don't know that yet. I can't produce enough lemonade for 15 customers in one day. I only have enough lemonade for about five of them when I first open. Which is better, me selling out the lemonade that I have and asking those customers who are currently in line to wait while I go make more, or not selling to any of them and asking them all to wait while I go make more? The latter won't help me to produce lemonade any faster; I still can only do what I can with my two hands and feet.

Either way, when I come back with more lemonade, I still don't have enough for everybody. Only now, some people will have left the line because they ain't got time to wait, and some people will be annoyed because they waited and still won't get their cup. So is it really better for my business to wait until later to start selling when the end result is the same? With the former, at least some people are satisfied, and I've pocketed some revenue.

I didn't say Nintendo should wait, I've been saying the opposite in fact. I think it releasing late this year would be better than them waiting a few extra months and releasing early next year so they can take advantage of the holiday season and have a strong quarter then instead of a weak one. I think you've misunderstood me somehow.

No misunderstanding at all. Your point has remained the same: that Nintendo should have released the Switch during the holiday season to sell more units. When trying to come up with an example, I didn't use the most apt one.

Going back to my lemonade stand, I should've asked which would be better: selling the cups I made in the morning to some customers and being aware that my goods and services are in high demand, or waiting until the evening to open my stand without having nearly as firm of an idea how in-demand my goods and services are? My supply can't match the demand either way, but t least I'm not blindsided as much in the former.

Norion said:

I'm saying it releasing in late 2016 would've made it sell faster than it did if they were able to get the first year software and enough stock ready by then. The Switch releasing early March was done out of necessity, not cause they thought it would be a better time than November. 

They're not facts yeah but when there's this much smoke there is likely fire and they obviously had a launch period in mind, this sort of stuff is planned years in advance. 

Norion said:

Read the bolded parts. I am talking about a hypothetical to show why towards the end of a year is the best time to launch a new console. 

And Nintendo proved to you that the best time to launch a console is whenever the the hell the platform holder is good and ready to launch it. Sony and Microsoft proved to you that Santa couldn't make a Christmas miracle happen for a whole lot of well-behaved kids who wanted to wake up to a PS5 or an XSX sitting under the tree on on December 25.

The Switch flew off shelves in March 2017, and Nintendo couldn't produce units fast enough for the first couple of years, give or take. How would releasing it in Holiday 2016 be any different? What, they would have sold .0000002 seconds faster on average, leaving Nintendo with the same supply issue?

I need you to explain why having an earlier launch would have increased the availability of stock. Because the issue Nintendo had with the Switch for the first couple of years wasn't trying to sell the Switch, but trying to get it into the hands of the people demanding it.

I could see you possibly having a point if you were saying that if the Switch released a few months earlier, then the insane demand for it would have been apparent sooner and Nintendo would have kicked production into overdrive much earlier or something, but I don't get the impression that's the point you're making.

Norion said:

I think it releasing late this year would be better than them waiting a few extra months and releasing early next year so they can take advantage of the holiday season and have a strong quarter then instead of a weak one.

I think the richest company in Japan will be all right and I trust that it knows what it's doing.

Last edited by burninmylight - on 24 February 2024

burninmylight said:
Norion said:

I'm saying it releasing in late 2016 would've made it sell faster than it did if they were able to get the first year software and enough stock ready by then. The Switch releasing early March was done out of necessity, not cause they thought it would be a better time than November. 

They're not facts yeah but when there's this much smoke there is likely fire and they obviously had a launch period in mind, this sort of stuff is planned years in advance. 

Norion said:

Read the bolded parts. I am talking about a hypothetical to show why towards the end of a year is the best time to launch a new console. 

And Nintendo proved to you that the best time to launch a console is whenever the the hell the platform holder is good and ready to launch it. Sony and Microsoft proved to you that Santa couldn't make a Christmas miracle happen for a whole lot of well-behaved kids who wanted to wake up to a PS5 or an XSX sitting under the tree on on December 25.

The Switch flew off shelves in March 2017, and Nintendo couldn't produce units fast enough for the first couple of years, give or take. How would releasing it in Holiday 2016 be any different? What, they would have sold .0000002 seconds faster on average, leaving Nintendo with the same supply issue?

I need you to explain why having an earlier launch would have increased the availability of stock. Because the issue Nintendo had with the Switch for the first couple of years wasn't trying to sell the Switch, but trying to get it into the hands of the people demanding it.

I could see you possibly having a point if you were saying that if the Switch released a few months earlier, then the insane demand for it would have been apparent sooner and Nintendo would have kicked production into overdrive much earlier or something, but I don't get the impression that's the point you're making.

You're taking a hypothetical far too seriously. If Nintendo had enough software and Switch stock ready by late 2016 it launching then instead of early March would've been better. That didn't turn out to be feasible for them but it would've been better if it did. This seems like a clear fact so I'm not sure what you're arguing against exactly. 

Last edited by Norion - on 24 February 2024