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burninmylight on 24 February 2024
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Norion said:
burninmylight said:

Let's say I run a lemonade stand.

One day, I'm going to happen to have about 15 customers over the course of that day, but I don't know that yet. I can't produce enough lemonade for 15 customers in one day. I only have enough lemonade for about five of them when I first open. Which is better, me selling out the lemonade that I have and asking those customers who are currently in line to wait while I go make more, or not selling to any of them and asking them all to wait while I go make more? The latter won't help me to produce lemonade any faster; I still can only do what I can with my two hands and feet.

Either way, when I come back with more lemonade, I still don't have enough for everybody. Only now, some people will have left the line because they ain't got time to wait, and some people will be annoyed because they waited and still won't get their cup. So is it really better for my business to wait until later to start selling when the end result is the same? With the former, at least some people are satisfied, and I've pocketed some revenue.

I didn't say Nintendo should wait, I've been saying the opposite in fact. I think it releasing late this year would be better than them waiting a few extra months and releasing early next year so they can take advantage of the holiday season and have a strong quarter then instead of a weak one. I think you've misunderstood me somehow.

No misunderstanding at all. Your point has remained the same: that Nintendo should have released the Switch during the holiday season to sell more units. When trying to come up with an example, I didn't use the most apt one.

Going back to my lemonade stand, I should've asked which would be better: selling the cups I made in the morning to some customers and being aware that my goods and services are in high demand, or waiting until the evening to open my stand without having nearly as firm of an idea how in-demand my goods and services are? My supply can't match the demand either way, but t least I'm not blindsided as much in the former.

Norion said:

I'm saying it releasing in late 2016 would've made it sell faster than it did if they were able to get the first year software and enough stock ready by then. The Switch releasing early March was done out of necessity, not cause they thought it would be a better time than November. 

They're not facts yeah but when there's this much smoke there is likely fire and they obviously had a launch period in mind, this sort of stuff is planned years in advance. 
Norion said:

Read the bolded parts. I am talking about a hypothetical to show why towards the end of a year is the best time to launch a new console. 

And Nintendo proved to you that the best time to launch a console is whenever the the hell the platform holder is good and ready to launch it. Sony and Microsoft proved to you that Santa couldn't make a Christmas miracle happen for a whole lot of well-behaved kids who wanted to wake up to a PS5 or an XSX sitting under the tree on on December 25.

The Switch flew off shelves in March 2017, and Nintendo couldn't produce units fast enough for the first couple of years, give or take. How would releasing it in Holiday 2016 be any different? What, they would have sold .0000002 seconds faster on average, leaving Nintendo with the same supply issue?

I need you to explain why having an earlier launch would have increased the availability of stock. Because the issue Nintendo had with the Switch for the first couple of years wasn't trying to sell the Switch, but trying to get it into the hands of the people demanding it.

I could see you possibly having a point if you were saying that if the Switch released a few months earlier, then the insane demand for it would have been apparent sooner and Nintendo would have kicked production into overdrive much earlier or something, but I don't get the impression that's the point you're making.

Norion said:

I think it releasing late this year would be better than them waiting a few extra months and releasing early next year so they can take advantage of the holiday season and have a strong quarter then instead of a weak one.

I think the richest company in Japan will be all right and I trust that it knows what it's doing.

Last edited by burninmylight - on 24 February 2024