By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

I can see this 2024.
Filling the year with zelda WW, TP, metroid prime 2 and 3. And a pokemon game for holidays.
Finally Nintendo selects.
And bundles with mario wonder.



Around the Network
PAOerfulone said:

The question we should be asking is: Where are those sales going to come from?

The Switch is already the #1 selling system of all time in Japan and it's top 3 in North America with not much more room to grow.
Even with price cuts, I think the people who want to own a Switch in those two regions have already got it and really have no interest or reason to double or triple dip unless they get a special edition console they absolutely gotta have - which after all the games that have released on it, what's left?

Metroid Prime and Donkey Kong come to mind. But Metroid has never been a system mover. Donkey Kong, maybe.
The biggest one I can think of is actually a 3rd party game in Japan, the biggest one still missing that I think a lot of people are forgetting about - Dragon Quest XII.
That game is going to do monstrous numbers in Japan when it finally comes out and I could see that serving as the Switch's swan song in its homeland.

But we are at the point where no singular big game or group of smaller games are going to make that much of a difference to where it puts the Switch over the top of the PS2. If Nintendo wants that distinction, and I don't see why they wouldn't - "The Nintendo Switch is the best-selling video game system of all time! This is the power of our IPs and brand across the world!" They'll have to play some cards that they have not needed or wanted to play up to this point, which, as many have already pointed out, are price cuts.

Granted, I don't think price cuts would do much in Japan or North America, for the reasons I already mentioned - It has pretty much reached its ceiling in those regions...
However, I think price cuts could certainly make the difference in Europe and the Rest of the World. The Switch still trails the DS and Game Boy by considerable margins in Europe, so there's room to grow there. And in the Rest of the World, the Switch has blown all previous Nintendo products out of the water and is reaching PS4/PS2 numbers there while maintaining solid levels of sales. In fact, the "Other" region was the only region where Switch sales are actually UP from the year prior! 
(https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2024/240206e.pdf)
So, there's no telling what the ceiling is in the other regions.

When Switch 2 finally does come out, it is going to be up there in terms of price. $400 seems like the likely landing spot and I think $450 is much more likely than $350. While I don't think that will stop it in North America or Japan where Nintendo's brand and presence is strongest, I could see it struggling to get going in Europe and the other, smaller regions because of it - Even with a strong launch lineup.
Because of this, price cuts for all Switch 1 models could be the way to keep the revenue flowing in Europe and ROTW until Switch 2 REALLY gets going in Years 2-3.
They could discontinue the regular model altogether and just go w/ Switch Lite at $150 and Switch OLED at $250. This could help maintain a respectable baseline of sales for Switch 1 post-Switch 2 launch, similar to how PS2 was able to maintain a solid baseline post-PS3 launch. (Granted, there were other factors involved that led to that, mostly on Sony botching the PS3's launch, but still.)

If they do that, I think that would ultimately be what gets the Switch over the top.

I'm from Brazil (Rest of the World) and here defenetly there are A LOT of people who still don't have a Switch and could possibily buy one if Nintendo did some tatics like creating Nintendo Select for Switch Games, brought more bundles and, most importantly, did a price cut in any of the Switch model



CourageTCD said:
PAOerfulone said:

The question we should be asking is: Where are those sales going to come from?

The Switch is already the #1 selling system of all time in Japan and it's top 3 in North America with not much more room to grow.
Even with price cuts, I think the people who want to own a Switch in those two regions have already got it and really have no interest or reason to double or triple dip unless they get a special edition console they absolutely gotta have - which after all the games that have released on it, what's left?

Metroid Prime and Donkey Kong come to mind. But Metroid has never been a system mover. Donkey Kong, maybe.
The biggest one I can think of is actually a 3rd party game in Japan, the biggest one still missing that I think a lot of people are forgetting about - Dragon Quest XII.
That game is going to do monstrous numbers in Japan when it finally comes out and I could see that serving as the Switch's swan song in its homeland.

But we are at the point where no singular big game or group of smaller games are going to make that much of a difference to where it puts the Switch over the top of the PS2. If Nintendo wants that distinction, and I don't see why they wouldn't - "The Nintendo Switch is the best-selling video game system of all time! This is the power of our IPs and brand across the world!" They'll have to play some cards that they have not needed or wanted to play up to this point, which, as many have already pointed out, are price cuts.

Granted, I don't think price cuts would do much in Japan or North America, for the reasons I already mentioned - It has pretty much reached its ceiling in those regions...
However, I think price cuts could certainly make the difference in Europe and the Rest of the World. The Switch still trails the DS and Game Boy by considerable margins in Europe, so there's room to grow there. And in the Rest of the World, the Switch has blown all previous Nintendo products out of the water and is reaching PS4/PS2 numbers there while maintaining solid levels of sales. In fact, the "Other" region was the only region where Switch sales are actually UP from the year prior! 
(https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2024/240206e.pdf)
So, there's no telling what the ceiling is in the other regions.

When Switch 2 finally does come out, it is going to be up there in terms of price. $400 seems like the likely landing spot and I think $450 is much more likely than $350. While I don't think that will stop it in North America or Japan where Nintendo's brand and presence is strongest, I could see it struggling to get going in Europe and the other, smaller regions because of it - Even with a strong launch lineup.
Because of this, price cuts for all Switch 1 models could be the way to keep the revenue flowing in Europe and ROTW until Switch 2 REALLY gets going in Years 2-3.
They could discontinue the regular model altogether and just go w/ Switch Lite at $150 and Switch OLED at $250. This could help maintain a respectable baseline of sales for Switch 1 post-Switch 2 launch, similar to how PS2 was able to maintain a solid baseline post-PS3 launch. (Granted, there were other factors involved that led to that, mostly on Sony botching the PS3's launch, but still.)

If they do that, I think that would ultimately be what gets the Switch over the top.

I'm from Brazil (Rest of the World) and here defenetly there are A LOT of people who still don't have a Switch and could possibily buy one if Nintendo did some tatics like creating Nintendo Select for Switch Games, brought more bundles and, most importantly, did a price cut in any of the Switch model

Nintendo is definitely losing on developing markets by not doing the things you said. Especially the game prices are big problem, because you need games on your system, this is even a bigger deal than a price cut honestly. Why are 7 year old games still $60?



If it turns out the next system really is coming in 2025 I do hope Nintendo puts some effort into pushing Switch sales this last year because I doubt their 2024 lineup will garner them much attention. A pricecut is definitely off the table but making $300 bundles for TotK and Wonder would go a very long way.

Their main priority is of course getting ready for a big launch for the next system but a year of relative irrelevance for their only system on the market wouldn't be too good either and I really doubt any switches they sell now could hurt the Switch 2 launch, it's likely to be selling out for months anyways. Even if they do nothing it probably won't end up too bad a year for them, but I certainly don't think there would be any harm in keeping the momentum going as much as possible.



Try out my free game on Steam

2024 OpenCritic Prediction Leagues:

Nintendo | PlayStation | Multiplat

PAOerfulone said:

The question we should be asking is: Where are those sales going to come from?

The Switch is already the #1 selling system of all time in Japan and it's top 3 in North America with not much more room to grow.
Even with price cuts, I think the people who want to own a Switch in those two regions have already got it and really have no interest or reason to double or triple dip unless they get a special edition console they absolutely gotta have - which after all the games that have released on it, what's left?

Metroid Prime and Donkey Kong come to mind. But Metroid has never been a system mover. Donkey Kong, maybe.
The biggest one I can think of is actually a 3rd party game in Japan, the biggest one still missing that I think a lot of people are forgetting about - Dragon Quest XII.
That game is going to do monstrous numbers in Japan when it finally comes out and I could see that serving as the Switch's swan song in its homeland.

But we are at the point where no singular big game or group of smaller games are going to make that much of a difference to where it puts the Switch over the top of the PS2. If Nintendo wants that distinction, and I don't see why they wouldn't - "The Nintendo Switch is the best-selling video game system of all time! This is the power of our IPs and brand across the world!" They'll have to play some cards that they have not needed or wanted to play up to this point, which, as many have already pointed out, are price cuts.

Granted, I don't think price cuts would do much in Japan or North America, for the reasons I already mentioned - It has pretty much reached its ceiling in those regions...
However, I think price cuts could certainly make the difference in Europe and the Rest of the World. The Switch still trails the DS and Game Boy by considerable margins in Europe, so there's room to grow there. And in the Rest of the World, the Switch has blown all previous Nintendo products out of the water and is reaching PS4/PS2 numbers there while maintaining solid levels of sales. In fact, the "Other" region was the only region where Switch sales are actually UP from the year prior! 
(https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2024/240206e.pdf)
So, there's no telling what the ceiling is in the other regions.

When Switch 2 finally does come out, it is going to be up there in terms of price. $400 seems like the likely landing spot and I think $450 is much more likely than $350. While I don't think that will stop it in North America or Japan where Nintendo's brand and presence is strongest, I could see it struggling to get going in Europe and the other, smaller regions because of it - Even with a strong launch lineup.
Because of this, price cuts for all Switch 1 models could be the way to keep the revenue flowing in Europe and ROTW until Switch 2 REALLY gets going in Years 2-3.
They could discontinue the regular model altogether and just go w/ Switch Lite at $150 and Switch OLED at $250. This could help maintain a respectable baseline of sales for Switch 1 post-Switch 2 launch, similar to how PS2 was able to maintain a solid baseline post-PS3 launch. (Granted, there were other factors involved that led to that, mostly on Sony botching the PS3's launch, but still.)

If they do that, I think that would ultimately be what gets the Switch over the top.

Each year millions of kids reach an age where the parents think it's time for their own gaming device. Nintendo being the family friendly choice, would be on pole position for a purchase.



Around the Network

Question to VGChartz.

Is it possible for a VGCartz site representative to reach out to Sony (customer service, public relations) to ask for an official number on PS2 sales?

Currently it's debatable and different outlets have different views. If the Switch comes close, it would be good to have something affirmative from Sony to prevent ever lasting discussions.

Cheers!



Tober said:

Question to VGChartz.

Is it possible for a VGCartz site representative to reach out to Sony (customer service, public relations) to ask for an official number on PS2 sales?

Currently it's debatable and different outlets have different views. If the Switch comes close, it would be good to have something affirmative from Sony to prevent ever lasting discussions.

Cheers!

I good idea but do they even bother about a niche site like VGChartz? I actually tried to contact Sony myself about that but even finding an email address or something where your request would even have a remote chance to get read was impossible.



Radek said:
CourageTCD said:

I'm from Brazil (Rest of the World) and here defenetly there are A LOT of people who still don't have a Switch and could possibily buy one if Nintendo did some tatics like creating Nintendo Select for Switch Games, brought more bundles and, most importantly, did a price cut in any of the Switch model

Nintendo is definitely losing on developing markets by not doing the things you said. Especially the game prices are big problem, because you need games on your system, this is even a bigger deal than a price cut honestly. Why are 7 year old games still $60?

And that's where Nintendo Selects can come in.



If it is indeed delayed to early 2025 hopefully they do something to spur sales this year. Otherwise Switch sales are probably gonna get pretty ugly this summer and for the holidays. Dropping a bunch of first party games to $30 with the Nintendo Selects thing, and a $50 price cut on all models should be good enough to get one final solid year of sales even with no first party games of note coming. If they put out Zelda Wind Waker, Twilight Princess, Prime 1, and Prime 2 it could actually be an alright final year and not go crawling into the next gen launch.

So if launch isn't until early 2025 Switch will likely be over 150 million sold by the launch. Not sure it'd be able to pass PS2 though, given that the two systems are going to be very similarly priced if Switch doesn't get a solid price cut, there would essentially be no reason for anyone to buy a Switch anymore except for some people picking up the budget Lite.



I'm brazilian too, and that's true. The Switch isn't as popular here as, for example, the PS2 was. Even as a die hard Nintendo fan, even I had one. Everyone here did. Besides that the games for the system where reeeeeally cheap, one thing in which Nintendo is flawed at. Official Nintendo games are unbelievably pricy for the average customer here, wich turn costumers away from your product. So yeah Nintendo selects and a price cut would really give the system some kind of boost.