Wouldn't be a smart move to market its follow up as ''the successor of the best selling console ever''?
Switch can go for another year with 10-11m sales... It depends on how tolerant would the investors be...
Given on how much money switch made, I guess they should be a lot...
IF switch 2 releases in 2024 , I won't fathom why they didn't wait one year to release super mario bros wonder exclusively on switch 2 as the flagship game obviously (switch has so many mario platformers, some that came out really close to each other, and whatever effect this had to their sales).
I will deem it as waste of a system seller...

In the history of Nintendo, there has only been one console with a launch title that wasn't a Mario-related title or a Legend of Zelda title, and there has never been a Metroid game as a Nintendo console launch title.
Color TV-Game 6- Light Tennis
NES- Super Mario Bros.
SNES- Super Mario World
Nintendo Virtual Boy- Mario's Tennis
Nintendo 64- Super Mario 64
Nintendo Gamecube- Luigi's Mansion
Nintendo Wii- Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess & Wii Sports
Nintendo WiiU- New Super Mario Bros. U
Nintendo Switch- Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild

Out of the handhelds it's been a 50/50:
Gameboy- Super Mario Land
Gameboy Advance- F-Zero Maximum Velocity
DS- Super Mario 64 DS
3DS- Pilotwings: Resort

The first two big game franchises that Nintendo released was Super Mario and Legend of Zelda, those are their babies, hence why we are getting a Legend of Zelda Movie right after the success of the Super Mario Bros. Movie, so based on this I expect to see a huge Legend of Zelda game to come out the same year the movie does (sometime before 2027).
Nintendo won't be returning to a home console and handheld situation, they will be sticking with the hybrid model. And based on the pattern we see from Gamecube to now, I will make the assumption that the launch title for the NG will be a new 3-D Mario Adventure.


Now, Nintendo could do what Nintendo does best and innovate. They could release two or three big Nintendo game franchises at the same time. Metroid Prime 4, 3D Mario Adventure, and Experimental. But the only one that would be recognized as the dedicated launch title will the 3D Mario Adventure.


MP4 was being worked on by Konami back in 2017, and announced that they scrapped the whole thing back in January of 2019. So it has been 4 years almost 5 since then. And a very reliable source, PapaGenos has given information regarding its timeline on where Retro Studio stand with MP4. He "reported on the Gaming Leaks and Rumors subreddit, the development of the fourth entry in the series is basically done and has been for a good while."
The reason why it isn't released yet is because the cutscenes have been deemed to be very bad in quality.
The game is essentially done and requires a bit more rendering, it will be out soon.

Will I be disappointed if MP4 releases on the NG? No. Will I be disappointed if MP4 releases on the Switch? No. Nintendo knows what they want, and their developers are still focusing on the Switch (with a couple starting to develop NG games according to the rumor that multiple developers have their hands on NG dev kits).

It may not sell a lot of console but it surely can help to excite the core fanbase for the launch of the system and create even more of a launch window demand for the system. 

I fully agree, it won't be a huge mistake. Nintendo will be smart about their game releases. And they know their timetable for the next 4 years most likely. If it is a cross-gen then it will release with other 1st party Nintendo published/developed games, but it won't be seen as the dedicated launch title.


And I hate to be the bearer of bad news but Metroid does ok. It's not a system seller genre.
These are the 9 Metroid games that I can find with their respective units sold.

In total of these 9 games, the Metroid series has sold 16.67M. The equivalence of 1.85M units sold per game. Which is on par with the Xenoblade Chronicles franchise. I expect Metroid Prime 4 to be selling around a maximum of 4M units. But I dont think it will be a console seller, not like the Zelda franchise, or the Mario franchise.

I think though that it will sell some units just not nearly as many as Zelda.  Its more of a niche but its got a hardcore following and the most recent game was the best selling Metroid game of them all. So that's progress.  For example Fire Emblem is a more niche IP as well but i know someone who only buys nintendo consoles for it. So in a way it is indeed selling some systems the way Metroid does. 

Of course it will sell some console units.
Now I'm wondering if Nintendo will release a Metroid Prime 4 Special Edition Nintendo Switch. They didn't release one for Metroid Dread (unless that was the white OLED), nor did they release one for Xenoblade Chronicles, Fire Emblem, or Switch Sports.

Why do we think that is? Did they think those franchises don't deserve the love, unlike Labo?
I personally believe that if very major Nintendo release was given a Special Edition Switch, we would be a lot closer to 140M today. I feel like the Special Editions help boost the Switch, depending on the game and the design.

What kind of special edition Switch versions would you love to see?
What kind of special edition Switch version would you immediately buy?

MP4 as a killer app hardware showcase for Switch 2 is the only hope Metroid ever has of breaking out of its somewhat niche status among Nintendo IPs. Much like BotW blew everyone away and broke Zelda into juggernaut territory. The difference in why BotW could be cross gen and do that is because Switch was not a big hardware jump. Switch 2 will be. An MP4 built for the Switch in 2024 or 2025 is going to entice no one outside of the core fanbase, so the franchise is just going to stay where it’s at and likely end up a situation where Nintendo abandons it again for years on end.

BOTW is an open world game in a market thst love open world games, thanks for other IPs like Skyrim and The Witcher 3. It was the right game for the right moment

The only way for MP4 to have a breaktrough status like BOTW is changing its core metroidvania genre and going for a more mainstream route. There is no other way around it.

The switch is on it's way to 160 million.

A game can be a hardware showcase while also being on a previous generation device. PS5/XSX are three years old and only have a handful of AAA titles that aren’t on PS4/XBO, many of their best looking games are cross-gen or updated ports.

I also wouldn’t be surprised if some of those PS5/XSX exclusives could run on PS4/XBO and they just chose to make them exclusive. For example, after seeing God of War: Ragnarok & Horizon: Forbidden West on PS4, I have a hard time believing Spider-Man 2 couldn’t also been on PS4 if they wanted it to be.

Metroid Prime 4 can absolutely be a hardware showcase for Switch 2 even with a Switch 1 version. Higher resolution, higher/more stable frame rate, faster load times, better lighting/particle effects, etc. This is basically what most PS5/XBX games offer over their PS4/XBO versions.