With the recent news of the Switch successor and its capabilities, I feel like Switch will fall short of 160 million units. Assuming that the Switch 2 is coming out next year, I expect it to cause a major dip in Switch sales. Especially, as many of you have mentioned, given the lack of sales price. Then depending on what Nintendo wants to do, I think we can all agree that when the new console drops, its gonna take more than a $50 price drop to carry Switch sales. I think that we may see a $150 Lite price while the full console is discontinued. If we are currently at 130 million units, I can see at max another 15 million units. It may even, given enough time, catch the DS. The PS2, however, will be firmly out of range.

Nintendo's target for this fiscal year is 15 million and they are on pace to make it; this will result in just above 140m LTD by March 2024. Switch's successor won't launch before fall 2024, so your projected 145m lifetime will almost certainly be reached before the first Switch 2 unit is sold.

All the hardware price discussion for Switch and its successor by the time Switch 2 is out is speculative. But it wasn't so long ago that it was doubted that Nintendo will do anything; recently it has been confirmed that there will be value-added Switch and Switch Lite bundles as well as a Mario OLED for the final three months of 2023 at least. What 2024 holds is yet to be determined, but it's unlikely that it will be nothing.

Likewise, it's not clear yet what 2025 and beyond will bring, but Switch 2 won't be cheap and it's likely that Nintendo will want to offer something in the lower price segment until Switch 2's costs can be brought down to an adequate level to fill that role too, so the Switch platform isn't heading for an abrupt discontinuation.

Nintendo are really lucky that they can keep selling revisions but it also explains the weak attach ratio.

It's currently 10th all time (out of 31) in attachment ratio with 8.39 games sold per console according to this, which doesn't seem that bad. It's about 1.5 fewer games than the PS2 sold per console, which is 5th place all time on that list.

I'm not sure what the data suggests but I would think attachment ratio tends to go up the longer a console is on the market, so I'd assume it will end with a higher attachment ratio than it already has.

Don't let yourself get confused by a troll post. Switch's software tie ratio is more than fine.

Indeed, tie ratios grow over time. And as you've already noticed, Switch's current LTD figure isn't far off from the PS2's lifetime figure anymore. What's additionally to consider is that Nintendo does not count digital-only releases toward their reported software total.

As for the site you linked, it's highly suspicious how high Sega consoles rank on the list. Especially because none of the source links provide concrete software figures from Sega themselves. But it's far for the course that real sales information for the vast majority of consoles in video game history is very hard to impossible to come by.

I think what he is saying is a lot of people got 2 or more Switches, so the attachment ratio has taken a hit.

I got 4 of them as an example. Original, and some limited edition variants boxed never to be opened lol.

Don't let yourself get confused by a troll post.

You can view the historic progression of Switch's tie ratio here in the "Global Hardware+Software tab (purple columns). It just keeps growing.

Its fine overall, but even then its all going to Nintendo software. I doubt third-party's are going to start making the Switch the lead platform like we predicted with the Wii. People screaming for ports online really isn't going to change the Nintendo fans have been bashing them for decades now.

Is anybody suggesting this will happen?

Honestly, depending on the next forecast in October and if Nintendo feels confident to revise their previous goals up and the following successor does not come out before early 2025. I can easily see a scenario where it will have crossed the 150M before the successor launches out.

+ We need to consider the cross-gen aspects and the budget mindful people who will prolly not jump on the Super Switch right away.