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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

Valdney said:

At this point it's almost irrelevant whether the Switch sells 160 mil or not. The Switch is already the most successful console ever and it has never had a price cut.

Having said that, I still think 160 mil is very much doable depending on how long Nintendo "delays" the successor.

What metrics are you using for your claim that "The switch is already the most successful console ever" if you measure it by sales it's still the PS2 and if you measure it as software sold again the PS2, tie ratio again PS2, now this isn't to say that the Switch won't or can't claim the title of most consoles sales but at the moment your claim that it is even now the most successful console ever is dubious.

Last edited by mjk45 - on 02 August 2023

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mjk45 said:
Valdney said:

At this point it's almost irrelevant whether the Switch sells 160 mil or not. The Switch is already the most successful console ever and it has never had a price cut.

Having said that, I still think 160 mil is very much doable depending on how long Nintendo "delays" the successor.

What metrics are you using for your claim that "The switch is already the most successful console ever" if you measure it by sales it's still the PS2 and if you measure it as software sold again the PS2, tie ratio again PS2, now this isn't to say that the Switch won't or can't claim the title of most consoles sales but at the moment your claim that it is even now the most successful console ever is dubious.

Probably profit



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mjk45 said:
Valdney said:

At this point it's almost irrelevant whether the Switch sells 160 mil or not. The Switch is already the most successful console ever and it has never had a price cut.

Having said that, I still think 160 mil is very much doable depending on how long Nintendo "delays" the successor.

What metrics are you using for your claim that "The switch is already the most successful console ever" if you measure it by sales it's still the PS2 and if you measure it as software sold again the PS2, tie ratio again PS2, now this isn't to say that the Switch won't or can't claim the title of most consoles sales but at the moment your claim that it is even now the most successful console ever is dubious.

Tie ratio is PS4. Software is probably PS4 as well, with PS2 second, but Sony's been combining PS4 & PS5 software since the PS5 launched so we can't be certain. Hopefully they eventually separate the two so we can get an updated (and then eventually final) total for PS4.

Last edited by Machina - on 03 August 2023

2024: 147 million
2025: 154 million
2026: 158 million
2027: 160 million

I'd say 154 million is the bare minimum.



mjk45 said:
Valdney said:

At this point it's almost irrelevant whether the Switch sells 160 mil or not. The Switch is already the most successful console ever and it has never had a price cut.

Having said that, I still think 160 mil is very much doable depending on how long Nintendo "delays" the successor.

What metrics are you using for your claim that "The switch is already the most successful console ever" if you measure it by sales it's still the PS2 and if you measure it as software sold again the PS2, tie ratio again PS2, now this isn't to say that the Switch won't or can't claim the title of most consoles sales but at the moment your claim that it is even now the most successful console ever is dubious.

Probably in terms of profitability. Switch has never had a significant cut, not much bundling, most first party games are sold at full price, digital sales didn't exist for ps2, dlc, online subscription, digital only games are not counted towards overall software sales so software sales are likely significantly higher on switch than we can see. Also ps2 was sold at a loss st launch.



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mjk45 said:
Valdney said:

At this point it's almost irrelevant whether the Switch sells 160 mil or not. The Switch is already the most successful console ever and it has never had a price cut.

Having said that, I still think 160 mil is very much doable depending on how long Nintendo "delays" the successor.

What metrics are you using for your claim that "The switch is already the most successful console ever" if you measure it by sales it's still the PS2 and if you measure it as software sold again the PS2, tie ratio again PS2, now this isn't to say that the Switch won't or can't claim the title of most consoles sales but at the moment your claim that it is even now the most successful console ever is dubious.

There's nothing dubious about my claim at all. It is a fact. I am using the only metric that actually matters at the end: profits. 

Now you can make other comparisons too if you like. For example: How much did the top 20 Ps2 games sell compared to Switch's top 20? How many of those top 20 were evergreen tittles that kept selling for years on end? How many of those were first party? (which actually shows the strength of the platform software-wise) What is the fastest selling console between the 2? so on and so forth. Saying that the PS2 is the most successful console ever is the actual dubious claim. 



3.91m to add to the total, now at 129.53m LTD. This year's forecast of 15m is basically in the bag already, unless Super Mario Bros. Wonder shocks everyone by somehow falling short of shipping 20m+ in its opening quarter.

We can expect 141m+ by March 2024, so 150m LTD is feasible by the end of 2024 if the Switch successor launches in fall 2024. Even in this timeline 160m+ remain realistic. Obviously, because one additional quarter doesn't change the outlook much in comparison to before. Least of all a quarter with great numbers.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

RolStoppable said:

3.91m to add to the total, now at 129.53m LTD. This year's forecast of 15m is basically in the bag already, unless Super Mario Bros. Wonder shocks everyone by somehow falling short of shipping 20m+ in its opening quarter.

We can expect 141m+ by March 2024, so 150m LTD is feasible by the end of 2024 if the Switch successor launches in fall 2024. Even in this timeline 160m+ remain realistic. Obviously, because one additional quarter doesn't change the outlook much in comparison to before. Least of all a quarter with great numbers.

I also think 160m+ is still possible. However, you really think Nintendo just casually ships 9mil. from April to December 2024? Wouldn't about 10mil. for FY 2025 (i.e. April 2024 to March 2025) be more realistic (and still relatively high)? 



Valdney said:
mjk45 said:

What metrics are you using for your claim that "The switch is already the most successful console ever" if you measure it by sales it's still the PS2 and if you measure it as software sold again the PS2, tie ratio again PS2, now this isn't to say that the Switch won't or can't claim the title of most consoles sales but at the moment your claim that it is even now the most successful console ever is dubious.

There's nothing dubious about my claim at all. It is a fact. I am using the only metric that actually matters at the end: profits. 

Now you can make other comparisons too if you like. For example: How much did the top 20 Ps2 games sell compared to Switch's top 20? How many of those top 20 were evergreen tittles that kept selling for years on end? How many of those were first party? (which actually shows the strength of the platform software-wise) What is the fastest selling console between the 2? so on and so forth. Saying that the PS2 is the most successful console ever is the actual dubious claim. 

you can cherry pick what you want but the fact is the subject matter in this thread is about sales the title is the road to 160 million and at the end of the day that title is still held by PS2 and sales  when you google most successful console  you get lists of best selling consoles and their corresponding software sales,because historically they are the most popular metrics used the PS4 made more profit for Sony than the PS2 but it isn't seen as the most successful Playstation console.



Research shows Video games  help make you smarter, so why am I an idiot

pikashoe said:
mjk45 said:

What metrics are you using for your claim that "The switch is already the most successful console ever" if you measure it by sales it's still the PS2 and if you measure it as software sold again the PS2, tie ratio again PS2, now this isn't to say that the Switch won't or can't claim the title of most consoles sales but at the moment your claim that it is even now the most successful console ever is dubious.

Probably in terms of profitability. Switch has never had a significant cut, not much bundling, most first party games are sold at full price, digital sales didn't exist for ps2, dlc, online subscription, digital only games are not counted towards overall software sales so software sales are likely significantly higher on switch than we can see. Also ps2 was sold at a loss st launch.

We can bring up this that and the other but this thread is about sales and traditionally hardware and software sales have been the arbiters of console  success and using that framework the Switch still as ground to make up like I mentioned in my reply the PS4 was Sony's most profitable console but it isn't considered the most successful whether we like it or not gamers use those sales parameters to determine  success it's why we have countless top selling lists pop up  when you google most successful console.



Research shows Video games  help make you smarter, so why am I an idiot