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Forums - Sales - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch (EDIT: See mod note in first post for new rule).

Fight-the-Streets said:

I just had a thought:

The worldwide lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020 to 2022 led to higher-than-usual birth rates. These “Corona babies” are now coming of age, which may be contributing to additional Nintendo Switch sales.

Many people believe that the pandemic directly caused extra Switch sales because people were stuck at home. But perhaps that view is slightly off. It may not be the increased sales during the pandemic itself — since many of those buyers would likely have purchased a Switch sooner or later anyway — but rather the additional children born during that time who are now reaching gaming age and driving new sales.

Where did you see that? Fertility rates weren't boosted during those years and in fact declined in at least most places.



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Norion said:
Fight-the-Streets said:

I just had a thought:

The worldwide lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020 to 2022 led to higher-than-usual birth rates. These “Corona babies” are now coming of age, which may be contributing to additional Nintendo Switch sales.

Many people believe that the pandemic directly caused extra Switch sales because people were stuck at home. But perhaps that view is slightly off. It may not be the increased sales during the pandemic itself — since many of those buyers would likely have purchased a Switch sooner or later anyway — but rather the additional children born during that time who are now reaching gaming age and driving new sales.

Where did you see that? Fertility rates weren't boosted during those years and in fact declined in at least most places.

From a purely logical perspective: When people are forced to stay at home, sex becomes a popular pastime, and contraception is not always used consistently. This pattern can also be observed in years with prolonged power outages, storms, floods, or heavy snowfall, when people are compelled to stay indoors for extended periods. Such years tend to produce slightly higher numbers of births. The COVID-19 pandemic lasted unusually long, so one would expect its effects to show up statistically as well.

It is a complex topic. My fellow ChatGPT focuses more on the general long-term trend, which indeed still points toward declining birth rates in industrialized countries. Nevertheless, during the lockdown years, more children were conceived than would likely have been the case without them.



Fight-the-Streets said:
Norion said:

Where did you see that? Fertility rates weren't boosted during those years and in fact declined in at least most places.

From a purely logical perspective: When people are forced to stay at home, sex becomes a popular pastime, and contraception is not always used consistently. This pattern can also be observed in years with prolonged power outages, storms, floods, or heavy snowfall, when people are compelled to stay indoors for extended periods. Such years tend to produce slightly higher numbers of births. The COVID-19 pandemic lasted unusually long, so one would expect its effects to show up statistically as well.

It is a complex topic. My fellow ChatGPT focuses more on the general long-term trend, which indeed still points toward declining birth rates in industrialized countries. Nevertheless, during the lockdown years, more children were conceived than would likely have been the case without them.

Data shows that the impact was tiny at most, with certain places having a relatively big decline in 2020 before slightly recovering afterwards before declining again like the US while other places like Japan it consistently declined every year from 2020-2022 so overall impact on Switch sales will be basically non-existent.



I can see a Tomodachi Life themed Switch Lite being announced in Thursday's Direct. That would add an extra 1 million sales.



Nintendo dont be stupid and release Tomodachi Life themed Switch Lite!!!



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Norion said:
Fight-the-Streets said:

From a purely logical perspective: When people are forced to stay at home, sex becomes a popular pastime, and contraception is not always used consistently. This pattern can also be observed in years with prolonged power outages, storms, floods, or heavy snowfall, when people are compelled to stay indoors for extended periods. Such years tend to produce slightly higher numbers of births. The COVID-19 pandemic lasted unusually long, so one would expect its effects to show up statistically as well.

It is a complex topic. My fellow ChatGPT focuses more on the general long-term trend, which indeed still points toward declining birth rates in industrialized countries. Nevertheless, during the lockdown years, more children were conceived than would likely have been the case without them.

Data shows that the impact was tiny at most, with certain places having a relatively big decline in 2020 before slightly recovering afterwards before declining again like the US while other places like Japan it consistently declined every year from 2020-2022 so overall impact on Switch sales will be basically non-existent.

Well, I’m not fighting on the “Corona babies” hill. In the end, it’s a small factor anyway. But in such a tight race, it’s precisely the small factors that can decide between victory and defeat.

Even though the competition between the Nintendo Switch and the PS2 is more of a marathon, I like to compare it to a ski race. There, a hundredth of a second can determine whether you win or lose.

On a launch-aligned basis, the Switch has been ahead at every intermediate split so far. The problem is that conditions in the final sector of the race have deteriorated so much that it’s no longer possible to match — let alone exceed — the PS2’s speed there. In this last sector, the Switch will therefore definitely be slower (that is, sell fewer units). The Switch enters this final sector with a lead, but can still only win if it manages to keep the damage in the final stretch reasonably under control.



Fight-the-Streets said:
Norion said:

Data shows that the impact was tiny at most, with certain places having a relatively big decline in 2020 before slightly recovering afterwards before declining again like the US while other places like Japan it consistently declined every year from 2020-2022 so overall impact on Switch sales will be basically non-existent.

Well, I’m not fighting on the “Corona babies” hill. In the end, it’s a small factor anyway. But in such a tight race, it’s precisely the small factors that can decide between victory and defeat.

Even though the competition between the Nintendo Switch and the PS2 is more of a marathon, I like to compare it to a ski race. There, a hundredth of a second can determine whether you win or lose.

On a launch-aligned basis, the Switch has been ahead at every intermediate split so far. The problem is that conditions in the final sector of the race have deteriorated so much that it’s no longer possible to match — let alone exceed — the PS2’s speed there. In this last sector, the Switch will therefore definitely be slower (that is, sell fewer units). The Switch enters this final sector with a lead, but can still only win if it manages to keep the damage in the final stretch reasonably under control.

I guess you missed the mod note so check page 1.



Norion said:
Fight-the-Streets said:

Well, I’m not fighting on the “Corona babies” hill. In the end, it’s a small factor anyway. But in such a tight race, it’s precisely the small factors that can decide between victory and defeat.

Even though the competition between the Nintendo Switch and the PS2 is more of a marathon, I like to compare it to a ski race. There, a hundredth of a second can determine whether you win or lose.

On a launch-aligned basis, the Switch has been ahead at every intermediate split so far. The problem is that conditions in the final sector of the race have deteriorated so much that it’s no longer possible to match — let alone exceed — the PS2’s speed there. In this last sector, the Switch will therefore definitely be slower (that is, sell fewer units). The Switch enters this final sector with a lead, but can still only win if it manages to keep the damage in the final stretch reasonably under control.

I guess you missed the mod note so check page 1.

Fair enough and I'm sorry. But I didn't attack the "other" console.



Fight-the-Streets said:
Norion said:

I guess you missed the mod note so check page 1.

Fair enough and I'm sorry. But I didn't attack the "other" console.

Sure though it's understandably strict to keep things in order.



It really would be useful if we had the capacity to have threadmarks on VGC like they do over on Era. That way nobody would have the excuse of "I didn't see it" when in-thread warnings are posted by a mod. They won't simply get buried as the discussion moves multiple pages past said warning (it's been 12 days since I reopened the thread, and there's already been 61 replies, amounting to two new pages with my setting of 25 posts per page, or life five or six new pages if you use default settings). There would be a conspicuous drop-down tab indicating some sort of important update to the thread. And to be fair the way forums usually work if you've already visited a thread you probably won't see the OP when clicking on it. I may have to just periodically post in-thread warnings (like every week or so) as long as this thread is running or just edit the thread title to have a parenthetical note denoting existence and date & time of the in-thread warning.



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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").