I believe Nintendo said they would continue to support the Switch for 3 years after the successor came out. Let's say that asssumes production will continue until June 2028. This matches the 3DS. 

At a drop of 60% a year, which is the expected drop-off, we will see Nintendo's 4 million sold by march 2026 for 156.1 odd sold, another 2.6 million by march 2027 158.7 million and 1.5 millions more for march 2028. That would pretty much match the PS2 sales with a few months to go.

I'd say this holiday season will be what really confirms if the NS1will likely pass the PS2.I am ammused it's still out selling the Xbox Series X/S

Surely those are credible assumptions though? No company has had 2 120+ selling consoles in a row and the consoles that have have had unique circumstances for it to happen. 120m sales for Switch 2 would be incredible, why act like that alreayd isn't an already optimistic prediction?

I just wanted to point out that if we're talking about consoles managing to reach 160M easier now, it would make more sense to bring up the Switch 2, an already record-sales console, rather than PS6. And to highlight that, when mentioning the PS6, those drawbacks I menitoned people talk against the Switch 2 aren't brought up, funnily enough

If the Switch 1 is going to do it - It's not going to come thanks to the three major markets (North America, Europe, and Japan - Although I still think they have some room to sell in Europe.) It's going to be in the smaller markets in the Rest of the World where they have to get it done.

Ideally, with Nintendo opening more and more offices and operations in smaller countries and markets like Thailand, Taiwan, Singapore, and many other countries along Southeast Asia, they'll more than likely keep Switch 1 around and producing it, albeit at a much smaller scale so that they have a great entry level system with a massive library already available to offer these markets.

And since the production of Switch 1 will be so low, they could even afford to sell it at a significantly cheaper price that's affordable for these markets - Hell, maybe they'd even be willing to sell at a loss. Because the production will be so low, that the losses wouldn't amount to much and would be absolutely dwarfed and immediately made back/covered by the hardware and software sales of Switch 2 in the three main regions of the world.

I see, that is fair enough. I don't get why people think the PS6 will be this massive hit. the fact is the more tech develops now the longer the development time for games and so fewer system sellers. I personally expect the PS6 to follow the PS5 and be the system for COD/Fortnite/FIFA/GTA online/etc annual games and like games types, just like the PS5 is with too few exclusives to really make it expode in the eyes of those who don't have one.

I genuinely don't get Sony's thinking wiht the PS6, it's only going exabercate the PS5 problems of decent sales but struggles to sell software. I can't see them doing a Nintendo and holding it back to ensure a good supple of software is ready for purchase. Even Nintendo is padding out it's software with Switch 1 upgrades, but I suspect it's going to have a stronger 2nd year of games than the Switch 1 did to maintain momentum.

I think in that last quarterly report, Nintendo mentioned something about the Switch 1 being open to cheaper markets. But it's gonna have to get cheaper IMO to exploit those markets.

As for your last paragraph, sadly Nintendo never sells at a loss. Whcih is a shame, I genuinely don't think given the direction of tech markets and their increaisng costs and production time of games that they or anyone will ever get so close to topping the 160 million mark again, it's basically now or never for Nintendo to have the world's best selling console forever.

Sony is going to run into the very same problem that Microsoft ran into this generation. Last gen, when Microsoft started releasing their first party games on PC in addition to Xbox - while it boosted their software sales, revenue, and good will towards PC gamers at the time, even Ray Charles could see the negative impact that would have on their hardware sales. And sure enough, like clockwork, that impact has come to collect on the Xbox Series as the sales for that system, after a strong first 1-2 years, has since CRATERED.

While it won't be to the same extent or severity as Microsoft w/ Xbox, Sony will run into the exact same brick wall with the PS6 now that they have started releasing their games on PC as well.

One year ago I thought the same, but then the NS2 hit 10m in record time somehow, so I'm not so sure anymore.

I don't think Switch 2 is going to do it either; In fact, I think Switch 2 will end up selling less than Switch 1.

It's off to a record-breaking start, yes. But that 2020-2022 stretch for Switch 1 was otherworldly. It was selling at levels and rates we haven't seen since peak DS/Wii era. And yes, the pandemic played a substantial role in that as there was nothing to do during that period... except play video games.

And unless something like that happens again, I don't see how Switch 2 will be able to replicate that pace or even maintain its current one.