Nintendo's report is next week, I think either the 7 8th or 9th of May

Nintendo releases their earnings on May 8 and Sony on May 14.

With only 1.26mill shipped from jan to march.
And they expect 156mill march 2026
I highly doubt switch will reach the 160mill

Only 4.5 million expected for this fiscal year. Way lower than I expected (~7 million).

Will probably end at 158-159 million.

With 1st party Switch games still slated for 2026, its reasonable to expect that Switch will still be sold financial year 2026/2027. I do expect them to drop 1 SKU by then at the latest. Would not surprise me to see a Switch Lite Tomodachi edition launching in 2026 though.

This seems about right.

Looking at the DS, Wii, and GBA's comparable years, a Nintendo platform has consistently around ~6.5m units left to sell at this point, so it has to outperform the forecast by ~20% to have a shot.

152.12 plus arouund 4.5 million puts it around 156.6 million as of March 2026. 2 - 2.5 million the next fiscal year puts it between 158.6 to 159.1 million as of March 2027. I can see it being on the market until March 2028 especially when it's likely going up against $600.00 home consoles due to the price raises and a $450 hybrid. I do think surpassing PS2 is out of reach but tying it amd we never knowing which is higher is on the table. Nintendo will never give us the produced figure like the 160.8 million for PS2 and Sony will never give us the final PS2 shipment. They both could just end up over 160 million and share the throne. Wow!

Slightly worse quarter than I was expecting and very LOW shipment forecast that would bring figures to 156.6 million shipped at the end of March 2026. 160 million is looking less likely now. Unless Nintendo ships more than 4.5 million.

The forecast of 4.5m for this fiscal year is low, but Nintendo is coming off a fiscal year where they've revised down twice and still fell short a bit. For the FY ending March 2019 they projected 20m and ended up with just under 17m which led them to forecast a cautious 18m that turned out to become just over 21m. It has been common throughout Switch's lifecycle that Nintendo's forecasts have been off by a noteworthy margin, and the final tallies happened to be equally either over or under their original expectations. That's why I commonly say "if Nintendo hits their target" because it's exceptional when their forecasts for just about anything are on point.

But regardless of if you think that 4.5m will be accurate or is a result of Nintendo erring on the low side this time around, what's clear is that the OLED model will take a big hit this fiscal year. There's not much of a point in a premium model for an old console when the next gen can be bought for $100 more. I've talked about exactly this a few times before in this thread. It's the Lite and the original Switch which will have to do the work to get past the 160m mark and they've declined year over year by only 22% each compared to the OLED's 37% drop.

In any case, this FY's 4.5m target is a lot more feasible than last FY's 13.5m. A year ago we had to speculate what Nintendo has in the bag to accomplish their lofty goal, but this time around it's probably easy to agree on Nintendo not doing much of anything.

Unless the economy crashes and the tariffs situation in the US gets worse, I expect Nintendo to reach its forecast for the fiscal year and possibly beat it by a little bit. 15 million for the Switch 2 also seems cautious.