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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

znake on 04 February 2025

It will be 156 million by August
158.5 million by December
161 million by March

Pokémon will help a lot to reach the #1



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CourageTCD on 04 February 2025
PAOerfulone said:

That Switch 2 presentation is going to make or break Switch 1's end of life cycle - Specifically that MSRP price and launch lineup.

The DS was still selling pretty well even after the 3DS launched - The main reason being the 3DS' $250 launch price, uninteresting gimmick, and lack of killer apps/great launch software made it stumble out of the gate, so fans just stuck with the DS.
Then the 3DS got that price cut to $170 - which made it the same price as the DSi and that was the beginning of the end for the DS. Fast forward to Holiday 2011 and that 1-2 combo of 3D Land and Mario Kart 7 hit shelves, and from that point on the 3DS' software started rolling in and that was all she wrote. It may have still gotten stellar software afterwards (Black/White 2) but as far as hardware sales went - the DS was done after that.

Will history repeat itself with the Switch 1 -> Switch 2 transition?
Assuming Switch 1 doesn't get a price cut at all for any models and they stay where they are - That's already one thing they'll have going against it. But if Switch 2 launches at $400 like most are expecting/predicting or even higher, while I don't think it'll struggle nearly as much as the 3DS did at $250 and it'll still sell extremely well despite the steep price - even if it's $450, that will put enough of a gap and distance between it and the Switch 1 models to where the people who are more hesitant and tight with their spending will just opt to stick with Switch 1 - Especially the base and Lite models as their entry points.
But if Switch 2 ends up being $350 - that's going to really cut a substantial amount the Switch 1's legs off to where I don't think it'll catch the PS2 at that point. And if by some miracle the Switch 2 ends up being $300 - that's 'Game Over' for Switch 1 and it'll be limping past the DS before it collapses.

Does this mean that the Switch will be able to surpass the DS but not by much or that it will come very close but won't surpass the DS?



PAOerfulone on 04 February 2025
CourageTCD said:
PAOerfulone said:

That Switch 2 presentation is going to make or break Switch 1's end of life cycle - Specifically that MSRP price and launch lineup.

The DS was still selling pretty well even after the 3DS launched - The main reason being the 3DS' $250 launch price, uninteresting gimmick, and lack of killer apps/great launch software made it stumble out of the gate, so fans just stuck with the DS.
Then the 3DS got that price cut to $170 - which made it the same price as the DSi and that was the beginning of the end for the DS. Fast forward to Holiday 2011 and that 1-2 combo of 3D Land and Mario Kart 7 hit shelves, and from that point on the 3DS' software started rolling in and that was all she wrote. It may have still gotten stellar software afterwards (Black/White 2) but as far as hardware sales went - the DS was done after that.

Will history repeat itself with the Switch 1 -> Switch 2 transition?
Assuming Switch 1 doesn't get a price cut at all for any models and they stay where they are - That's already one thing they'll have going against it. But if Switch 2 launches at $400 like most are expecting/predicting or even higher, while I don't think it'll struggle nearly as much as the 3DS did at $250 and it'll still sell extremely well despite the steep price - even if it's $450, that will put enough of a gap and distance between it and the Switch 1 models to where the people who are more hesitant and tight with their spending will just opt to stick with Switch 1 - Especially the base and Lite models as their entry points.
But if Switch 2 ends up being $350 - that's going to really cut a substantial amount the Switch 1's legs off to where I don't think it'll catch the PS2 at that point. And if by some miracle the Switch 2 ends up being $300 - that's 'Game Over' for Switch 1 and it'll be limping past the DS before it collapses.

Does this mean that the Switch will be able to surpass the DS but not by much or that it will come very close but won't surpass the DS?

It would surpass the DS, but not by much.



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CourageTCD on 04 February 2025

I can't wait to see January sales number for the Americas and Europe. We will see if the Switch 2 trailer reveal had a significant impact on Switch's sales



killer7 on 05 February 2025
Doctor_MG said:
killer7 said:

But a refurbished/ repared or forever reason returned PS2 can hardly be a seperate shipped (sold in) unit, let alone count to "produced"? If so then this 160.6 million number of produced units has to be a lot lower in reality?! So if i send my PS2 lets say in 2016 (reparing stopped in 2018) Sony would really have called it "shipped"? If so then its absolutley clear where these "160 million sold" PS2s are from. And sorry this cannot be counted as "sold". If i worked at Mercedes and sold you a car, this car breaks and i repare it, would you say i "sold" you another one? If thats true than why the hell did they said "155 million as of 2012" and changed it to "160 million as of 2012"? So:

1.) Sony counts RESOLD (already once sold) PS2s!

2.) Sony counted Demo Stations wich where in fact NOT SOLD TO COSTUMERS but sent back to Sony!

3.) Sony changed their already confirmed Numbers.

Conclusio: Sony's 160.6 million or whatever fantasynumber they "confirmed" cannot be true in the sense of consoles shipped, let alone sold through. 

Of course this requires that what you said is really true!

I'm not saying they count as numbers produced. They count as sell-in (i.e. shipped). 

But if the produced number is actually true, and 160.6 was produced, and the over 160M number includes repaired/returned units, that leaves a large portion of the discrepancy of 600k units for demo stations, which was one persons point of contention here. 

Anyway, to target your points. I think there is some misunderstandings. 

Edit: 1) I don't think Sony is double dipping a bunch per-se. I think Sony considers that if they resold a product themselves that counts as another sale. Since Sony is not a big player in the used market, it wouldn't count for much. 

2) I'm saying demo stations count for produced but not for shipped. Broken demo units sent back to Sony, fixed, and then resold to a consumer would count as a sale to Sony. 

So:

1.) As PS2 Slim also had demostations and bigger stores had more than 1 of those, also exhibitions like E3, Pax... had them there should be a lot more than 600k.

2.) A RESOLD product (a product that already counted 1 time) can hardly be seen as a sale let alone produced or shipped unit.

3.) Broken consoles- demostations or costumers systems- cannot be counted deffinitly! 

So if this was really true this 160.6 million number should be A LOT lower! Shipped consoles to stores for costumers should be clearly below 160 million! 



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Pajderman on 05 February 2025

Will Sony release a PS2 Classic mini and start to count the sales of that unit towards the total PS2 units sold?



JRPGfan on 05 February 2025
CourageTCD said:

I can't wait to see January sales number for the Americas and Europe. We will see if the Switch 2 trailer reveal had a significant impact on Switch's sales

Even if it does... at this point, I think its a given that Switch goes over 160m.

Nintendo have said they want to support it going forwards as well.
So I doubt they stop makeing them anytime soon, even after the Switch 2 is released.

Give it a slight price cut... boom... 160m+.



killer7 on 05 February 2025
JRPGfan said:
CourageTCD said:

I can't wait to see January sales number for the Americas and Europe. We will see if the Switch 2 trailer reveal had a significant impact on Switch's sales

Even if it does... at this point, I think its a given that Switch goes over 160m.

Nintendo have said they want to support it going forwards as well.
So I doubt they stop makeing them anytime soon, even after the Switch 2 is released.

Give it a slight price cut... boom... 160m+.

I don't see 160 million+ as a given (now) but 157 million minimum at march 2027 should be a lock at this point. But i am somehow still thinking of revising my original 155 million+ prediction to 157 million+ as the floor for march 2027...

Last edited by killer7 - on 05 February 2025

Kyuu on 05 February 2025

Seems like it'll end its run at 165 million if not more. The legendary PS2's days are numbered...



killer7 on 05 February 2025
Kyuu said:

Seems like it'll end its run at 165 million if not more. The legendary PS2's days are numbered...

165 million seems kinda high to me. I am a console/ handheld, also an Nintendo fan but we should keep expections realistic. For me now 155- 157 million is the LTD floor now for march 2027. Of course it could be higher than 160 million but we have to wait how sales will be this and next year.