By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

Norion on 08 April 2023
Wyrdness said:
Zippy6 said:

For the first 2 months Switch is down 23% YoY. Even if it went from being down 23% to being flat it would still only be at 132.3m by the end of October and 135.2m at the end of November after black Friday.

In reality it's going to continue to be down YoY with perhaps May as the exception. From Famitsu numbers we already know that Japan is down 33.5% YoY for March.

The 10m figure for 2024 is if a Switch 2 releases in 2024, which seems like a realistic number imo.

Black Friday onward is when sales pick up and the start of the holidays if it is 135m from being down 23% that backs what I'm pointing it because Switch will sell a further 2-3m after that that puts the Switch at 137-138m by the end of this year, being down 20-25% YOY is still 17m that continuing next year would be 14m which as I pointed out to someone else earlier that is 31m that puts the Switch at 153m by the end of next. It's down in Japan according to Famitsu but is still the top selling platform there by a significant margin Switch has gone from extraordinary sales to normal level of sales which for at platform that is seven years old bolds well for it's LT sales.

Your math is wrong. If it's 20-25% down this year it won't do 17m, it'll do 14-15m thus there's no chance it does 14m next year.



Around the Network
Zippy6 on 08 April 2023
Norion said:
Wyrdness said:

Black Friday onward is when sales pick up and the start of the holidays if it is 135m from being down 23% that backs what I'm pointing it because Switch will sell a further 2-3m after that that puts the Switch at 137-138m by the end of this year, being down 20-25% YOY is still 17m that continuing next year would be 14m which as I pointed out to someone else earlier that is 31m that puts the Switch at 153m by the end of next. It's down in Japan according to Famitsu but is still the top selling platform there by a significant margin Switch has gone from extraordinary sales to normal level of sales which for at platform that is seven years old bolds well for it's LT sales.

Your math is wrong. If it's 20-25% down this year it won't do 17m, it'll do 14-15m thus there's no chance it does 14m next year.

Yes, 20-25% down YoY would be between 14.45m and 15.41m this year. That same drop continuing (let's say 22.5% each year) would bring sales down to 11.57m for 2024.



rapsuperstar31 on 08 April 2023

I know my nephew just bought one, and some older lady down in Florida who couldn't stop talking about it with her table for 30 minutes at a bar the other day, so it is still finding new people to buy it. We will see if Zelda has any kind of bump in Switch numbers, and if the Mario movie does make a billion+ in revenue it can certainly bring a new audience of kids buying a Nintendo console for the first time.



ArtX on 08 April 2023

I said it would be between 140-145M. Right now, I think it will struggle to get close 140M.



super_etecoon on 08 April 2023

One thing that many folks don’t understand about market saturation is that these devices are for individuals, particularly the handheld/hybrid devices. Every year more and more children become of age to have a console. The Switch’s lifespan has been so long that children born on launch day are just now old enough to have their own system.

Also, the anti-Nintendo bias is a strong thing (just like with any company) and sometimes it takes several years for that to wear off (if at all, of course). I’m sure there are many PlayStation and XBox fans who were very resistant to the console but only in the last few years have decided to take the plunge.

Market saturation is certainly a thing, but so is market growth. Granted, the saturation is far, far more powerful than the growth at this point, but the console still has years to limp along with modest sales figures based on variables like these.



Around the Network
AJNShelton on 08 April 2023
super_etecoon said:

I can imagine Nintendo supporting both the Switch 2 and the Switch for several years. There will be quite a bit of room to reduce the Switch Lite down in price, effectively making the Switch almost a dedicated handheld once again. I could see families that couldn’t jump in at $179 per child could pick up a few Switch Lites for the kids at $99 a pop.

Someone can let me know whether this is financially feasible, but we’ve certainly seen prices get down to these levels in the past.

As a budget handheld the Switch Lite could have a very long life.

Yes, a third pillar like the DS



Norion on 08 April 2023
Zippy6 said:
Norion said:

Your math is wrong. If it's 20-25% down this year it won't do 17m, it'll do 14-15m thus there's no chance it does 14m next year.

Yes, 20-25% down YoY would be between 14.45m and 15.41m this year. That same drop continuing (let's say 22.5% each year) would bring sales down to 11.57m for 2024.

There's also that the drop next year should be even bigger due to the successor releasing so there's a chance it falls under 10m for 2024.



xl-klaudkil on 21 April 2023

I highly doubt the switch Will reach 150m let alone 160, really shows how incredible both the ps2 and Ds where.



 

My youtube gaming page.

http://www.youtube.com/user/klaudkil

SonicWariatPOL on 21 April 2023

It's not impossible, because Switch slowly losing it's range for new potential gamers. The market are enough full.

Last edited by SonicWariatPOL - on 25 April 2023

Video games and consoles collector from Poland.

haxxiy on 21 April 2023

I wonder how many Switches are replacements. Even lowballing hardware failure rates, you get around a tenth of current Switch sales being replacements if half of the consumers are willing to purchase it again (which seems reasonable in the absence of market alternatives or a successor).

How much would poor handling at the hands of children influence these numbers is anyone's guess, although the number of original Switches should be at least 100m because otherwise MK8 would have implausibly high attachment rates.