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Norion on 08 April 2023
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Wyrdness said:
Zippy6 said:

For the first 2 months Switch is down 23% YoY. Even if it went from being down 23% to being flat it would still only be at 132.3m by the end of October and 135.2m at the end of November after black Friday.

In reality it's going to continue to be down YoY with perhaps May as the exception. From Famitsu numbers we already know that Japan is down 33.5% YoY for March.

The 10m figure for 2024 is if a Switch 2 releases in 2024, which seems like a realistic number imo.

Black Friday onward is when sales pick up and the start of the holidays if it is 135m from being down 23% that backs what I'm pointing it because Switch will sell a further 2-3m after that that puts the Switch at 137-138m by the end of this year, being down 20-25% YOY is still 17m that continuing next year would be 14m which as I pointed out to someone else earlier that is 31m that puts the Switch at 153m by the end of next. It's down in Japan according to Famitsu but is still the top selling platform there by a significant margin Switch has gone from extraordinary sales to normal level of sales which for at platform that is seven years old bolds well for it's LT sales.

Your math is wrong. If it's 20-25% down this year it won't do 17m, it'll do 14-15m thus there's no chance it does 14m next year.