Yes this is very true, until March 31, 2027 is when support for the Switch will stop (though I think this only refers to production). They even stated this before. So we should expect the same to be done for the Switch 2, 10 years of production. Meaning on average Switch 2 needs to sell near 17M to reach my very early living prediction of 170M. Given that Nintendo via Bloomberg says that 2025 will sell 20M units this gives good vibes for the consoles future.

I also plan to make a list of all rumored games and the leaked specs so we can get an understanding of what we could be dealing with.

Bringing this post back because I've kept doing this every few quarters. Three fiscal quarters have passed since the last time and Japan is so far ahead of my expectations that its target will be revised to 40m which in turn increases the global target to 165m. Shipments by region by September 30th 2024:

Japan: 35.62m, so ~4m to go to hit 40m.
Americas: 56.11m, so ~4m to go to hit 60m.
Europe: 37.52m, so ~7m to go to hit 45m.
Other: 16.79m, so ~3m to go to hit 20m.

Again, these targets now total 165m, so not all of them need to be met to beat the PS2. Japan beats my expectations, but in turn Europe and Other lag behind a bit. 2024 didn't get a Pokémon game, but Super Mario Party Jamboree works as a substitute.

Bringing this post back because I've kept doing this every few quarters. Three fiscal quarters have passed since the last time and Japan is so far ahead of my expectations that its target will be revised to 40m which in turn increases the global target to 165m. Shipments by region by September 30th 2024:

Japan: 35.62m, so ~4m to go to hit 40m.
Americas: 56.11m, so ~4m to go to hit 60m.
Europe: 37.52m, so ~7m to go to hit 45m.
Other: 16.79m, so ~3m to go to hit 20m.

Again, these targets now total 165m, so not all of them need to be met to beat the PS2. Japan beats my expectations, but in turn Europe and Other lag behind a bit. 2024 didn't get a Pokémon game, but Super Mario Party Jamboree works as a substitute.

I don't think Switch 2 will pass Switch 1, not even PS2 or the DS. But 120- 130 million should be in the cards. 10 years for Switch 2?At this Stage it’s too early to say because we have not even seen ingame graphics let alone confirmes games. Nobody knows if MK9 will be called like this. I expect 6 -8 years for Switch 2 if it has a moderate sucess, 10 years+ if it shoots for the Stars. 4- 6 if it flops, but i can't see that. Switch 1 will be 10 years+ and i am ready to bet my dig on that fact!

Exactly. I don't see the Switch 2 having to drop a full $80 five months in due to a lack of games and a gimmick that won't sell it.

And unlike the 3DS to Switch transition, buying into a Switch now grants consumers the ability to transfer their accounts and games over to a Switch 2 in the future unlike the 3DS, which essentially became a dead-end purchase at that point.  And the 3DS still managed to sell around 9m after the Switch released.

Hmm I think this convo would be better on Switch 2 vs Nintendo King thread. But Switch will be 10 years with software and hardware support. It will continue to have Online support well into the Switch 2 and maybe even through the lifecycle of Switch 2. I think both Switch and Switch 2 will have Nintendo Online (they will rebrand it from NSO to just NO). And going back to Switch 2 the simple reason why I think it’ll go for 10 is that Nintendo wants to demonstrate that they can have a streak of success.

I’m sure Switch will be #1 by March 2026 with +162 million !

So, it looks like the Switch, with the upcoming December sales, will most likely be in the 148-149 million sold to consumers.

With Switch 2 all but guaranteed to launch this year - I decided to take a look back at consoles sales from the year their successors launched to the rest of their cycles, thanks to the "Hardware by Date" tool and this is what we got:

From Best to Worst:

PS3 from 2013 onwards: 13,942,355 

DS from 2011 onwards: 13,568,741

3DS from 2017 onwards: 12,153,670

PS4 from 2020 onwards: 11,421,721

X360 from 2013 onwards: 9,108,581

Wii from 2012 onwards: 8,249,476

Average: 11,407,424

The Switch will most likely fall within this range. So based on these calculations, we're looking at a range from 156.25 - 162.94 million LTD sales for the Switch.

If it were to sell the listed average, that would shorten the range to 159.41 - 160.41 million LTD.

The thing to keep in mind here is that these figures are consoles sold to consumers as tracked by VGChartz, not shipped to retailers that Nintendo reports which will always be higher until they discontinue production, and the sold-to-consumers figure eventually catches up. 

At this moment in time, it's honestly 50/50 on whether the Switch catches the PS2.