The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[PAOerfulone]

PAOerfulone said:

So, it looks like the Switch, with the upcoming December sales, will most likely be in the 148-149 million sold to consumers.

With Switch 2 all but guaranteed to launch this year - I decided to take a look back at consoles sales from the year their successors launched to the rest of their cycles, thanks to the "Hardware by Date" tool and this is what we got:

From Best to Worst:

PS3 from 2013 onwards: 13,942,355 

DS from 2011 onwards: 13,568,741

3DS from 2017 onwards: 12,153,670

PS4 from 2020 onwards: 11,421,721

X360 from 2013 onwards: 9,108,581

Wii from 2012 onwards: 8,249,476

Average: 11,407,424

The Switch will most likely fall within this range. So based on these calculations, we're looking at a range from 156.25 - 162.94 million LTD sales for the Switch.

If it were to sell the listed average, that would shorten the range to 159.41 - 160.41 million LTD.

The thing to keep in mind here is that these figures are consoles sold to consumers as tracked by VGChartz, not shipped to retailers that Nintendo reports which will always be higher until they discontinue production, and the sold-to-consumers figure eventually catches up. 

At this moment in time, it's honestly 50/50 on whether the Switch catches the PS2.

So we have a tally for the end of December.

Before adjustments, the Switch is currently sitting at 148.79 million units sold.

So that narrows the range to 157.04 - 162.73 million and an average that would put it at 160.20 million.

Christ on a Stick, this is gonna come down to the wire!