The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Olivernintentoal]

RolStoppable said:

RolStoppable said on February 20th 2024:

Half a year later, we have these totals with targets of 35m in Japan, 60m in the Americas, 45m in Europe and 20m in Other:

Japan: 33.34m, so ~2m more.
Americas: 53.85m, so ~6m more.
Europe: 36.15m, so ~9m more.
Other: 16.03m, so ~4m more.

Japan continues to lead the charge and overall the two recent quarters performed in line with my expectations above, putting Switch's LTD figure between 139 and 140 million units (139.36m).

Japan should be able to hit 35m by the end of 2024, the Americas should be 1-2m short of 60m, Europe 4-5m short of 45m and Other about 2m short of 20m, resulting in under 10m left to go until Switch hits 160m. The now rumored Switch successor launch in early 2025 obviously makes it more realistic for Switch to become the best-selling console of all time, giving it one more holiday season all to itself.

2024 will certainly see a bigger percentage decline over 2023 than 2023 saw over 2022 due to fewer big games. 2024 will most likely be limited to a Pokémon release in November as far as big sellers are concerned. But Switch's back catalogue is loaded enough to have another 10m+ calendar year of hardware shipments in combination with the smaller new Nintendo titles that are coming in an almost monthly rhythm throughout the year.

Bringing this post back because I've kept doing this every few quarters. Three fiscal quarters have passed since the last time and Japan is so far ahead of my expectations that its target will be revised to 40m which in turn increases the global target to 165m. Shipments by region by September 30th 2024:

Japan: 35.62m, so ~4m to go to hit 40m.
Americas: 56.11m, so ~4m to go to hit 60m.
Europe: 37.52m, so ~7m to go to hit 45m.
Other: 16.79m, so ~3m to go to hit 20m.

Again, these targets now total 165m, so not all of them need to be met to beat the PS2. Japan beats my expectations, but in turn Europe and Other lag behind a bit. 2024 didn't get a Pokémon game, but Super Mario Party Jamboree works as a substitute.

You're sounding like @tbone51 and I like it!