If the Switch 2 is released in 2025, why would the Switch sell 9 million more. It'll certainly hit 150 by the end of march. But we'll probably see a fairly dramatic drop after Switch 2 is released. Unlike the 3DS, The Switch is well stocked for mainline Pokemon games already, so I can't see Legends A giving it a boost and there's nothing like Pokemon Go to give it a boost like the 3DS got. Also I think the market is saturated with Switch's unlike the 3DS.

I figure if Nintendo do a big price drop and start exploring untapped markets, like what Sony did with the PS2, then Nintendo could smash that 160m. However it won't do it in 2025.

There's no guarantee of this. Look at the last time Nintendo hit these heights, the Nintendo DS dropped from 17.5 Million to 5 million when the 3DS came out, and that was with a bad 3DS launch. The DS sold a total of 7 and a bit million more for the rest of it's lifetime because the 3DS was backwards compatible and the DS was a saturated market.

The Switch sales are slowing faster than the 3DS already prior to the successors launch, the idea it will continue strong sales after the Successor is launched is not in any way guaranteed. In fact history suggests the opposite.

King Switch will be 151 million by JAN 2025
156 million by July 2025
162 million by end HOLIDAYS 2025
165 million by march 2026
170 million by Xmas 2026
175 million lifetime

Of course we are not at a point (yet) to call 160 million the floor, but 155 million is the floor! The Switch is NOT slowing faster than the 3DS. Yes it sold ~ 5-7 million 3 years in a row but the Switch is sellig at a higher level. It will be ~ 10- 11 million maybe a bit more for this FY. The Switch could exeed these 155 million (wich is the floor). Don't forget there is Pokémon Z-A, MP4B, Prof. Layton, DK and Xeno alone for next year. And that was not all for sure. Even the DS got first party games for nearly 2 years after the 3DS was out. And 2026 (30 years of Pokémon!!) won't be nothing. Pokémon Gen 10 wich is coming late 2026 is heavely rumored to be cross gen, because there is no way Nintendo ignore a userbase from 155- 160 million users for such an event! There could still be games in 2026 as well. Personally i expect games till summer 2027 for sure, maybe even 1st party. Nintendo said they'd support the Switch longer than previous Nintendo systems.

Yes. People now saying 160 million is the floor are nuts. There's a lot of assumption the end of the Switch will follow the 3DS. But 

The issue is they ignore that most Nintendo consoles don't follow this pattern with their direct successor. The 3DS had a fairly unique conditions, such as a massive price drop so it was a budget system and the Pokemon Go/New Pokemon game effect which probably won't happen as the Switch is already Pokemon saturated. The lack of backwards compatibility means the 3DS was viable and again needed for Pokemon. The 3DS also never really fulfilled it's sale potential due to it's poor start, the Switch is close to it's absolute limit.

Also, post pandemic, it appears even old tech doesn't exactly drop in price now. We have consoles raising prices mid-gen now and none of the current or last generation actually dropped price to be regarded as cheap like the 3DS did at the end of it's life.

As I said the DS is considerably more likely the template the Switch will follow. When the 3DS came out, the DS sales went from 17.5 million to 5million and that is with a bad 3DS launch. The Switch isn't doing as well as the DS was doing in 2011 and Nintendo themselves confirmed they believe basically that everyone who wants a Switch has one, there isn't a big demographic they can target for a new well of Switch sales. 

Now it's possible Nintendo can do a significant price drop and reach 160 sales. The Switch dropping to say to $100-$125 would boost it sale significantly. But I doubt Nintendo can do that. Maybe $250,but that's just not cheap enough to be a successful budget alternative. The only alternative is if Nintendo can target those non-1st world nations with a cheap Switch like Sony did with the PS2. Assuming they haven't already tried to crack these markets.

So 160 million Switch sales is possible with 3 more years of support and a big price drop. But 160 certainly isn't the base. I'd say 155 certainly is and that we should be looking at the DS life pattern, not the 3DS one, for the most realistic model of what will happen.

No way the Pokémon's 10th generation games will be cross-gen

Furukawa has just announced that the Switch 2 will have retrocompability with Switch 1's game. Do you think this statement will impact Switch's sales somehow? I know this was a expected feature for the Switch 2, but now that it was clearly confirmed, people might hold their wallets and just wait Switch 2 come out

160m being the "floor" is crazy talk when we have no idea how soon Switch will be replaced or how quickly it will be phased out once it is.

160m is certainly possible, I'd say there's even a decent chance it will happen, but it's by no means a lock when the system's future beyond the next few months is completely up in the air.

I doubt that anyone will care at this point in time. People will take notice once the system is revealed, including its price tag, and then make a decision. Said decision could even be revised if Switch gets a price reduction before the successor releases.

The PS2 was ~300€ here in europe in 2004. The PS1 was 100€. PS2 was fully backwarts compatible. Yet PS1 was not axed untill 2006. No Nintendo Handheld (besides GBA maybe) had less than 10 years of support. Why does anyone think Nintendo will kill off the Switch after 9 years when it won't do any less than 10 million this FY. No console gets killed after a 4 million+ year wich next year will deffinitly be.