Post-replacement legs will be the crucial factor. The DS and 3DS each sold around 9 million units post-replacement. On the other hand, PS4 only sold around 3 million.

Nintendo's forecast puts them at just under 155 million by the end of this FY, but reaching that mark in practise will be challenging and they don't seem to be pushing hard to make it happen, so to be conservative, let's say they sell 11 million and end up at 152m as of March 2025.

If the successor is expensive, say $450-$500, then the Switch, particularly the Lite, could see a second life next gen as a budget alternative, at least until the Switch 2 Lite arrives, which took 2.5 years with the current Switch.

That could be enough to climb passed 160m.

On the other hand, there is the possibility that Nintendo does a Sony and quickly kills off the Switch in order to shift production capacity and players to the successor as quickly as possible.

The Switch clearly has the potential to top the PS2, it just remains to be seen if Nintendo will let it live long enough for that to happen.

162M? Geez, it seems like the potencial maximum number for the PS2 increases every time this topic is brought up. I thought the maximun possible number for the PS2 was 160.9M something like that

Even if the Switch ends up in the gray area between 155 and 160M (or 162M as RolStoppable said) and we never know who sold more, the Switch or the PS2, me personally, I'll declare the Switch the "winner", the most sold console. Sony is the one to blame for not having given us clear data about PS2's final shipment. I think that you can't just have the console sold, you have to provide clear data about it. In circustances of uncertainty, better stick with proved information. As for recording the "The most sold console ever" in websites and such, I defend something like "The Switch is the most sold console ever" and a disclaimer at the end.

Of course if the Switch manages to land on this area. It can go beyond 160M or fall short from 155M for whatever reason. I'm just advancing a conversation that might happen in the future

The calculated range is 158.6m to 161.8m and there's no maths that could push it any higher. That's why 162.0m will constitute absolute certainty that Switch is the best-selling system of all time while 161.9m could still have people argue about rounding.

The thing is that every year we've had people worrying about Switch hitting a certain threshold in lifetime sales. Even despite starting in a healthier position than the 3DS, it was still in doubt for a lot of people that Switch could sell more than 75 million units. Every year the bar had to be moved higher while the doubters tried their best to lay the bar as low as possible. In early 2020 we still had people questioning if 100m is possible. Then we went from 110m to 120m to 130m to 140m to 150m to now 160m.

It was always a question of longevity, but rarely did it happen that people actually focused on Switch itself, and instead they tried to draw parallels with other systems and repurpose those analyses back to Switch. What Switch has going for it is first party support that is A+ and third party support that is B+. It's only B+ because megahits like Monster Hunter are extremely rare to be made, but the number of potential million sellers and overall number of quality additions to the library are very high. A steady flow of interesting content is what makes a system sell for a long time and there's still no end in sight for Switch, because we are still getting a new first party game almost every month and a sequel to Pokémon Legends is announced for 2025. Third parties aren't going to stop supporting Switch anytime soon anyway, because their own transitional periods from current gen to next gen keep getting longer with each generation.

Switch is guaranteed to hit 150m before its successor launches. We also know that Switch's successor won't be cheap, so Switch will continue to sell alongside its successor for a couple of years. Perhaps with fewer first party titles that the 3DS got post-replacement, but for sure with more third party games. The 3DS entered its post-replacement phase on the back of a 7m fiscal year whereas Switch will have at least 11m in the same situation, so it's undeniable that Switch will go into its final phase of life with much better momentum. Adding 10m more after the fiscal year ending March 2025 isn't that big of a challenge under these circumstances, especially because it's possible that the successor won't even launch during the first half of calendar year 2025, which would allow Switch to hit 155m before getting replaced.

Half a year ago I said in a different thread that Switch's chances to outsell the PS2 are at 90%. Nothing extraordinary has happened since then, so the odds remain the same. I acknowledge that there's still a realistic possibility for pessimistic scenarios to come true, but at the same time the likelihood for them to happen is very low. The requirement for Switch to fall short of the PS2 is pretty much a repeat of the DS to 3DS transition where the successor system was messed up and got its price quickly cut to shift sales from the old system to the new system. But such a collosal blunder is improbable because of how Nintendo is handling the Switch platform up till now: It's carefully and patiently planned as opposed to the DS to 3DS transition where Nintendo had rushed the successor to the market.

Come on Switch !!!

Nintendo better prepare for last holidays/ christmas season !!

Didn't realise the PS4sold so little after the PS5 release. I suspect because it was already a FIFA-Fortnite-COD-GTA machine and and it has the culture of only the latest will do now. PS doesn't do much in evergreen titles that people want to play for years after release these days. It's mostly about online play, which is why they are struggling. Perhaps one of Nintendo's strengths was to not go all in on live games.

It's also interesting that despite virtually no new PS4 sales I read the PS4 is till 50% of the players for PlayStation. Which further backs my point about how users see it. People can still buy Nintendo consoles and want to play the old games on them. 

I think it's a fallacy to claim because doubters of Switch sales were wrong in it's early years, that they are wrong now. There was no date that would indicate how well the Switch would do and the pandemic effect was fortunate. We can see the decline in sales of the Switch now and project, both optimistically or conservatively, what future sales will because well as an idea of what console selling games are left. We have historic data to show how consoles fare after a new release as well. Now we have a lot of hard evidence from sales date to estimate the Switch's likely final total.

From that 151-154 units sold by March 2025 looks most likely ballpark. We suspect the Switch will have a 3 year life left once the Successor is launched. We can ascertain that Nintendo won't do a Sony and knee cap production straight after and so a likely drop of 40-60% in sales is a rational prediction. That makes it potentially 156/157 units sold by March 2026 minimum. Then a total of 3 million more after that. But, corporate business means Nintendo won't push the Switch hard if they think it would bite in the Switch successor sales as well and thus we assume they won't knee cap the Switch. Rumours were the Switch successor was put back a year due to the current global climate. It's possible there is even less games Nintendo have in the bag to support the post-successor era now. 

The fault in those estimates is that previous data of post success or sales has a price drop involved. Given recent console trends it seems the possibility of a price drop is more and more unlikely due to how supply chains of modern components work now. It's possible Nintendo might follow Sony and kneecap the Switch to support the successor. We'll see. The idea of a guaranteed 10 million extra isn't so sure in the current climate. 

The thing is that doubters have been wrong every year, not just in the early years. And every year I reiterated why they will be wrong, and every following year people would nod their heads that Switch momentum remained strong for exactly the reasons I had listed. The reasons in question have a strong track record, the same reasons still persist, therefore the doubters will be wrong again.

You run the maths to arrive at your conclusion that 10m extra isn't so sure after March 2025, but you aren't honest about it. You start by acknowledging that up to 154m is possible by March 2025, then you say a drop of 40-60% is rational and then use the low end instead of the full range for your figure by March 2026. It's only because of this that you are able to cap Switch at 160m with "a total of 3m after that." But even that is not enough for you, because you follow it up by naming reasons that it could be even worse than that.

Switch hit 141.32m by March 2024. 151.0m by March 2025 really constitutes the low end because that would mean under 10.0m shipped this fiscal year and everything has to go wrong for this to happen. 154.0m by March 2025 assumes almost everything goes well, but Nintendo still falls short of their 13.5m goal by 0.82m. Since the range of 151-154m is so broad, I'd say pretty much everyone would agree that Switch will land within said range by March 2025, so I too accept your basis. Now I'll do a table based on your 40-60% drop rate and simplify the end of life sales to your suggested 3m regardless of the momentum that Switch would have in any scenario.

The assumption that Switch will sell at most 3m beyond March 2026 puts a serious limit to lifetime sales in any scenario, but even then exactly half of the above paths (6 out of 12) put Switch above the PS2 in the end.

I find your concern about the potential lack of a price cut to be rather meaningless in the current climate, because the same thing applies to the PS5, the Xbox Series and Switch's successor as well. Because what has the price cut for a last gen system always been about? A clear differentiation in cost to newer systems. So why would it matter if Switch doesn't get a price cut when all newer systems won't go down in price either. Different circumstances to previous generations, yet the result remains the same: Switch will have a clear price advantage over newer systems in its late life.

(“vibes-based analysis” taking up 141 pages of comments is wild lol…)

Though just to jump in, how do ppl think Nintendo is planning on using storage space for stockpiling NSW2 units prior to launch? Is it possible these units may occupy all the space which NSW once filled, and thereby leave virtually no NSW units in warehouse? I’m not sure how normal it is for every system to go from production straight to store shelves, not stockpiled or anything.

And what about the manufacturing? Will Nintendo be interested in dividing NSW2 production with NSW? I know they’ve already built that Vietnamese factory which’ll output an estimated >1mil per year.

I like the calculations, but not your dismissal of other concerns. The drop-off rate was based on prior generations sales. Seems the most reasonable bit of data to apply to current predictions. That isn't being a doubter, it's about doing the most rational analysis.

The stuff about price drops is relevant. Not sure why the current PS5, Xbox Series is brought up, because we are discussing prior generations. The price cut matters because most rationale is price cuts sell more consoles. the 3DS being a good example. If historic post successor sales are to be used to inform Switch predictions, then we must consider that it was partly due to the console getting price cuts extending it's sales. It's not about the Switch having a competitive advantage over Sony and MS because it's not a zero sum game, and people considering a PS5 isn't likely to consider prior generations consoles. It's about if the price drop draws in people who wouldn't otherwise considered a Switch. That might be a group who wouldn't buy one at all if it's not cheap enough.

Likewise I also added some consideration for more modern trends with what happened across the current generation, the PS4 simply didn't have any legs after the PS5 launched. Prior sony consoles did. There can be a number of reasons for this, but it's perfectly right to consider that the Nintendo Switch won't be immune to such a trend. Especially given the current state of the global economy means it would make sense for Nintendo to kneecap the Switch like Sony did with their PS4. It's obviously speculation, but it's informed by the trends in consoles seen more recently than when Nintendo phased out their old consoles.

So given all that, a lot depends on two main factors, the number of switches sold this fiscal year and the drop off post successor launch. The first factor is unknown, the Switch has had a big drop in sales this year so far in the first half. The issue though is the drop is larger than prior drop-offs in recent years. But is that partly due to being without a major title to boost sales? Or due to less interest in buying a Switch generally?

That is possibly the biggest factor here, early year sales suggest increased loss of interest in the Switch now which could exceed prior console drop-offs. I can only speculate if that's due to the unusual low game release activity by Nintendo in early 2024 or a more general trend.

However this Holiday period will be huge. Perfect time for a price drop, if it's possible, but will the new '2D' Zelda and Mario and Luigi games sell enough Switches to hit or exceed our projections? I simply don't know.

So my factors that must be considered:

If early year sales are a definite trend in Switch engagement or are just due to a lack of engaging software?

If the end year sales pick up and compensate for this with the improved line-up?

If old drop-off rates for post successor sales apply here?

If the recent kneecapping of the PS4 is relevant to Nintendo's future decision making after a successor launches?

Can and will a price drop be done? How much and what's the impact?

How long will Nintendo support the Switch with quality and attractive games post successor launch?


These are the unknows that will ultimately be key in where the Nintendo Switch ends up. No one here can be sure about any of them. All we can do is look at historical data, current trends and work the impact of the above factors will have.