| curl-6 said: Post-replacement legs will be the crucial factor. The DS and 3DS each sold around 9 million units post-replacement. On the other hand, PS4 only sold around 3 million. Nintendo's forecast puts them at just under 155 million by the end of this FY, but reaching that mark in practise will be challenging and they don't seem to be pushing hard to make it happen, so to be conservative, let's say they sell 11 million and end up at 152m as of March 2025. If the successor is expensive, say $450-$500, then the Switch, particularly the Lite, could see a second life next gen as a budget alternative, at least until the Switch 2 Lite arrives, which took 2.5 years with the current Switch. That could be enough to climb passed 160m. On the other hand, there is the possibility that Nintendo does a Sony and quickly kills off the Switch in order to shift production capacity and players to the successor as quickly as possible. The Switch clearly has the potential to top the PS2, it just remains to be seen if Nintendo will let it live long enough for that to happen. |
Didn't realise the PS4sold so little after the PS5 release. I suspect because it was already a FIFA-Fortnite-COD-GTA machine and and it has the culture of only the latest will do now. PS doesn't do much in evergreen titles that people want to play for years after release these days. It's mostly about online play, which is why they are struggling. Perhaps one of Nintendo's strengths was to not go all in on live games.
It's also interesting that despite virtually no new PS4 sales I read the PS4 is till 50% of the players for PlayStation. Which further backs my point about how users see it. People can still buy Nintendo consoles and want to play the old games on them.
