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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

znake on 20 January 2023

I trust Ninty and they will reach 160m easily



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trunkswd on 20 January 2023

If the report that Nintendo plans to increase production next fiscal year turns out to be true the odds the Switch tops 160 million is more likely. It likely means a new Switch revision and/or a price cut to something like $300 for OLED, $250 for standard, and $180 for Lite.



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Qwark on 20 January 2023

I think Nintendo will push Switch hardware as long as economically viable. Which means they can delay a Switch successor to even Q4 2025 or even Q1 2026.

Which would mean 175 to 80 million might not be outside the scope of possibilities. After BOTW 2 Nintendo can focus in developibg Switch 2 is library and repeat the succes story right out of the gate with a massive lineup in the launch year of Switch 2.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

Qwark on 20 January 2023
Qwark said:

I think Nintendo will push Switch hardware as long as economically viable. Which means they can delay a Switch successor to even Q4 2025 or even Q1 2026.

Which would mean 175 to 80 million might not be outside the scope of possibilities. After BOTW 2 Nintendo can focus in developibg Switch 2 is library and repeat the succes story right out of the gate with a massive lineup in the launch year of Switch 2.

DaAndy said:
javi741 said:

Tbh even if the Switch doesn't end up becoming the greatest-selling console of all time. I still easily consider it the most truly successful gaming platform of all time. It is by far the most profitable console of all time, even the DS and Wii combined couldn't attain Switch-like profits. None of Sony's consoles never had profits as high as the Switch right now, even the PS2. [...]

You got any source or further information for that? Would be very, very interesting to see a comparison. :)

Switch climbing up to 160 Million is still not out of reach. There are still many stories to be told.

Lets first wait how 2023 is doing in terms of sales numbers and if there will be any official announcement of "Switch 2" (working name^^) in 2023.

Considering the revenue and profitability of the PS4 I would say that is the console to define success. Not only did the PS4 sell alof of units with very limited price cuts it also kept fourty million people keep paying Sony 60 euro/dollar for PS+. 



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eddy7eddy on 21 January 2023
trunkswd said:

If the report that Nintendo plans to increase production next fiscal year turns out to be true the odds the Switch tops 160 million is more likely. It likely means a new Switch revision and/or a price cut to something like $300 for OLED, $250 for standard, and $180 for Lite.

Does that mean that we are getting closer to a Switch VS PS3+360 & Switch VS PS4+XOne comparison? 🤔



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javi741 on 21 January 2023

There's a possibility that the Switch could outsell the combined sales total of PS4 & Xbox One, which combined sold 168M. Might be a bit difficult but its within reach of the Switch, which would be insane if the Switch could pull it off.



javi741 on 31 March 2023

So guys how confident are you guys feeling now in 2023 with the Switch outselling the PS2?

Imo it could easily go either way and none of us know until we get a good idea on when the successor comes out. But if I were to give my updated guess on it, I think the Switch will fall just short of the PS2 selling in the low 150M range, but I could easily be wrong.



Kakadu18 on 31 March 2023
javi741 said:

So guys how confident are you guys feeling now in 2023 with the Switch outselling the PS2?

Imo it could easily go either way and none of us know until we get a good idea on when the successor comes out. But if I were to give my updated guess on it, I think the Switch will fall just short of the PS2 selling in the low 150M range, but I could easily be wrong.

I agree with that. I think it has become unlikely that the Switch reaches 160mil.



Farsala on 31 March 2023
Farsala said:
RolStoppable said:

2017: 14.86m/14.86m LTD
2018: 17.41m/32.47m
2019: 20.22m/52.49m
2020: 27.38m/79.87m
2021: 23.67m/103.54m

2022: 20.00m/123.54m
2023: 18.00m/141.54m
2024: 12.00m/153.54m
2025: 5.00m/158.54m
2026: 1.50m/160.04m

2022 looks fine, maybe a bit smaller. Q1 is already predicted by Nintendo to be ~1m smaller this year. So maybe on that line Nintendo expects 80% of 2021, which would be 19m. So a 20% drop is fine.

Everything beyond is optimistic. You basically think the NSW will be unaffected by old age. 2023 will have to have a strong revision for this to work for sure. But you predicting a significant revision is like me predicting 0 price cuts for life. I think a 2023 revision would entail a 2025 Switch 2, but who knows.

Well I predicted 19m for CY 2022, and I was right on the money.

As for 2023 and beyond I didn't predict anything beyond saying Rol was optimistic, and I still hold that view. I also predicted no price cuts and no revisions, so still waiting on those to happen. I am not sure if I will find time to put out exact predictions, but maybe if I find some time.



Chicho on 31 March 2023

I think it is still possible.  ~18 millions for this year is not out of the question yet and the tail could be longer than some people expect.