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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

This complicated things a bit…price cut could save NSW, but reveal prior to holiday (and even Zelda?) seems fatal.

Context: This Brazilian leaker was very insistent on there being a Nintendo Direct for August (not just the museum direct). I believe the leaker also has a very consistent record, but I would need to double check on this. In short, this is certainly a leak worth taking very seriously.

Last edited by firebush03 - on 27 August 2024

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firebush03 said:

This complicated things a bit…price cut could save NSW, but reveal prior to holiday (and even Zelda?) seems fatal.

Context: This Brazilian leaker was very insistent on there being a Nintendo Direct for August (not just the museum direct). I believe the leaker also has a very consistent record, but I would need to double check on this. In short, this is certainly a leak worth taking very seriously.

I don’t think a Switch 2 reveal/tease in September would necessarily do a ton of harm to Switch’s holiday sales. You have to remember that the type of person buying a console in its 8th year is not likely to be the same type of person buying a consoles in its launch year.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
firebush03 said:

This complicated things a bit…price cut could save NSW, but reveal prior to holiday (and even Zelda?) seems fatal.

Context: This Brazilian leaker was very insistent on there being a Nintendo Direct for August (not just the museum direct). I believe the leaker also has a very consistent record, but I would need to double check on this. In short, this is certainly a leak worth taking very seriously.

I don’t think a Switch 2 reveal/tease in September would necessarily do a ton of harm to Switch’s holiday sales. You have to remember that the type of person buying a console in its 8th year is not likely to be the same type of person buying a consoles in its launch year.

Agree. Also parents are not going to tell the kids Santa is going to be 6 months late. If they want to buy Nintendo for their kids they are going to pick up the Switch regardless if the successor has been unveiled or not.



firebush03 said:

This complicated things a bit…price cut could save NSW, but reveal prior to holiday (and even Zelda?) seems fatal.

Context: This Brazilian leaker was very insistent on there being a Nintendo Direct for August (not just the museum direct). I believe the leaker also has a very consistent record, but I would need to double check on this. In short, this is certainly a leak worth taking very seriously.

I am calling BS. He may got it right the partner/indie showcase. But the Switch 2 reveal, it was definitely pulled from his ass to generate buzz and clicks.

September, Nintendo won't focus on anything other than the Zelda release.



 

 

We reap what we sow

160rmf said:
firebush03 said:

This complicated things a bit…price cut could save NSW, but reveal prior to holiday (and even Zelda?) seems fatal.

Context: This Brazilian leaker was very insistent on there being a Nintendo Direct for August (not just the museum direct). I believe the leaker also has a very consistent record, but I would need to double check on this. In short, this is certainly a leak worth taking very seriously.

I am calling BS. He may got it right the partner/indie showcase. But the Switch 2 reveal, it was definitely pulled from his ass to generate buzz and clicks.

September, Nintendo won't focus on anything other than the Zelda release.

cant say “buzz and clicks” seem to be a strong motive. Dude’s literally anonymous on Famiboards. Looking at his background, he doesn’t seem to be perfectly spot on, though it is worth mentioning he was the original source behind the rumors (which would later be confirmed) of NSwitch successor delay from Fall 2024 to Spring 2025.



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firebush03 said:
160rmf said:

I am calling BS. He may got it right the partner/indie showcase. But the Switch 2 reveal, it was definitely pulled from his ass to generate buzz and clicks.

September, Nintendo won't focus on anything other than the Zelda release.

cant say “buzz and clicks” seem to be a strong motive. Dude’s literally anonymous on Famiboards. Looking at his background, he doesn’t seem to be perfectly spot on, though it is worth mentioning he was the original source behind the rumors (which would later be confirmed) of NSwitch successor delay from Fall 2024 to Spring 2025.

So basically, he got nothing until the partner/indie showcase. That explains why he isn't a famous leaker 

Last edited by 160rmf - on 29 August 2024

 

 

We reap what we sow

160rmf said:
firebush03 said:

cant say “buzz and clicks” seem to be a strong motive. Dude’s literally anonymous on Famiboards. Looking at his background, he doesn’t seem to be perfectly spot on, though it is worth mentioning he was the original source behind the rumors (which would later be confirmed) of NSwitch successor delay from Fall 2024 to Spring 2025.

So basically, he got nothing until the partner/indie showcase. That explains why he isn't a famous leaker 

nah he did get the successor delay. This has been confirmed by *many* insider sources that yes, the Switch was actually following according exactly to this Brazilian’s reporting. In any case, I guess we’ll just have to see who’s right. September or October would be the reveal, they anticipate.



Tbh we might be getting to that point to where the Switch outselling the PS2 might not even be the most interesting debate/discussion anymore with how the Switch is looking more and more likely to outsell the PS2.

The bigger discussion would be whether or not the Switch could somehow exceed 170M and outsell the combined total of Xbox One+PS4 sales which is at around 175M. Which would be mind-blowing if the Switch could outsell an entire generation in this day and age where every console is competitive in sales.

The PS2 did outsell it's entire generation pretty easily, but the competition was much weaker then than it is now. PS4 & Xbox One sales wise were considered successful systems and to outsell both combined is crazy.

If the Switch were to reach 170M in sales, that would mean the Switch would own 50% of the entire global video game console market, which would be considered a monopoly at that point by definition.

For me right now reaching 170M seems a bit too ambitious, bit if Nintendo keeps supporting the Switch longer then we'd expect and has post-Switch 3DS sales numbers in it's final year's, it could be possible.



Especially with the rumours in mind that the Switch 2 could become a lot more expensive than its predecessor, I fully expect Nintendo to keep the Switch 1 around for quite some time as a budget option even after the release if the Switch 2. Which is why I don't think 170m+ should be a problem for the console, even if it might hurt initial Switch 2 sales a bit. If I am correct in my expectation that Nintendo understand the Switch family as a platform and doesn't hold onto the idea of generations all that much, I think that will be ok. Most important thing should be that Nintendo keeps making a profit with each and every console sold.

I might be wrong though. =P



Official member of VGC's Nintendo family, approved by the one and only RolStoppable. I feel honored.

Renamed said:

LLM based A.I. is shit. It's scraped data from various unverified sources filtered through basic if/then if/else background commands all wrapped in a simple feedback chat script.

If it gets crap data in, it gives crap data back out. No means of testing or verifying the data before it gets chatted back to the user. And it's only going to get worse as they start sourcing from each other.

They already do. An estimated 50% of what is used to train these AI models are already AI-generated.