These recent Japan numbers been looking rough for Switch 1 as of recent, and Japan was the most dominant region last year post-Switch 2 in terms of sales, so the fact that the Switch 1 in Japan is now selling so low will make it difficult to reach 160M, since NA & Europe already saw even bigger declines post Switch 2.
I think Switch 1 would need some sort of miracle to crawl to 160M at this point, like one last Switch model or price cut, or maybe somehow Tomadachi Life gives it a decent boost bigger than expected, but I doubt any of that will happen at this point. It seems like Nintendo is trying to force people into Switch 2 as much as possible and not really pushing or marketing the Switch 1 as an alternative as much as I expected.
And with inflation it seems like any price cuts are completely out of the question, especially since Nintendo probably would rather almost force people to get a Switch 2 which isnt much more expensive than Switch 1. I think a new model is out of the question too.
So I think Switch 1 will end at around 158 Million