@Slimebeast

I'm sorry to disappoint, but I just cannot see it happening. I'm betting pretty big on this fact too, since I'm shorting a lot of shares of 360 stock over at SimExchange. Over 3 years, with the year starting the day that the 360 launched in NA, and assuming it gets to about 24 million by that point this year (it won't get a holiday boost yet), that would mean it has only averaged 7 million a year, even with one of the best lineups last holiday season. Yet you seem to believe it will increase yearly sales by about 2.5 million this year, even without the big hitters like Halo 3, Mass Effect, Bioshock, I could go on. You even said "The X360 has the BEST game support" which is an opinion in any case, yet it can't even manage sales similar to the PS2 in it's waning years (since the PS2 sold more in 2007 than the 360 did).

Now, every console for which we have solid yearly data, sales normally peak during the 3rd year (which the 360 is currently in), then start to decline. There are, however, slight differences in how the 3 markets work with this trend. My findings show Japan starts to decline first, but are quicker to adopt a console (hence why the PS3 will never win there, it was too late after the first year, but even the Wii's peak year is probably already behind it). The America's market starts at a good pace, increases up to the third year, then declines after that. Others has normally been slower to start the adoption process, but makes up for it in "legs," with the 5th year of the PS2 in Others being its best year, then dropping quickly. Here's a very quick picture to kind of illustrate this (you don't have to view it if you don't want to). It's just a rough drawing, and doesn't represent sales trends 100%, but you'll get the idea (I hope).

Now we can argue about price, games, whether the Wii is competing with the PS360 or not, and a whole lot of other fun stuff, but I'd rather not (least we bring Crazzy into this). So basically, this is where I stand:

As for price, the 360 price will always be greater than, or equal to, the Wii's price. And since the equal price part isn't helping the 360 in Europe (where equal price actually equals 50% sales). Dropping the price isn't the "fix all" that people seem to think it is. The GameCube, despite being cheaper at launch, and cheaper (and more powerful to boot) than the PS2, never "took off." Since I believe that the Wii directly competing with the 360 (and PS3 of course), and since the Wii will probably always be cheaper than the 360 (though I have been wrong about things before), the Wii will most likely always steal the majority of the users waiting for The Price is Right (and you're the next contestant!).  So basically, price cuts aren't going to help that much, especially since the downward sales curve is too great to stop with a simply price cut.

As for games, the 360's line really is incredible. Though it hasn't helped sales all that much, compared to the PS3's relatively weak (but getting better) line-up, while the PS3 is more expensive (again showing price isn't everything). Also, the "really weak" line-up (according to the GameRankings and most "experts") hasn't hurt the Wii very much (see April NPD).

So all-in-all, even with price drops, and the great games that the 360 already has (and with more to come), it's unlikely that the 360 will hit much higher than 9 million in 2008, and then over the next 4 years (which would mean a lifespan of 7 years), to hit another 20 million, would have to average 5 million a year (which is about what I'd expect it to do). 7 million in 2009, 5 million in 2010, and then 2 million in 2011 and 2012, which is about 16 million, plus 24 million, equals 40 million. 

Even assuming a little more generous sales decline (though that decline was more generous than the Xbox and GC decline, which is what they were based off of), one could assume 8 million in 2009, 6 million 2010, 5 million 2011, and then 3 million in 2012 (release of X720 lowers sales a bit more), or about 43 million (which I guess is more than my "40 million max" but still).

Either way, 50 million would be really pushing it (and I definitely see it as the ultimate max), and since SimExchange currently has lifetime sales of the 360 sitting at 57 million, I'll continue to short it because I just don't see that happening (nor do I see the 67 million for the PS3 that the SimExchange is currently predicting happening either). Sales just don't jump massively due to price cuts and games.

The Xbox 360 has been out for a little over two and a half years and is at 19 mil.  In the same timeframe, the PS2 sold 30 million systems, while also having the advantage of being the reigning champion of the previous generation.

The 360 will never hit ps2 numbers, but I think 50-60million is a reasonable estimate even without the support of Japan.  MS have shown themselves to be much more aggressive this generation, and have promised to support the 360 for an extended life, unlike the first xbox

Wait until XBOX 360 mega hits...

Gears of War 2...

no i dont think it will reach 50 million

no I don't think it will hit 50 but I think 40-45 is doable

Wait until PS3 mega hits...

Resistance 2, and LBP....

Little big planet will not be a mega hit..... lol wow, think dude.

I assume when you say "in the same timeframe" for the PS2, you are talking about 2.5 years. If that's the case, then that's not a completely fair comparison, since the PS2 was only out in Japan during 8 of thouse 30 months. Since the Americas and Others account for roughly 85% of the total market, and the PS2 was not on sale for nearly 25% of the timeframe, it's actually amazing that the PS2 still managed to beat the Xbox360 by 10 million.

Now, looking at this America graph, this Others graph, and this Japan graph, you can see that the 360 isn't do so much better than the Xbox that you can say that it will double the sales of the Xbox. The PS2, through 3 years on the market (or 156 weeks with 52 weeks in a year), sold about 50 million, while the Xbox managed about 18 million. Now, if the 360 manages to get to 25 million by the 156 week (which should occur mid November or so), the 360 will have about 50% of sales that the PS2 had at the same point in its life. Now we could easily assume that using this ratio, the 360 will hit 50% of the PS2 lifetime totals, or about 65 million or so. But I highly doubt this will be the case, for a few reasons.

Reason number one: Not the market leader. Market leaders usually have higher sales, and thus better sales curves. If you're peak year is only 9 million units, the downfall is going to be worse than the console with a peak year of 20 million.

Take for example, the Xbox. Peak year: 2004 with 6.98 million units. 2005 sold 3.62 million, a drop of almost 50%. 2006? A million units or so (though Microsoft killed the Xbox in 2006). Take the GameCube as well. Peak year: 2003 with 6.05 million units sold. 2004 saw 4.44 million sold, a 25% drop, and then in 2005 40% drop to 2.74 million units, and then another million in 2006. On the other hand, the PS2's peak year was 2002 with 21 million. Then in 2003 with 18 million units, a 12% drop. 2004 saw 16 million more units, a mere 14% drop. 2005 saw a slight increase to 17.5 million units. Then it started dropping, 30% in 2006 to 12 million units, and 9 million in 2007, a 23% drop.

Now, since the 360 is not going to do as "bad" as the Xbox did, but isn't going to do as well as the PS2, it's percentage growth and decline should fall somewhere in the middle (in theory). This is how I based my predictions for sales trends over the next 4 years (ending 2012). And I got 26 million units in America, 900k in Japan, and 12 million in Others, which is a good increase for each territory (the Xbox had 15 million in Americas, 500k in Japan, and 7.7 million in Others.

Now looking at the graphs above, and what I have pointed out (and my sales predictions), can you really say that the 360 is going to do so much better than the Xbox? Ignoring Japan (or not ignoring, but it's such a minor detail), the 360 isn't doubling the Xbox's sales, so even with a few more years on the market (though remember the longer you go, without being completely dominate), you're sales start to fall, and it becomes harder and harder to get good sales.

Reason number two: Just because Microsoft "promises" to support the 360 longer doesn't mean they will, and doesn't mean the 360 will have amazing sales going into 2011 either. I bet Nintendo was heavily supporting the GameCube, and it sold a measly 2.74 million in 2005 and a million in 2006 (even with the release of the Wii being at the end of the year, and a new Zelda game).

Reason number three: eliasg (whether being sarcastic or not) brings it up perfectly: another FPS isn't going to bring in new crowds. If you haven't decided to get a 360 because of Halo 3, Bioshock, Mass Effect, COD4, Gears of War, GTA4 (to a point I guess), then another FPS isn't going to turn you over. Also, we all saw the amazingly boring boost that GTA4 gave the two consoles? Or what about Halo 3? These boost are neither all that impressive or lasting. Price cuts have similar problems, they don't boost the sales enough, nor they do elevate it for very long. 

i think the xbox 360 will sell around 40 million systems , and the ps3 around 65 million and the wii around 95 - 110 million. i love the xbox 360 and i hope i am low on the lifetime sales of the system.