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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu sales: Week 51, 2021 - (13th Dec - 19th Dec)

Agente42 on 30 December 2021
Farsala said:

I think one big issue is comparing peak Switch SW sales (year 5) with the opposite of peak PS5 SW sales (year 1).

Sure you can compare to the Wii U as well, which peaked early and died quickly.

But the issue is that the PS5 doesn't have any major Japanese exclusives yet. Most are shared with the PS4, and it looks like it will continue for a year or 2. Sony apparently believes it is worth it, we shall see in the coming years.

I think being so alarmist about the PS5 so early in its life is just premature. This premature alarmism is just exacerbated with the massive supply issues worldwide. Hopefully the picture becomes more clear with proper supply and some solid Japanese exclusives.

It´s not alarming when you have data, one year on the market, contamination on the satellites market, etc

I believe one big game can improve sales, but one year in the market defines many things, the potential sale is a good example.  

It´s much harder now to try to surpass or equal Ps4 hardware sales, per example. 

The decline was long ago, before PS4, and PS4 have weak competition and all big third parties on their side. 

Ps5 has dreadful software first year, a good competition ( Switch and Xbox series S). And high price. How much does all this help in future sales?



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Endymion on 30 December 2021

PS5 total software sales at retail in its first 14 months (Nov. 2020- Dec 2021) will be ~0.75M
PS4 total software sales at retail in its first 11 months (Feb. 2014- Dec 2014) were ~2.44M

However that's not the only problem.

PS3 total packaged software sales in 2014 were twice higher than what PS4 total packaged software sales will be in 2021.

On top of that in 2014 there was the contribution of PSV too (not much, but still was ~4.99M which is more than what PS4/PS5 combined will achieve in 2021).

src said:

LMAO

PS4 sold 4-5M software in 2021.

https://f.irbank.net/pdf/20211224/140120211222559167.pdf

You guys are still sticking your head in the sand unable to face the reality of market data.

Why are you still using top 10,20,30,100 when we have the entire software totals?

Because, unlike you, others know that the 2021 column represent just a forecast Famitsu made in early 2021, it's not the actual software sales in 2021.

Last edited by Endymion - on 30 December 2021

Endymion on 30 December 2021

It's probable that in 2021 the annual third-party packaged software sales on NSW will beat the PS4 third-party packaged software peak year which was 2018 (~9.10M).

Last edited by Endymion - on 30 December 2021

xMetroid on 30 December 2021
Ashadelo said:

Should Nintendo make a switch lite OLED? If they do should they keep 4 different models on the market or phase out the two non-oled models? 

Does anyone except a price drop at all for any of the switch models in 2022?

Imo the only new model they will release is one with a power upgrade using the OLED screen. The lite is better with the actual material as it is more of a cheap avenue and it doesn’t need to have an upgrade in cost since it did have problems to sell. The lite needs a price cut. 

Then, i expect the regular switch model to get phased out!



konnichiwa on 30 December 2021
Agente42 said:
konnichiwa said:

Not that I come close to agreeing with SRC but we have no clue whats going to happen when sony increases the shipments for Japan + more game releases. So far it looks to be a demand otherwise it would not be sold out. Also don't really think Japanese game companies are worried most of them have their biggest financial succes with Sony and the West is their biggest market. I think making a game exclusive for Switch is still seen as a bigger risk.

Big risk? Based on what? Do you have any data? or make belief?

Monster Hunter Rise, Momotaro says otherwise. 

Dragon Quest XI a late port has, with good prediction, surpassed 1M.

Where is the big risk?

PS5 has a dreadful SOFTWARE sales, dreadful, Falcom, one of the most Sony fanboys company, now will produce internally for Switch. 

Do you have any proof that the Japanese devs are getting woried and skipping ps?

From software will release one of its biggest titles soon and it is not on Switch.

Square enix not only announced the next FF to not be on switch but the next Star Ocean will also skip the switch.

Sega and the Yakuza team seem to work on next entries that seem to be on PS and possible skip switch again...

I honestly believe the majority of game devs in Japan prefer to skip the Switch instead of the PS based on future releases shedule from the big third party devs.






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Farsala on 30 December 2021
Agente42 said:
Farsala said:

I think one big issue is comparing peak Switch SW sales (year 5) with the opposite of peak PS5 SW sales (year 1).

Sure you can compare to the Wii U as well, which peaked early and died quickly.

But the issue is that the PS5 doesn't have any major Japanese exclusives yet. Most are shared with the PS4, and it looks like it will continue for a year or 2. Sony apparently believes it is worth it, we shall see in the coming years.

I think being so alarmist about the PS5 so early in its life is just premature. This premature alarmism is just exacerbated with the massive supply issues worldwide. Hopefully the picture becomes more clear with proper supply and some solid Japanese exclusives.

It´s not alarming when you have data, one year on the market, contamination on the satellites market, etc

I believe one big game can improve sales, but one year in the market defines many things, the potential sale is a good example.  

It´s much harder now to try to surpass or equal Ps4 hardware sales, per example. 

The decline was long ago, before PS4, and PS4 have weak competition and all big third parties on their side. 

Ps5 has dreadful software first year, a good competition ( Switch and Xbox series S). And high price. How much does all this help in future sales?

PS5 won't ever surpass the PS4 HW or SW in Japan. But for now according to famitsu PS5 is not too far off on HW when compared to the PS4, and that is with massive supply issues.

PS4 contended with the Switch, PS Vita, 3DS, Xbox etc. Now PS5 is contending with the tail end of the Switch and Xbox as always.



HoangNhatAnh on 30 December 2021
konnichiwa said:
Agente42 said:

Big risk? Based on what? Do you have any data? or make belief?

Monster Hunter Rise, Momotaro says otherwise. 

Dragon Quest XI a late port has, with good prediction, surpassed 1M.

Where is the big risk?

PS5 has a dreadful SOFTWARE sales, dreadful, Falcom, one of the most Sony fanboys company, now will produce internally for Switch. 

Do you have any proof that the Japanese devs are getting woried and skipping ps?

From software will release one of its biggest titles soon and it is not on Switch.

Square enix not only announced the next FF to not be on switch but the next Star Ocean will also skip the switch.

Sega and the Yakuza team seem to work on next entries that seem to be on PS and possible skip switch again...

I honestly believe the majority of game devs in Japan prefer to skip the Switch instead of the PS based on future releases shedule from the big third party devs.

And none of those franchises will sell more than 700.000 units on ps5 in JP.



noshten on 30 December 2021
Endymion said:

It's probable that in 2021 the annual third-party packaged software sales on NSW will beat the PS4 third-party packaged software peak year which was 2018 (~9.10M).


Famitsu Third Party Switch Top 50 2021(Unofficial Ranking)

  1. Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 2.326.057
  2. Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 1.224.205
  3. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 662.862
  4. Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 309.722
  5. Monster Hunter Stories 2 (Capcom) - 227.554
  6. Baseball Spirits 2021 (Konami) - 210.259
  7. Shin Megami Tensei V (Atlus) - 184.388
  8. Crayon Shin-Chan (Neos) - 183.733
  9. Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 136.091
  10. Rune Factory 5 (Marvelous) - 127.968
  11. Yu-Gi-Oh! Rush Duel (Konami) - 127.221
  12. Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 115.610
  13. Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 115.375
  14. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 104.751
  15. Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 102.074
  16. Super Robot Wars 30 (Bandai Namco) - 89.931
  17. Tsukihime (Aniplex) - 89.916
  18. Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 85.310
  19. Minecraft Dungeons + Ultimate Edition (Microsoft) - 85.162
  20. Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 72.796
  21. Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot (Bandai Namco) - 69.449
  22. Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 65.620
  23. Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 62.119
  24. Samurai Warriors 5 (Koei Tecmo) - 61.350
  25. The Battle Cats Unite! (Ponos) - 51.268
  26. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega) - 40.688
  27. FIFA 22: Legacy Edition (Electronic Arts) - 40.643
  28. Fortnite: Minty Legends Pack (Epic Games) - 36.749
  29. Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 (Sega) - 36.105
  30. Family Trainer (Bandai Namco) - 35.273
  31. Fatal Frame: Maiden of Black Water (Koei Tecmo) - 30.364
  32. Power Pro Kun Pocket R (Konami) - 30.103
  33. Densha de Go!! (Square Enix) - 29.624
  34. Apex Legends: Champion Edition (Electronic Arts) - 29.057
  35. Danganronpa Decadence + Danganronpa S (Spike Chunsoft) - 27.626
  36. eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 27.539
  37. Disney Magical World 2: Enchanted Edition (Bandai Namco) - 26.823
  38. Disgaea 6: Defiance of Destiny (Nippon Ichi) - 25.744
  39. Jack Jeanne (Broccoli) - 25.518
  40. Tokimeki Memorial: Girl's Side 4th Heart (Konami) - 24.319 
  41. Dragon Quest X: Heavenly Heroes Online (Square Enix) - 22.702
  42. Neo: The World Ends with You (Square Enix) - 22.028
  43. Eiga Sumikko Gurashi (Nippon Columbia) - 20.613
  44. The Quintessential Quintuplets Double Integral (Mages.) - 20.374
  45. A-Train: All Aboard! Tourism (Artdink) - 20.043
  46. The Great Ace Attorney Chronicles (Capcom) – 18.197
  47. Angelique Luminarise (Koei Tecmo) - 14.506
  48. Winning Post 9 2021 (Koei Tecmo) - 14.368
  49. Monark (FuRyu) - 12.880 
  50. Doki Doki Literature Club Plus! (Playism) - 12.266

TOTAL: 7.534.943

Considering the vast majority of titles in this list sold a lot of additional copies outside the Top 30 list and there is one week left which is probably the biggest week of the year in terms of evergreen software sales - no doubt that third party software will surpass PS4's 9.10M total from 2018. I'm guessing you are referencing the Media Create Top 1000 which featured 371 PS4 third party games - in this list there is only 50 and we are likely close to hitting PS4's Third Party peak with the unaccounted sales and additional week. 

In all likelihood Switch third party sales this year are going to be over 10 million, the main thing I'm asking myself is how many Switch games will make the Top 1000, at this point I'm expecting over 750.  

Last edited by noshten - on 30 December 2021

Wyrdness on 30 December 2021
konnichiwa said:

Not that I come close to agreeing with SRC but we have no clue whats going to happen when sony increases the shipments for Japan + more game releases. So far it looks to be a demand otherwise it would not be sold out. Also don't really think Japanese game companies are worried most of them have their biggest financial succes with Sony and the West is their biggest market. I think making a game exclusive for Switch is still seen as a bigger risk.

Falcom seem to think otherwise, the biggest successes for these companies is when the brand is healthy in the region and ironically Falcom highlight the mode of logic you posted here their biggest successes were on PS so they stuck to the platform exclusively and now with the brand declining their sales are down and have started in house Switch development after being forced into contracting studios to port their games to NS that's the reality right now.

Capcom made a Switch exclusive this year and it sold 7m with half those sales coming from Japan.



QUAKECore89 on 30 December 2021

This Famitsu sales week is all Nintendo Switch software again, especially...

>12./00. [NSW] Record of Lodoss War: Deedlit in Wonder Labyrinth (Playism) {2021.12.16} (¥3.618) - 10.374 / NEW <60-80%>

This game isn't even Switch exclusive, it's also released for the PlayStation 4 and 5 physically, a multiplatform game and no where to see this version on the list?