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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu sales: Week 51, 2021 - (13th Dec - 19th Dec)

Wyrdness said:
konnichiwa said:

1) I thought about it and I see that the horrible sales has lead to more SE announcement for PS including a big one called FFXIV that is skipping switch. 

2) You say this exactly in the week when PS DW empires 9 seems to outsell the switch version.

3) I said devs probably still see making a game for switch exclusive as a risk.  That's why we see bigger projects like Tales/scarlet Nexus/Resident evil on PS but not on switch. And 2022 basically starts with elden Ring one another game on PS that skips switch. PS hardware sales are down for a long time but still devs prefer to make a game for PS.    

1) FFXVI also hasn't got an Xbox or PC version announced either indicating a timed exclusive deal is in place, not only could we very much see those versions become a thing but a version for the NS successor could become a thing as well so this doesn't really back your argument in anyway.

2) One outlier doesn't offset recent years of top 30s an example being the Metroidvania title Deedlit where the PS version didn't even chart at retail.

3) Those games you mentioned were in development years back as much as four to five years and they were in development for PS4 which still had a decent presence in the region and only had to contend with the WiiU for the longest time so the was still decent userbase to sell to this is not the same case for PS5 which has a very different battle on its hands. The problem you're not realizing which is the main reason people are highlighting the situation is the Switch sets up its successor which very much could be a hybrid that is in range of PS5's performance and that's before the possibility of features like DLSS being available, this negates any power gap and if it even gains a bit of the Switch's momentum and the PS5 is still selling 1m year in the region (which could leave it at like 3-4m at that point) the platform could outsell it with in the year and then you have a situation where PS5 is fighting from behind against a platform that has the potential to sell 30m more than triple what it's expected to with its decline and the power gap gone.

That's the point where what people are highlighting about developers shifting focus begins to take hold which is why a company like Falcom releasing their statement says a lot as if their sales are dropping on the PS4 and have started inhouse NS development what do you think happens at that point when the is no PS4 and just the PS5 being handled the way it currently is? You mention FFXVI I'll go on record and make you a bet that DQXII already has a Switch version in the bag simply as that's how impactful performance in the region is.

That's an easy safe bet. DQ XI was originally only for PS4, then Square Enix chose to make a 3DS version later because of it's much higher install base. DQ is a huge franchise in Japan more so than FF. So Square Enix are easily going to make sure DQ succeeds in the region it sells most in, which means they need to bring it out on the most successful system. DQ isn't nearly as big in the West compared to Japan, so Square Enix cannot risk losing those sales, whereas FF they can since that sells more in the West.



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Farsala said:
zorg1000 said:

Idk

2014 vs 2020

Sony-647 vs 480

Nintendo-317 vs 520

That seems like a pretty large shift, Sony went from having over twice as many games as Nintendo in the top 1000 to having less.

At the same time 2007 (top 500) vs 2014.

Sony- 202 (40.4%) vs 647

Nintendo- 279 (54.8%) vs 317

Like wow Nintendo almost had less in the top 1000 than the top 500 (2007) during the Wii U era. But Sony in 2007 is still weaker than Sony in 2020, but I don't recall a major 3rd party shift back then.

I want to lay out 3 key points to this flawed comparison.

2014 had the Wii U as the main console

2020 is NSW peak Software year (2021 should be higher though)

and PS5s launch year (opposite of peak).

Even still 2020 isn't that weak compared to even earlier years.

Basically I won't accept comparisons with the Wii U as any sort of trend, because that console was clearly a fluke.

It’s not a comparison to Wii U, it’s Nintendo/Sony as a whole and yes there was a major shift in 3rd party support. According to the Nintendo IR site, 3DS+Wii U (under 800) had ~1/3 the number of retail releases as DS+Wii (over 2300) in Japan.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Sogreblute said:

That's an easy safe bet. DQ XI was originally only for PS4, then Square Enix chose to make a 3DS version later because of it's much higher install base. DQ is a huge franchise in Japan more so than FF. So Square Enix are easily going to make sure DQ succeeds in the region it sells most in, which means they need to bring it out on the most successful system. DQ isn't nearly as big in the West compared to Japan, so Square Enix cannot risk losing those sales, whereas FF they can since that sells more in the West.

That's kind of the the point I'm making to highlight titles and developers who rely on the region heavily.

Last edited by Wyrdness - on 01 January 2022

zorg1000 said:
Farsala said:

At the same time 2007 (top 500) vs 2014.

Sony- 202 (40.4%) vs 647

Nintendo- 279 (54.8%) vs 317

Like wow Nintendo almost had less in the top 1000 than the top 500 (2007) during the Wii U era. But Sony in 2007 is still weaker than Sony in 2020, but I don't recall a major 3rd party shift back then.

I want to lay out 3 key points to this flawed comparison.

2014 had the Wii U as the main console

2020 is NSW peak Software year (2021 should be higher though)

and PS5s launch year (opposite of peak).

Even still 2020 isn't that weak compared to even earlier years.

Basically I won't accept comparisons with the Wii U as any sort of trend, because that console was clearly a fluke.

It’s not a comparison to Wii U, it’s Nintendo/Sony as a whole and yes there was a major shift in 3rd party support. According to the Nintendo IR site, 3DS+Wii U (under 800) had ~1/3 the number of retail releases as DS+Wii (over 2300) in Japan.

That is kind of my point. DS+Wii is somewhat normal Nintendo, NSW is a return to form.



Farsala said:
zorg1000 said:

It’s not a comparison to Wii U, it’s Nintendo/Sony as a whole and yes there was a major shift in 3rd party support. According to the Nintendo IR site, 3DS+Wii U (under 800) had ~1/3 the number of retail releases as DS+Wii (over 2300) in Japan.

That is kind of my point. DS+Wii is somewhat normal Nintendo, NSW is a return to form.

NES ~1200 (~20m hardware)

1/2 GB+SNES ~2000 (~33m hardware)

1/2 GB+N64 ~900 (~22m hardware)

GBA+GC ~1100 (~21m hardware)

DS+Wii ~2300 (~45m hardware)

3DS+Wii U ~800 (~28m hardware)

Switch ~1000 (~23m hardware)

DS/Wii are not the norm



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
Farsala said:

That is kind of my point. DS+Wii is somewhat normal Nintendo, NSW is a return to form.

NES ~1200 (~20m hardware)

1/2 GB+SNES ~2000 (~33m hardware)

1/2 GB+N64 ~900 (~22m hardware)

GBA+GC ~1100 (~21m hardware)

DS+Wii ~2300 (~45m hardware)

3DS+Wii U ~800 (~28m hardware)

Switch ~1000 (~23m hardware)

DS/Wii are not the norm

DS + Wii is 45M hardware. 1/3 of the population have some Nintendo videogame. It´s not the norm, it´s expanded the market. The switch may reach more than 35+M, break a single dedicated videogame, but I don´t believe reaches Ds + Wii heights. I lived in Japan in 2007/2010 never seen videogame crazy likewise the seventh generation.  



zorg1000 said:
Farsala said:

That is kind of my point. DS+Wii is somewhat normal Nintendo, NSW is a return to form.

NES ~1200 (~20m hardware)

1/2 GB+SNES ~2000 (~33m hardware)

1/2 GB+N64 ~900 (~22m hardware)

GBA+GC ~1100 (~21m hardware)

DS+Wii ~2300 (~45m hardware)

3DS+Wii U ~800 (~28m hardware)

Switch ~1000 (~23m hardware)

DS/Wii are not the norm

NES ~1200 (~20m hardware)

1/2 GB+SNES ~2000 (~33m hardware)

Is far more impressive than DS+ Wii for obvious reasons.

So that would be 4 out 7 being impressive if we include the Switch.



Endymion said:
src said:

News at 11, software declines as consoles get old and new ones have yet to peak. OMG what a discovery.

2006: Nintendo: 44M

2009: Nintendo: 42M

2021: Nintendo: 23M

Oh no look at that decline.

Its going to get even worse for Nintendo on Switch's last year and their new console's first year. Software sales could be <20M in total, their lowest in nearly 20 years, a 50%+ decline.

Sure the units sales count is going down from the past due to the rise in budgets, platform consolidation and the rise of digital sales but the Nintendo trend and PlayStation trend are very different.

Nintendo had ups and downs instead PlayStation experienced a nose-dive decline.

From InstallBaseForum:

The blue line ain't gonna be looking perky when 2021 sales form the next dot point. This year saw PS software virtually collapse in Japan even compared to 2020.



theDX said:

Famitsu chart updated like this in my dreams

I'm donating this to VGChartz as a preliminary sales estimate

What is this?



When it comes to the decline of Playstation in Japan something pretty much everyone can probably agree on is that it's a bad thing. Japanese developers only having one good option for domestic sales would be a negative development. That one option having weak specs would make it particularly bad.