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Forums - Sales Discussion - September NPD 2021 thread

Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

Thankfully, Donny was still there.And  that Peek-a-boo!'s prediction was perfect.

Here is his prediction.

[NSW] 380K
[PS5] 420K
[XBS] 250K

On the other hand, in vgc 

NSW 330492

PS5 334553

XBS 245390

 

 

 

 

 

I think VGChartz' tool is missing a week. PS5 tracking is spot on (post adjustments), Switch and especially Xbox are overtracked.

Last edited by Kyuu - on 30 October 2021

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Kyuu said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

Thankfully, Donny was still there.And  that Peek-a-boo!'s prediction was perfect.

Here is his prediction.

[NSW] 380K
[PS5] 420K
[XBS] 250K

On the other hand, in vgc 

NSW 330492

PS5 334553

XBS 245390

 

 

 

 

 

I think VGChartz' tool is missing a week. PS5 tracking is spot on (post adjustments), Switch and especially Xbox are overtracked.

 

These are the Numbers before adjustment  according to zippy6

NSW:329k

PS5:315k

XBS:245k

Even if we revise it to 5 weeks, it's going to be a completely different number than npd.



My prediction in 2021.

SW: 30m

PS5 16m

XBS: 7.5m

jlauro said:
Kakadu18 said:

Resetera was sold? When was that?

A little over 2 weeks ago to M.O.B.A. Network for 4.5 million.

That site is worth that much? What a waste of money.



These are the numbers from Xevross. Probably the correct number for this thread.

355k < Switch < 387k
404k < PS5 < 425k
226k < XBS < 258k



My prediction in 2021.

SW: 30m

PS5 16m

XBS: 7.5m

Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

These are the numbers from Xevross. Probably the correct number for this thread.

355k < Switch < 387k
404k < PS5 < 425k
226k < XBS < 258k

I'm curious as to why VGC chose to bump up their Series XS estimates worldwide following MS' earnings report which imo showed a likely global overtracking...

For July-Sept:

-Playstation reported a 287% hardware revenue increase YoY.

-Xbox reported a 166% hardware revenue increase YoY.

PS4 reported a weak 393 million $ hardware revenue last year. Xbox didn't report hw revenues but we can extrapolate from NPD's sell through data and common sense that it was a lot lower than Playstation's (Maybe around 200-250 million $).

NPD 2020 sell through:

July
PS4 150k
XB1 17k

August
PS4 197k
XB1 45k

September
PS4 160K
XB1 91K

And NPD only covers Xbox's strongest market...

Other factors worth mentioning is the average Xbox One price being much lower than Series XS (Xbox One X was discontinued in July last year) and maybe even lower than PS4's. The numbers just don't add up!

Last edited by Kyuu - on 30 October 2021

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Kyuu said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

These are the numbers from Xevross. Probably the correct number for this thread.

355k < Switch < 387k
404k < PS5 < 425k
226k < XBS < 258k

I'm curious as to why VGC chose to bump up their Series XS estimates worldwide following MS' earnings report which imo showed a likely global overtracking...

For July-Sept:

-Playstation reported a 287% hardware revenue increase YoY.

-Xbox reported a 166% hardware revenue increase YoY.

PS4 reported a weak 393 million $ hardware revenue last year. Xbox didn't report hw revenues but we can extrapolate from NPD's sell through data and common sense that it was a lot lower than Playstation's (Maybe around 200-250 million $).

NPD 2020 sell through:

July
PS4 150k
XB1 17k

August
PS4 197k
XB1 45k

September
PS4 160K
XB1 91K

And NPD only covers Xbox's strongest market...

Other factors worth mentioning is the average Xbox One price being much lower than Series XS (Xbox One X was discontinued in July last year) and maybe even lower than PS4's. The numbers just don't add up!

I find this happens more so now because this site likes to keep in line with John Welfare's Twitter account..



Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

These are the numbers from Xevross. Probably the correct number for this thread.

355k < Switch < 387k
404k < PS5 < 425k
226k < XBS < 258k

I see we got a range of numbers for NPD. I will go ahead and adjust our US estimates for the month. 

Pre- adjustments we have the following for the 5 week NPD period:

PS5: 421K

NS: 409K

XSX|S: 312K

That means PS5 estimates are good and in the range. Switch is 22K+ too high and Xbox Series X|S is 54K+ too high.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Blood_Tears said:
Kyuu said:

I'm curious as to why VGC chose to bump up their Series XS estimates worldwide following MS' earnings report which imo showed a likely global overtracking...

For July-Sept:

-Playstation reported a 287% hardware revenue increase YoY.

-Xbox reported a 166% hardware revenue increase YoY.

PS4 reported a weak 393 million $ hardware revenue last year. Xbox didn't report hw revenues but we can extrapolate from NPD's sell through data and common sense that it was a lot lower than Playstation's (Maybe around 200-250 million $).

NPD 2020 sell through:

July
PS4 150k
XB1 17k

August
PS4 197k
XB1 45k

September
PS4 160K
XB1 91K

And NPD only covers Xbox's strongest market...

Other factors worth mentioning is the average Xbox One price being much lower than Series XS (Xbox One X was discontinued in July last year) and maybe even lower than PS4's. The numbers just don't add up!

I find this happens more so now because this site likes to keep in line with John Welfare's Twitter account..

Daniel Ahmad (ZHuge) has his estimates for Xbox Series X|S over 8 million at the end of September. That could be anywhere from 8m to 8.4m. Welfare put his estimates at 8.3m. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Blood_Tears said:
Kyuu said:

I'm curious as to why VGC chose to bump up their Series XS estimates worldwide following MS' earnings report which imo showed a likely global overtracking...

For July-Sept:

-Playstation reported a 287% hardware revenue increase YoY.

-Xbox reported a 166% hardware revenue increase YoY.

PS4 reported a weak 393 million $ hardware revenue last year. Xbox didn't report hw revenues but we can extrapolate from NPD's sell through data and common sense that it was a lot lower than Playstation's (Maybe around 200-250 million $).

NPD 2020 sell through:

July
PS4 150k
XB1 17k

August
PS4 197k
XB1 45k

September
PS4 160K
XB1 91K

And NPD only covers Xbox's strongest market...

Other factors worth mentioning is the average Xbox One price being much lower than Series XS (Xbox One X was discontinued in July last year) and maybe even lower than PS4's. The numbers just don't add up!

I find this happens more so now because this site likes to keep in line with John Welfare's Twitter account..

This was Welfare's prediction. Looks like a completely different number than vgc.

[PS5] 450K   (vgc) 315k
[NSW] 330K  (vgc)329k
[XBS] 295K   (vgc)245k

Last edited by Oneeee-Chan!!! - on 30 October 2021

My prediction in 2021.

SW: 30m

PS5 16m

XBS: 7.5m

Kyuu said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

These are the numbers from Xevross. Probably the correct number for this thread.

355k < Switch < 387k
404k < PS5 < 425k
226k < XBS < 258k

I'm curious as to why VGC chose to bump up their Series XS estimates worldwide following MS' earnings report which imo showed a likely global overtracking...

For July-Sept:

-Playstation reported a 287% hardware revenue increase YoY.

-Xbox reported a 166% hardware revenue increase YoY.

PS4 reported a weak 393 million $ hardware revenue last year. Xbox didn't report hw revenues but we can extrapolate from NPD's sell through data and common sense that it was a lot lower than Playstation's (Maybe around 200-250 million $).

NPD 2020 sell through:

July
PS4 150k
XB1 17k

August
PS4 197k
XB1 45k

September
PS4 160K
XB1 91K

And NPD only covers Xbox's strongest market...

Other factors worth mentioning is the average Xbox One price being much lower than Series XS (Xbox One X was discontinued in July last year) and maybe even lower than PS4's. The numbers just don't add up!

Thank you. I just saw the article.

The Xbox business is full of uncertainties, so official figures like this are really valuable.



My prediction in 2021.

SW: 30m

PS5 16m

XBS: 7.5m