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Forums - Sales Discussion - September NPD 2021 thread

Welfare on 31 October 2021
Kyuu said:
Welfare said:

Trunkswd is not using my predictions I made weeks ago to estimate NPD.

And just for context since I've been brought up, even though I overestimated September (only because I raised Xbox when I raised PS5) my estimate for Xbox hardware revenue was actually lower by a bit. I think I put on Twitter +135% when it was actually +166%

Xbox does better worldwide now. US isn't +50% of total share anymore.

How much money you reckon Xbox made from hardware in July-September last year? It couldn't possibly be close to Playstation when it was selling less than half the units in its primary market. One S being cheaper and One X getting discontinued in July should also bring down the average price per unit sold.

And I'd like to know your estimates of 2021 July-Sept's Series S/X splits. Is it reasonable to assume it was around 75/25 for Series S?

I calculated Xbox hardware revenue for July to September 2020 was ~$267M.

I estimate Series S closer to 60-65% of XBS last quarter 



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

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Oneeee-Chan!!! on 31 October 2021
Welfare said:
Kyuu said:

How much money you reckon Xbox made from hardware in July-September last year? It couldn't possibly be close to Playstation when it was selling less than half the units in its primary market. One S being cheaper and One X getting discontinued in July should also bring down the average price per unit sold.

And I'd like to know your estimates of 2021 July-Sept's Series S/X splits. Is it reasonable to assume it was around 75/25 for Series S?

I calculated Xbox hardware revenue for July to September 2020 was ~$267M.

I estimate Series S closer to 60-65% of XBS last quarter 

So that's two-thirds of the ps4? I can't believe the xbo was selling that well at that time.

If it's 68 percent of ps4 in terms of sales revenue, it should be more than 70 percent in terms of sales unit.It's even more unlikely that it will last for three months.

Last edited by Oneeee-Chan!!! - on 31 October 2021

Welfare on 31 October 2021

Something to keep in mind is that Xbox One was near dead at retail by December so it's reasonable to assume that the previous quarter was the "last" big quarter Microsoft would've shipped XB1 so they could focus on XBS.

Also the pandemic would've caused them to ship all the units they had in reserves early so being "close" to PS4 isn't a concern. Microsoft and Sony were shipping everything in 2020, not just expected supply~demand as with previous years.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

Oneeee-Chan!!! on 10 November 2021

Ryn hasn't been here for a long time, so you may not see the NPD predictions thread for October. I will try to make a thread showing the results if no one else makes one. 

Since there is no thread, I will post my predictions for October here.

[NSW] 680K
[PS5] 320K
[XBS] 180K

And vgc....  I wonder if October has five weeks ?

[NSW] 788920
[PS5] 415198
[XBS] 356883

Last edited by Oneeee-Chan!!! - on 10 November 2021