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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - OLED Switch - Closing poll, thank you for participating - Christmas week (Week 12 was 1.083M)

 

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Kakadu18 said:

I'm going with 1.5mil. Lower than last year but still high.

I thought your prediction was high but damn!



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In 2020 the week after BF sold 1,256,788 units. So having the minimum poll option as <1.3m might be a bit high as I think that's very very likely.

Going to stop making predictions based on the random amount of stock I think might or might not be available and instead a slight decline from 2020 numbers.

I'd predict about 1.2m dead.

Weeks After BF Switch 2020 Switch 2021
0 (BF Week) 1,680,741 1,614,507
1 1,256,788 ?
2 1,401,099 ?
3 1,520,436 ?
4 1,157,994 ?
5 681,341 ?
Total 7,698,399 ?


Gamerscore:20,000  -  Trophies:3,800 -  Nintendo Awards: -1

My Xbox Series S is my baby. It grew up into an X.

Zippy6 said:

In 2020 the week after BF sold 1,256,788 units. So having the minimum poll option as <1.3m might be a bit high as I think that's very very likely.

Going to stop making predictions based on the random amount of stock I think might or might not be available and instead a slight decline from 2020 numbers.

I'd predict about 1.2m dead.

Weeks After BFSwitch 2020Switch 2021
0 (BF Week)1,680,7411,614,507
11,256,788?
21,401,099?
31,520,436?
41,157,994?
5681,341?
Total7,698,399?

Alright I fixed the poll, let me know if it's good. I'm going for 1.35M this time.



padib said:

Alright I fixed the poll, let me know if it's good. I'm going for 1.35M this time.

Looks good, I've gone with 1.15m-1.225m option.



Gamerscore:20,000  -  Trophies:3,800 -  Nintendo Awards: -1

My Xbox Series S is my baby. It grew up into an X.

Went with the 1.225-1.3mil option. Around last years numbers. Expect sales to rise in Japan/Asia and drop everywhere else. If I'm right they have indeed more stock than previously anticipated. If it's lower that means they stocked an extra big amount for Black Friday.



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Well briefly sales for Week 8 were above 1.7m after Europe adjusments, but now NPD has come in and Week 8 is down to 1.49m If the same 17% drop YoY from BF week carries over to Week 9 we'll be looking at 1.04m sales.



Gamerscore:20,000  -  Trophies:3,800 -  Nintendo Awards: -1

My Xbox Series S is my baby. It grew up into an X.

Zippy6 said:

Well briefly sales for Week 8 were above 1.7m after Europe adjusments, but now NPD has come in and Week 8 is down to 1.49m If the same 17% drop YoY from BF week carries over to Week 9 we'll be looking at 1.04m sales.

I added an "After Adjustments" column.

The numbers are much more volatile than I thought, what I like about this exercise is that it forces us to look at the numbers from much closer, and it also exposes how very little we know of what will be shipped and/or sold within a week. Even with the trends of last years, some factors came into play this year that I didn't personally expect.



padib said:
Zippy6 said:

Well briefly sales for Week 8 were above 1.7m after Europe adjusments, but now NPD has come in and Week 8 is down to 1.49m If the same 17% drop YoY from BF week carries over to Week 9 we'll be looking at 1.04m sales.

I added an "After Adjustments" column.

The numbers are much more volatile than I thought, what I like about this exercise is that it forces us to look at the numbers from much closer, and it also exposes how very little we know of what will be shipped and/or sold within a week. Even with the trends of last years, some factors came into play this year that I didn't personally expect.

I try my best to be as accurate as possible, but this time of year is the hardest.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:
padib said:

I added an "After Adjustments" column.

The numbers are much more volatile than I thought, what I like about this exercise is that it forces us to look at the numbers from much closer, and it also exposes how very little we know of what will be shipped and/or sold within a week. Even with the trends of last years, some factors came into play this year that I didn't personally expect.

I try my best to be as accurate as possible, but this time of year is the hardest.

You're doing great man, I love your work. You're a machine.

Strong flow of articles, punctual numbers. I only have praise for you when I come on here.



padib said:
trunkswd said:

I try my best to be as accurate as possible, but this time of year is the hardest.

You're doing great man, I love your work. You're a machine.

Strong flow of articles, punctual numbers. I only have praise for you when I come on here.

Thank you! I appreciate the support. Reading messages like that helps keep me motivated.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.