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Forums - Politics - Holy shit, Canada's having an election! But why?

With 4 seats left to call and 1 going to a recount the CBC has called it that the Liberals will have a minority government.



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EricHiggin said:
SanAndreasX said:

That's a breathtaking fall from grace. Went from being a shoo-in as the next Prime Minister to losing his own riding. 

Shenanigans like this sure didn't help. Only in PP's riding? You really expect people to believe you simply couldn't get it accomplished anywhere else?

As for salt, there ain't that much when it comes to the Con politicians or voters, and for one key reason, and boy is it ever sweet.

The main, majority reason why the Libs won, is because they were 'saved' by who they hate most. The irony is on another level.

Just when you think the world has completely flipped, you realize there's more to go before it's totally upside down.

Little salt, but spot on



Bittersweet 'victory' for Liberal thanks to that monster up there.

Anyway a deadlock can very well happen with new elections before the 4 year term is up.

For my own riding, my vote didn't matter at all. Conservatives got more votes than all other parties combined. The sign count (my kid did) matched the results lol.



Ryuu96 said:

womp womp



A warrior keeps death on the mind from the moment of their first breath to the moment of their last.



Final tally:
Liberals - 169 - 8,560,882 - 43.7%
Conservative - 144 - 8,079,303 - 41.3%
Bloc Québécois - 22 - 1,232,513 - 6.3%
New Democratic Party - 7 - 1,236,525 - 6.3%
Green Party of Canada - 1 - 244,875 - 1.3%
 
While it's a good story to say Trump cost the Conservatives the election, it's inaccurate, or perhaps a better way to put it: not the full story. He was calling for tariffs and calling Canada the 51st state a whole month before the swing took place, back in mid-December 2024. Trudeau announced in January that he was stepping down triggering a swing, and Mark Carney was set to replace him later in the month. And immediately, the polls swung hard. While the Trump tariffs probably had some impact, that was a few weeks after the shift in polls.
 
I'm in agreement with Ford's campaign manager's take on the two major reasons why Conservatives lost such a dominant lead.
 
First, it's because they positioned themselves as the Alternative To Trudeau and Axe the (Carbon) Tax party. They focused on pumping a lot of rage and sloganeering into that. is that they positioned themselves as the not Trudeau and not Carbon tax party. When those two factors were removed, so too did their campaign. He pointed out about how that's why you can't have a campaign built on negatives, because if those negatives go away, you stand for nothing. That's why 10% of Conservatives flipped to Carney after polling .
 
Why did the NPD base switch? That's the second point, and that's where the Trump part comes in and the other stupid thing the Conservatives were doing: Making the face of their party a Trump Mini-Me - repeating MAGA fascistic sounding slogans like "Canada First" and "Woke-this, woke-that, we gotta end woke". That almost certainly scared the NDP into flipping to Carney's Liberals because they feared having a Vichy-MAGA government in power. But I'd personally add that the momentum shift really hammered home that NDP weren't the answer, and that's why their abandonment came a few weeks after (in early February) the Conservative flip. As NDP were still polling at 17-18% at the end of January and start of February, it was week 2 of February that they dropped off a cliff after the Conservatives dropped from 47% down to 41% in early to mid January.
 
As long as the Conservatives run easy to counter campaigns, they'll be easy to defeat like this. And frankly, their ad campaign was a fucking joke, literally a sitcom level joke. Their ads looked like this:


I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Jumpin said:
Final tally:
Liberals - 169 - 8,560,882 - 43.7%
Conservative - 144 - 8,079,303 - 41.3%
Bloc Québécois - 22 - 1,232,513 - 6.3%
New Democratic Party - 7 - 1,236,525 - 6.3%
Green Party of Canada - 1 - 244,875 - 1.3%
 
While it's a good story to say Trump cost the Conservatives the election, it's inaccurate, or perhaps a better way to put it: not the full story. He was calling for tariffs and calling Canada the 51st state a whole month before the swing took place, back in mid-December 2024. Trudeau announced in January that he was stepping down triggering a swing, and Mark Carney was set to replace him later in the month. And immediately, the polls swung hard. While the Trump tariffs probably had some impact, that was a few weeks after the shift in polls.
 
I'm in agreement with Ford's campaign manager's take on the two major reasons why Conservatives lost such a dominant lead.
 
First, it's because they positioned themselves as the Alternative To Trudeau and Axe the (Carbon) Tax party. They focused on pumping a lot of rage and sloganeering into that. is that they positioned themselves as the not Trudeau and not Carbon tax party. When those two factors were removed, so too did their campaign. He pointed out about how that's why you can't have a campaign built on negatives, because if those negatives go away, you stand for nothing. That's why 10% of Conservatives flipped to Carney after polling .
 
Why did the NPD base switch? That's the second point, and that's where the Trump part comes in and the other stupid thing the Conservatives were doing: Making the face of their party a Trump Mini-Me - repeating MAGA fascistic sounding slogans like "Canada First" and "Woke-this, woke-that, we gotta end woke". That almost certainly scared the NDP into flipping to Carney's Liberals because they feared having a Vichy-MAGA government in power. But I'd personally add that the momentum shift really hammered home that NDP weren't the answer, and that's why their abandonment came a few weeks after (in early February) the Conservative flip. As NDP were still polling at 17-18% at the end of January and start of February, it was week 2 of February that they dropped off a cliff after the Conservatives dropped from 47% down to 41% in early to mid January.
 
As long as the Conservatives run easy to counter campaigns, they'll be easy to defeat like this. And frankly, their ad campaign was a fucking joke, literally a sitcom level joke. Their ads looked like this:

It was mostly Trump.

When he first started trolling, it was framed as just Trump being a jerk for the most part. It wasn't until the media started to turn on Trudeau, and whispers started about him stepping down, with Trump turning up the heat, until the framing changed to, 'Trumps going to annex Canada, elbows up'.

The top priority polls even showed this. Canada has an older pop, so the boomer vote is extremely important, and the polls showed they only really cared about healthcare a fair amount, and A LOT about fighting back against Trump. When it came to things like affordability, the economy, crime, jobs, the older generation didn't seem to care.

NDP votes further show this. They purposely switched to Libs because they knew if they didn't, it would be too close to call and the Cons might win. This isn't normal, and the reason those NDP voters did this, is because they were under the impression that Trump was too much of a threat and that Pierre would just hand Canada over to Trump, which was ridiculous if you actually had any idea what Pierre's campaign was about.

Even more pointing to Trump, as you said, negatives, and taking them away leaving your competition with nothing, is what happened with Trump going quiet in the later weeks of the election. The polls showed the high the Libs hit, dropped during that timeframe, to put them neck and neck basically with the Cons. As soon as Trump seemed to back off, the Lib lead started to wane.

Trump was never going to take Canada. 51 was only ever going to possibly happen, eventually, if Canada stayed on the same track and kept weakening itself, which is exactly what the Lib voters have now continued, which they clearly didn't realize. Which isn't a surprise, because most boomers I know, including one of my parents, don't have a clue about politics or how the Gov works, and believe most of what the CAN or USA media says without question.

If the media hadn't pushed the Trump narrative so hard, the election would've remained about Canada and the last decade of Lib Fed Gov. That's the reason the Country is so weak and why Trump is able to totally get away with this, because we can't do squat in the grand scheme of things. Pierre would've won if Trump would've gone quiet soon after Trudeau stepped down, but the step down probably wouldn't have happened (as soon) without the Trump trolling opportunity arising in the first place.



PS1   - ! - We must build a console that can alert our enemies.

PS2  - @- We must build a console that offers online living room gaming.

PS3   - #- We must build a console that’s powerful, social, costs and does everything.

PS4   - $- We must build a console that’s affordable, charges for services, and pumps out exclusives.

PRO  -%-We must build a console that's VR ready, checkerboard upscales, and sells but a fraction of the money printer.

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dharh said:
Ryuu96 said:

womp womp

PP was right to be very general about this point. 'If Canadians don't do their job well, they're going to lose it.' 

Canadians just did a poor job at the ballot box, and now they're going to find out how many jobs they lose because of that.



PS1   - ! - We must build a console that can alert our enemies.

PS2  - @- We must build a console that offers online living room gaming.

PS3   - #- We must build a console that’s powerful, social, costs and does everything.

PS4   - $- We must build a console that’s affordable, charges for services, and pumps out exclusives.

PRO  -%-We must build a console that's VR ready, checkerboard upscales, and sells but a fraction of the money printer.

PS5   - ^ -We must build a console that’s a generational cross product, with RT lighting, and price hiking.

PRO  -&- We must build a console that Super Res upscales and continues the cost increases.

EricHiggin said:
dharh said:

womp womp

PP was right to be very general about this point. 'If Canadians don't do their job well, they're going to lose it.' 

Canadians just did a poor job at the ballot box, and now they're going to find out how many jobs they lose because of that.

You wrote US Republicans wrong



I've noticed a lot of so-called leftists on social media calling Carney a Neoliberal. I'm not really sure they know what a neoliberal is and just use it as a pejorative for people they perceive as being right-wing or centrists.

The most Neoliberal thing in Canadian leadership politics since the early 1990s, as far as I can tell, is Stephen Harper's haircut.

But in seriousness:

As far as I can tell, Neoliberalism was a major political movement in Canada around the same time as the UK, in the late 1970s to the mid-1980s, but largely waned after that. It was all but dead by 1993, that election was a referendum against Neoliberalism. And while much of the framework remained, the era of Chrétien, Martin, and Harper were largely about the dismantling of that framework. By the time of Trudeau, it was already history.

* Neoliberalism advocates for "let the free market decide" and slashing of taxes and regulations. While this policy was on the agenda for Mulroney and (presumably) Kim Campbell, it doesn't seem Chretien, Trudeau, Martin, or even Harper favoured this. And Carney was instrumental in the Macroprudential regulation on the banks to mitigate the impacts of the financial crisis of 2008 - quite in the face of neoliberal policy.

* To tack onto this, Carney advocates in something closer to a Keynesian framework, in direct opposition to neoliberalism, in order to repair the construction industry in Canada, which is currently overpriced and underdeveloped, and the free market is not interested in investing in something that drives their asset prices down - Carney is.

* Another major tenet is the privatization of public industry and services - this is probably the best place to pin Carney down if you want to call him a neoliberal - but taking this one piece of the framework is weak at best, as while he was responsible in being part of overseeing the selling off Petro-Canada assets to public companies, his aforementioned establishment of public programs and increasing crown corporation funding indicates the opposite of this approach. It's a mixed bag. But Canada as a whole, this was the first major defeat of Neoliberalism back in the 1980s when they failed to dismantle medicare for all. There was a famous speech by NDP founder Tommy Douglas that lit the fire under the asses of Canadian politicians. If Carney was a Neoliberal, he'd be championing their major battles. Instead, I predict that he'll probably use de-privatization of certain sectors as bargaining chips for the NDP and Bloc Québécois for when he needs them for something - kind of like the Trudeau administration with the dental thing.

* Individualism, or rather de-emphasis on class consciousness and an emphasis on personal responsibility - from a rhetorical standpoint, back in the UK, Carney went so far as to quote Marx and Engels and explain why they're relevant. But, most recently, his government funded apprenticeship program flies in the face of this tenet.

* The other thing that can probably be pinned on him is that he did seem to favour globalization. One of the big movements of neoliberalism was the expansion of free trade and the deregulation of third world economies and agreements like NAFTA - however, this isn't exclusively beneficial to neoliberalism as all forms of liberalism (or libertarianism, as some call it these days) generally advocate for free trade - even communist theory advocates for globalized trade - although, it also advocates for the dismantling of all political boundaries and the withering of the state. But, on the other hand, one of the first things Carney did was give a eulogy for NAFTA and the old order. He's not crusading for NAFTA (what is it, 3.0?) like the neoliberals - and even if he did, it's like saying being against murder is advocacy for Christianity.

* One more element is that Carney favours longterm planning for issues impacting the economy in the longterm, including solutions to the climate crisis and its impact on the financial system, while neoliberalism prioritizes short term fiscal turnarounds.

So, overall. I think using the phrase "Neoliberalism" is a pointless pejorative as it's both ideologically and historically disconnected from the recent Neoliberal era and its chief proponents. Neoliberalism is so far in the past that it's not even worth worrying about anymore since modern corporatization or, as Veroufakis puts it, "technofeudalism" (the increasing dominance of cloud/platform ecosystems in our economy - Google, Apple, and Amazon are good examples) is the main thing leftists should be targeting - as it's clearly replaced neoliberalism in the US. These tech platforms have deep hooks in the rest of the Western economy - but this is all a different topic that is more relevant to American politics.

Last edited by Jumpin - on 30 April 2025

I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Bofferbrauer2 said:
EricHiggin said:

PP was right to be very general about this point. 'If Canadians don't do their job well, they're going to lose it.' 

Canadians just did a poor job at the ballot box, and now they're going to find out how many jobs they lose because of that.

You wrote US Republicans wrong

MAGA as a whole understands and stands behind what Trumps trying to accomplish. That's not saying they don't or won't feel any pains, as they and other Americans will for a while, but if it works out, it will be for the best, especially as to the future. How long that pain lasts really depends on how long Dems, especially their politicians, fight against the attempted economic direction change. The sooner the majority gets on the same page, the sooner these struggles end.



PS1   - ! - We must build a console that can alert our enemies.

PS2  - @- We must build a console that offers online living room gaming.

PS3   - #- We must build a console that’s powerful, social, costs and does everything.

PS4   - $- We must build a console that’s affordable, charges for services, and pumps out exclusives.

PRO  -%-We must build a console that's VR ready, checkerboard upscales, and sells but a fraction of the money printer.

PS5   - ^ -We must build a console that’s a generational cross product, with RT lighting, and price hiking.

PRO  -&- We must build a console that Super Res upscales and continues the cost increases.

EricHiggin said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

You wrote US Republicans wrong

MAGA as a whole understands and stands behind what Trumps trying to accomplish. That's not saying they don't or won't feel any pains, as they and other Americans will for a while, but if it works out, it will be for the best, especially as to the future. How long that pain lasts really depends on how long Dems, especially their politicians, fight against the attempted economic direction change. The sooner the majority gets on the same page, the sooner these struggles end.

Key word is trying. The rest of the world knows fully well that what Trump is trying to achieve simply can't be achieved that way and is doomed to fail. It could have worked if he didn't antagonize everyone and get everybody on the table for a more favorable deal for the US, but that's not the way of Trump.

But since Trump tried to strongarm everyone at once just to flip-flop after meeting some resistance meant that the rest of the world now sees the US as unreliable and tries to actively reduce buying US goods now or simply just not travelling there all while some countries cut some ties with US companies (like China banning new Boeing sales for instance), thus actively hurting the US economy, and finally the uncertainty is hurting the stock market and with it, US companies bottom line.