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Forums - Sports Discussion - The NFL Thread 2021: Week 12 Gameday

 

Who will win Super Bowl LVI?

Kansas City Chiefs 1 5.88%
 
Buffalo Bills 1 5.88%
 
Baltimore Ravens 0 0%
 
Cleveland Browns 1 5.88%
 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 41.18%
 
Green Bay Packers 2 11.76%
 
Los Angeles Rams 1 5.88%
 
New Orleans Saints 0 0%
 
Other (AFC) 3 17.65%
 
Other (NFC) 1 5.88%
 
Total:17
RolStoppable said:


4. There are seven playoff teams per conference. List them according to their seeding.
5. Logical consistence is required. Illogical entries will be blanked once the deadline hits, so make sure to adjust in case you made a mistake.
6. Deadline is the kickoff time of the Season Opening Game.

Category #1 #2 #3 #4
AFC East BUF MIA NE NYJ
AFC North CLE BAL PIT CIN
AFC South TEN IND JAX HOU
AFC West KC DEN LAC LV
NFC East WAS DAL PHI NYG
NFC North GB MIN CHI DET
NFC South TB ATL CAR NO
NFC West LAR SF SEA ARI
#1 Draft Pick HOU - - -
AFC Division Winners KC BUF CLE TEN
AFC Wild Card Teams BAL DEN IND -
NFC Division Winners TB GB LAR WAS
NFC Wild Card Teams SF ATL MIN -
AFC Divisional Playoffs KC BUF CLE TEN
NFC Divisional Playoffs TB GB LAR SF
AFC Championship Game KC CLE - -
NFC Championship Game TB GB - -
Super Bowl Teams TB CLE - -
Super Bowl Winner CLE - - -

Last edited by hatmoza - on 09 September 2021

I am the black sheep     "of course I'm crazy, but that doesn't mean I'm wrong."-Robert Anton Wilson

Around the Network
RolStoppable said:
DAL-TB 2 JAX-HOU 1 LAC-WAS 2 SEA-IND 1
NYJ-CAR 2 MIN-CIN 1 ARI-TEN 2 SF-DET 1
PIT-BUF 2 PHI-ATL 2 CLE-KC 1 GB-NO 1
DEN-NYG 1 MIA-NE 1 CHI-LAR 2 BAL-LV 1

Last edited by hatmoza - on 07 September 2021

I am the black sheep     "of course I'm crazy, but that doesn't mean I'm wrong."-Robert Anton Wilson

ANNOUNCEMENT - Start of the NFL Season and Prediction League

I still have to update the fourth post of this thread with the latest version of the prediction league rules, but since we've exclusively veterans signed up, I don't think this will be a problem. You all know how to submit picks and predictions, so the only uncertainties are the new Hero Pick rule and this year's playoff system.

Hero Pick

The new bonus point opportunity goes into effect for any game in every week that meets the following condition: Only up to three (under 30%) of the submitted picks by the deadline were for the underdog in the matchup. To clarify this further in precise numbers for each scenario of picks, starting at 12 picks - a number of players we'll most probably not have this season - here are the thresholds that cannot be exceeded. Otherwise the game in question ceases to be a hero pick opportunity and therefore belongs into the ordinary toss-up category.

3 out of 12
3 out of 11
2 out of 10
2 out of 9
2 out of 8
2 out of 7
1 out of 6
1 out of 5
1 out of 4
0 out of 3

Remember that the number of submitted picks is what counts, not the number of signed up players. So in case we have a Thursday game where only 6 players submit a pick, there's only one person who can go against the grain and be a hero.

The reasons why I decided on the above numbers where 3 out of 11 and 2 out of 7 exceed the originally proposed 25% threshold are more excitement and simplicity. Based on the currently signed up players (9), we'll effectively have 2 out of X almost every time this season, so it's easy to remember.

Since the games' eligibility for hero picks only gets locked in upon their respective kickoff, it's possible that the status of games can change within the final hour before kickoff. This provides an additional tactical element that swings in both directions.

Successful hero picks will be marked blue in the spreadsheet as opposed to the regular green. Every successful hero pick grants an additional PP in the standings.

Playoff tournament mode

Typically, the playoffs are a knockout round from start to finish, but the minimum number of players should be 12. Since it's not looking like we'll have that many players to begin with, here's the alternative:

A minileague where everyone starts at 0 will span the wild card games and divisional round of the NFL, so that's 10 games to predict with winner and margin of victory as usual. Players will be ranked based on record, followed by lower point differential totals - the total amount of points you've been off with your predicted margins of victory - to break any potential ties. Should there still be ties after this step, then the player who was better during the regular season comes out on top.

As usual, a certain number of picks must have been submitted during the regular season to be eligible for the playoffs. In the past, this used to be 230 picks, but since the NFL added an additional week of games this season, the new number is 245.

The home field advantage of the old days will take on an adjusted form: Every player, except the lowest ranked one of the regular season, will receive a cushion that is calculated against the lowest ranked player of the regular season. This one-time number will then have to do for the total of the 10 games to predict.

The four best players of the minileague will then advance to the semifinals, #1 vs. #4 and #2 vs. #3. Since these rankings can potentially greatly differ from what we've seen during the regular season, the HFA rule is adjusted to a straight-forward 5 points for #1 and 3 points for #2 in order to give a guaranteed incentive to not only finish among the top 4 in the minileague, but win it.

The final won't have an HFA rule as usual, so the traditional Super Bowl rules of the prediction league apply.

Reminder

On Tuesday I'll send a PM to all participants of the prediction league to let everyone have a fair chance to submit a bracket and get their pick for the Season Opening Game in.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

hatmoza said:
RolStoppable said:
DAL-TBTBJAX-HOUJAXLAC-WASWASSEA-INDSEA
NYJ-CARCARMIN-CINMINARI-TENTENSF-DETSF
PIT-BUFBUFPHI-ATLATLCLE-KCCLEGB-NOGB
DEN-NYGDENMIA-NEMIACHI-LARLARBAL-LVBAL

You are supposed to use numbers for the game picks because that makes it faster for me to enter the picks in the spreadsheet.

Your bracket has both CLE and DEN advancing when they would play against each other in the wild card round as third and sixth seed. Consequently, neither team makes it in my spreadsheet and subsequently CLE isn't in the AFC Championship Game nor Super Bowl, let alone wins it. So that's five blank cells in your bracket until you fix the logical inconsistency in your wild card results.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments






Category #1 #2 #3 #4
AFC East BUF MIA NE NYJ
AFC North CLE BAL PIT CIN
AFC South TEN IND JAX HOU
AFC West KC LAC DEN LV
NFC East WAS NYG DAL PHI
NFC North GB MIN CHI DET
NFC South TB NO ATL CAR
NFC West LAR SEA SF ARI
#1 Draft Pick HOU - - -
AFC Division Winners KC CLE BUF TEN
AFC Wild Card Teams BAL LAC MIA -
NFC Division Winners TB LAR GB WAS
NFC Wild Card Teams SEA NO MIN -
AFC Divisional Playoffs KC TEN CLE BUF
NFC Divisional Playoffs TB SEA LAR GB
AFC Championship Game KC CLE - -
NFC Championship Game TB LAR - -
Super Bowl Teams TB CLE - -
Super Bowl Winner TB - - -

Last edited by Chris Hu - on 09 September 2021

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DAL-TB2JAX-HOU1LAC-WAS1SEA-IND1
NYJ-CAR2MIN-CIN1ARI-TEN2SF-DET1
PIT-BUF2PHI-ATL2CLE-KC1GB-NO1
DEN-NYG1MIA-NE1CHI-LAR2BAL-LV1



RolStoppable said:
hatmoza said:

You are supposed to use numbers for the game picks because that makes it faster for me to enter the picks in the spreadsheet.

Your bracket has both CLE and DEN advancing when they would play against each other in the wild card round as third and sixth seed. Consequently, neither team makes it in my spreadsheet and subsequently CLE isn't in the AFC Championship Game nor Super Bowl, let alone wins it. So that's five blank cells in your bracket until you fix the logical inconsistency in your wild card results.

Gotchya and I'm well aware.

I honestly just wanted to get something down before I missed the deadline because I'm up to my neck with work atm. I'll fix it as soon is I get a chance to actually sit down and think.



I am the black sheep     "of course I'm crazy, but that doesn't mean I'm wrong."-Robert Anton Wilson

Ok, it's not nearly as bad as I thought it was last night, only I have BUF in the AFC championship instead of KC... which I don't agree with. If I have time, I'll probably go back and rearrange it to I want it to be. But if I don't, this will do.

Just as a courtesy, can you glance over it to make sure it's in logical sequence, Rol? Cuz I am very prone to brain farts. Like seriously.



I am the black sheep     "of course I'm crazy, but that doesn't mean I'm wrong."-Robert Anton Wilson

hatmoza said:

Ok, it's not nearly as bad as I thought it was last night, only I have BUF in the AFC championship instead of KC... which I don't agree with. If I have time, I'll probably go back and rearrange it to I want it to be. But if I don't, this will do.

Just as a courtesy, can you glance over it to make sure it's in logical sequence, Rol? Cuz I am very prone to brain farts. Like seriously.

CLE made it into the divisional playoffs now, but then they advance together with BUF despite playing against them. You are indeed prone to baffling mistakes.

@Chris Hu The playoff field in your bracket is almost completely empty. I hope you know.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

DAL-TB2JAX-HOU2LAC-WAS1SEA-IND1
NYJ-CAR2MIN-CIN2ARI-TEN2SF-DET1
PIT-BUF2PHI-ATL1CLE-KC2GB-NO1
DEN-NYG2MIA-NE2CHI-LAR2BAL-LV1

Last edited by RolStoppable - on 30 August 2021