Kyros said: Taking current sales and extrapolating them into the future is pretty much bullshit. |
Taking current sales and looking at what is happening in the near-term future is the way business trends are predicted. I suggest you get a book entitled "Against The Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk". Without the past -- i.e. current and past trends, you can have no future as you can't make predictions based on some concrete data. Before statistics, everything was the will of the Gods. Thinking people tend to look at the past, learn from it, add in some analysis, and make a prediction going forward. Have you got some other metod -- i.e. a crystal ball -- that is more accurate that extrapolation? If so, enlighten us.
My statement above makes a number of assumptions and I pretty much indicated them as they have to be made for my analysis to stand. Clearly any one of my assumptions can change which changes the analysis but you already know that, don't you?
Lastly, yes, there are exclusives coming out for the PS3. Yes, there are exclusives coming out for the 360. We can assume there will be "bumps" from them. We can assume there will be bumps from price adjustments. I don't believe any of them will be significant, on a long-term basis, to drastically change my analysis above. Perhaps a handful of months, but I don't see it changing by a year. Again, see my original statement that MS is going to do everything in its power to keep the gap from getting any bigger. We don't yet know what those might be, do we? We also don't know what Sony would do to counter.
What if MS had a new slim-line sku this holiday that was cheaper and included Gears, Forza 2, and a handful of other top-shelf titles for, say, $199. Will they do it? I highly doubt it, but it would be a rather significant event none-the-less. My point here is that there are a few known variables -- FFXIII, GT5, MGS4, etc. on the PS3 side as well as a handful on the 360. Yeah, these will skew results along the way... BUT there are so many other unknowns at the moment that I'll stick with original post as where I think the consoles will end up over the next couple of years...
I hate trolls.
Systems I currently own: 360, PS3, Wii, DS Lite (2)
Systems I've owned: PS2, PS1, Dreamcast, Saturn, 3DO, Genesis, Gamecube, N64, SNES, NES, GBA, GB, C64, Amiga, Atari 2600 and 5200, Sega Game Gear, Vectrex, Intellivision, Pong. Yes, Pong.