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Forums - Sales Discussion - Shipments : PS2 vs DS vs Switch vs ...

Norion on 03 February 2021
javi741 said:

Based off the Switch's pace rn, it's safe to assume the Switch's biggest opponents in sales will be the PS2 and DS. The Switch will obviously pass the Wii and most likely the PS4 as 120-130M is looking more and more like a pessimistic prediction for the Switch. The only other system that sold as fast as he Switch at this point is the DS, which sold 154M. It's better to expect a sales prediction close to that for the Switch.

At this point I'd say 120-130M is not only pessimistic but it's also now an unrealistically low prediction for the Switch since it could decline like how the Wii did after its peak and still sell over 130M assuming 2020 is the peak year and I don't expect it to decline like that did so 140M is probably the minimum now. If it reaches 100M this year which is likely I'll become pretty certain of 140M being the minimum.



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mk7sx on 03 February 2021

Here's my updated chart with Sony/Nintendo numbers this week.

Last edited by mk7sx - on 03 February 2021

Eagle367 on 03 February 2021

So interesting that ps2 had such a steady rate going for it. Ps4 will never be able to do that but if it did, it could go all the way. Ans switch us just going to the moon and 2021 will determine whether it crosses DS and PS2



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Chrkeller on 03 February 2021

I keep waiting for the Switch to slow down significantly (but still sell), and it just keeps on going.



Amnesia on 03 February 2021
yo33331 said:

Why PS2 doesn't reach ~158M in your chart ?

I have not completed everything yet. Here it was enough to see that the curve of the PS2 were still stronger than the DS to catch it up if we project the lines. Slowly I am completing everything.



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icykai on 03 February 2021
HigHurtenflurst said:

Thanks for that.

This shows the discrepancy between internal shipments and "sales" (aka shipments to retailers)

This shows Sony's internal shipments on the left, & "sales" on the right for the FY end Mar2007:

Q12.542.3
Q25.023.4
Q34.116.7
Q42.532.4
Total14.214.8


Not sure if any consoles got counted twice, or not at all during the transition (Nintendo figures also used to be internal shipments but they transitioned in year 2000)


Interestingly in your first link you can see they regularly ship a large number of units in the September quarter, often exceeding the December quarter, which shows how early they have to prepare for holiday sales.

I didn't notice the difference at first. Thanks for pointing it out.



Amnesia on 03 February 2021
icykai said:

I was just checking this yesterday, hope the links help.

Ps2 starts on 2000 Q1 (March 2000) and ends on 2006 Q4 (March 2007):
https://web.archive.org/web/20120609161654/http://scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps2_e.html

Ps2 starts on 2006 Q1 (March 2006) and ends on 2011 Q4 (March 2012):
https://web.archive.org/web/20131101120621/www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps2_sale_e.html

Basically you'll be skipping 2006 row from the second link and just adding 2007 to 2011 to the table.

The last link is when Sony decided for no reason to combine the PS2 and PS3 sales.

PS2 and PS3 sales combined starts on Q1 2012 (March 2012) and ends on Q1 2013 (June 2013):
https://web.archive.org/web/20131022125200/http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdata_ces_sale_e.html
Since the PS2 got discontinued by the end of Q3 2012( Dec 2012), I think Q4 2012 and Q1 2013 are irrelevant.

Also, there is the continuation of the shipment for the 2013 FY, but i dont know if you'll find anything useful there either.
https://web.archive.org/web/20180210150030/http://www.sie.com/en/corporate/data/hardware_sale.html

Awesome thanks !! I think that I have now every quarter cumul. that I was missing to have my curve. I was sometimes more than 1,5 million away.



TruckOSaurus on 03 February 2021
yo33331 said:

Why PS2 doesn't reach ~158M in your chart ?

That number was reached after the 41 quarters shown on the graph.



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Amnesia on 03 February 2021

I have updated the first post in considering most of the remarks you have done, in completing the data as well. Note that for the PS2, the very last numbers should still be missing, the curve can not stop like this with such a slop. But it is weird because it actually reach the final numbers before getting flat.



xMetroid on 03 February 2021

I feel like they will keep the Switch around for a long time, i think it's safe to say the floor is pretty much 130 millions now.
It will definitely sell over 20 millions this year. First half of 2021 will be really strong, it has great momentum currently and has system sellers and special edition in the coming weeks/months. Then seeing how well packed first half is and how Nintendo didn't shy away from keeping H1 somewhat blank, it means they don't have much space for other months in H2. It's pretty obvious some price cut or revision (or both) will happen to.