KInd of forgot about RFA & SMP. SMP should definitely reach 20m and I could see RFA hitting 20m as well. I actually don't see Nintendo releasing a new 2D Mario game on Switch, largely for the same reason I am not expecting a new Mario Kart. Would be awesome if the Switch successor launched with 2D Mario & Mario Kart.

Something I forgot to mention before: Nintendo's R&D spending is up 29.2% so far compared to the last fiscal year.  Considering that we are only in the middle of the Switch's life, I think most of that R&D spending is going toward Switch games and not the Switch's inevitable successor.  

People say that Nintendo has already fired all of their big guns, but I wouldn't bet on that.

Who knows, maybe the R&D will try something new. Or maybe they'll try to revive something old. It is Nintendo, so it is hard to say.

Still gonna put the bold prediction out there that a Prime 4 that does for Metroid what BotW did for Zelda will hit 20m+. The game will have reached almost mythical levels of hype among gamers when it finally comes out (not before 2023 at the earliest) because of the near decade span between announcement and release, and by that point Switch will surely have one of the largest install bases of any console ever. Who knows, maybe even the largest ever. All it will take is a home run in terms of quality and MP4 is gonna explode. Exception being if it ends up getting BotW’d and being a launch title for the successor as well, which is also very possible at this point too, since I won’t rule out as late as a 2025 release.

20m+ club is surely only half way there, if even, if the successor isn’t around till 2025 or so. Would be hard pressed to imagine we’ll ever see anything like Switch again in terms of software juggernauts and the quantity of them. It also sets Nintendo up as being fairly indestructible for quite some time to come in the industry, as they will have a crapload of exclusive IPs that have reached a massive audience and age range. The level of Nintendo brand loyalty the Switch will create for the future could be the biggest achievement.

Didn’t they just announce something being done with their online infrastructure?

Yeah apparently they're totally replacing their old server system

https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2021/02/nintendo_is_replacing_its_multiplayer_server_system_dating_back_to_the_wii_u_and_3ds_era

Or going towards the inevitable revision.

Its a bold prediction indeed. I think the stars will have to align for Metroid Prime 4 to even make it to 10 million. I think Nintendo would be more than happy with that, considering the franchise's struggles with sales. Metroid Prime was considered a landmark game, but barely missed the 3 million unit mark. To go all the way to 10 million after being irrelevant for the majority of the 2010s and to somehow make it to 10 million, let alone 20 million, would be incredible.

I guess good marketing would help, but its still Metroid. A well-regarded franchise among core/hardcore game fans, but not well known or even noted by casual/non-game fans. I would be more than happy to see Prime 4 sell about 5 million. It would almost be the Fire Emblem Awakening of the franchise. Then Metroid can grow from there. Unless...if a new 2D Metroid, if its real, comes out, is well-received and sells about 3 million or so units before Prime 4 releases, then 10 million can be possible. 20 million though, that would require more than marketing and a critically acclaimed game.

BotW was sort of in a perfect storm.

So, if 9 third party games sold over a million for the quarter, what do we think they might be?

Momotaro is a given, but what else?

I thought that was talking about this fiscal year?

Also I think among us might count, its listed on the switch best selling wikipedia page at 3.2 million or something like that