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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Could Nintendo keep the Switch going until the launch of the 10th gen consoles?

They should wait until mobile tech reaches the point where a Switch 2 can be to PS5/XS what Switch 1 was to PS4/Xbone power wise, (that is, close enough to get ports) and be sold for $300 at a profit.



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No chance whatsoever. There are only so many people willing and able to buy any one piece of console hardware. Eventually, all significant demand will be addressed. Everyone that wants a Switch will have one at some point, and at that point nobody will buy one unless they're looking to replace defective ones. By 2027 (when the PS6 and Xbox 5 are likely to be released) the Switch will be a decade old. By that point, demand will be so low as to be nearly dead. What demand will still have been unmet by that point? Even systems as mighty as the PS2 and DS reached a peak and then entered a period of terminal decline. There isn't a single shred of evidence to indicate that a system can simply continue to sell in large quantities indefinitely.

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 23 January 2021

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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

Wyrdness said:

It will because Switch itself is a 9th gen platform so the successor is the release of a 10th gen.

Nope. You don't get a generation all to yourself just because you launch mid-gen.



Dante9 said:
Wyrdness said:

It will because Switch itself is a 9th gen platform so the successor is the release of a 10th gen.

Nope. You don't get a generation all to yourself just because you launch mid-gen.

Genesis/Mega drive says hi.



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Wyrdness said:
Dante9 said:

Nope. You don't get a generation all to yourself just because you launch mid-gen.

Genesis/Mega drive says hi.

??

The Genesis/MegaDrive (and even the PC Engine/TG16, which released in Japan the year before) are both clearly Gen 4 consoles alongside the SNES.

The only consoles that arguably could get a generation all to themselves would maybe be some of the consoles released very late into the 2nd and 4th gensm which sort of were a gen 2.5 or 4.5 (Colecovision, Sega SG1000, Atari Jaguar, etc). But those are all massive outliers.

The Switch ironically is a candidate for getting a generation to itself (or more accurately, being some sort of Gen 8.5). Though I will say that generally Nintendo handhelds, since the days of the GBA, have been 2 generations behind in terms of power compared to home consoles so that's a strong argument for the Switch being Gen 9 proper. (Gen 6 GBA was as powerful as Gen 4 SNES; Gen 7 DS was as powerful as the Gen 5 PSX; Gen 8 3DS was as powerful as the Gen 6 Gamecube, and now Gen 9 Switch is as powerful as the Gen 7 PS3).

By these rules, we should expect Gen 10 to get started some time in 2023 or 2024 with a Switch 2 that will be somewhere about as powerful as a PS4 or PS4 Pro.



tack50 said:
Wyrdness said:

Genesis/Mega drive says hi.

??

The Genesis/MegaDrive (and even the PC Engine/TG16, which released in Japan the year before) are both clearly Gen 4 consoles alongside the SNES.

The only consoles that arguably could get a generation all to themselves would maybe be some of the consoles released very late into the 2nd and 4th gensm which sort of were a gen 2.5 or 4.5 (Colecovision, Sega SG1000, Atari Jaguar, etc). But those are all massive outliers.

The Switch ironically is a candidate for getting a generation to itself (or more accurately, being some sort of Gen 8.5). Though I will say that generally Nintendo handhelds, since the days of the GBA, have been 2 generations behind in terms of power compared to home consoles so that's a strong argument for the Switch being Gen 9 proper. (Gen 6 GBA was as powerful as Gen 4 SNES; Gen 7 DS was as powerful as the Gen 5 PSX; Gen 8 3DS was as powerful as the Gen 6 Gamecube, and now Gen 9 Switch is as powerful as the Gen 7 PS3).

By these rules, we should expect Gen 10 to get started some time in 2023 or 2024 with a Switch 2 that will be somewhere about as powerful as a PS4 or PS4 Pro.

What are you on about? I don't think you read what you're replying to properly Genesis being Gen 4 is the point as he's trying to say Switch isn't gen 9 because it released a few years before the rest yet that is exactly what Genesis did but was still Gen 4 same thing with DC it released 2 years before the others but is still Gen 6. So in other words yes a platform can get a gen to itself if it releases early, Switch had gen 9 to itself until the PS5/XSS which is the point. Gens are also not defined by power of hardware.

Last edited by Wyrdness - on 23 January 2021

curl-6 said:

They should wait until mobile tech reaches the point where a Switch 2 can be to PS5/XS what Switch 1 was to PS4/Xbone power wise, (that is, close enough to get ports) and be sold for $300 at a profit.

That's pretty much what I said as well.

I think a device with 3x the GPU power should be enough. Something they could potentially achieve now but will get cheaper over time. They could do a less powerful GPU but I'd like to see less 360p on Switch.

8GB of RAM would be plenty, the Series S has 10GB but a more demanding OS. Then throw in a more capable CPU and we could have a device capable of running 9th gen games.

Ideally it would be at par with a base PS4. A device that is already handling cross gen games fairly well.



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No; Nintendo doesn't have enough impact titles left to maintain interest for that long. That being said, if they can make 2-3 new IPs that can have the same kind of impact Splatoon did, then I'll be singing a different tune.



Darwinianevolution said:

With the new PS5/XBox X having just launch and the Switch still doing very well regardless, I was wondering. Lack of power seems to affect the system very little in regards to sales, as well as availability of most major 3rd party multiplats, the console is selling regardless of those. Considering how the Switch has fully occupied the handheld market and it's probably going to go toe to toe with the 9th gen consoles, will the Switch do well enough for long enough for Nintendo to consider  keeping it alive until the launch of 10th gen hardware? What would need to happen for it to last that long?

I think so. What helps the Switch is it's very scalable with technology. Like the iPhone, Nintendo can just keep iterating on it without releasing a totally new console. So it wont get left behind too much, but even still, we aren't getting the same leaps in technology we used to get. The last two generations have been a bit longer than normal so it wouldn't be a surprise to see a longer one from Nintendo too (though that may be more due to development times). Switch is at a happy medium for performance so it doesn't need a next generation upgrade anytime soon.

Plus, as you mentioned, Nintendo has been able to create value on the Switch with their titles. Nintendo has already used most of their big hitters (save a 2D Mario and a new Mario Kart). Still, the system can still be pushed by sequels, new IPs and the B/C Nintendo series (such as Star Fox or Rhythm Heaven). All the while, games like Smash, Breath of the Wild and Animal Crossing keep bringing in new players. Also, we might start seeing more third party games on the system thanks in part to the system's success in Japan. Really, this factor could be the reason Nintendo prolongs the system's life. 

One thing to add is that Nintendo may not want to release anything too soon due to the fractured economy. The 2020 lockdowns have ravaged the economy with high unemployment and inflation (thanks to central bank money printing). Pocket books are going to start being pushed, so a Switch would be a good proposition. Nintendo could even cut $50 bucks off the standard and Lite and still be totally OK. Really, if the economy gets worse (which I expect it will), then Nintendo is in a better position than Sony and Microsoft are. So this, more than anything, may push the Switch towards a 10 year lifespan. 



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