With the new PS5/XBox X having just launch and the Switch still doing very well regardless, I was wondering. Lack of power seems to affect the system very little in regards to sales, as well as availability of most major 3rd party multiplats, the console is selling regardless of those. Considering how the Switch has fully occupied the handheld market and it's probably going to go toe to toe with the 9th gen consoles, will the Switch do well enough for long enough for Nintendo to consider keeping it alive until the launch of 10th gen hardware? What would need to happen for it to last that long?
I think so. What helps the Switch is it's very scalable with technology. Like the iPhone, Nintendo can just keep iterating on it without releasing a totally new console. So it wont get left behind too much, but even still, we aren't getting the same leaps in technology we used to get. The last two generations have been a bit longer than normal so it wouldn't be a surprise to see a longer one from Nintendo too (though that may be more due to development times). Switch is at a happy medium for performance so it doesn't need a next generation upgrade anytime soon.
Plus, as you mentioned, Nintendo has been able to create value on the Switch with their titles. Nintendo has already used most of their big hitters (save a 2D Mario and a new Mario Kart). Still, the system can still be pushed by sequels, new IPs and the B/C Nintendo series (such as Star Fox or Rhythm Heaven). All the while, games like Smash, Breath of the Wild and Animal Crossing keep bringing in new players. Also, we might start seeing more third party games on the system thanks in part to the system's success in Japan. Really, this factor could be the reason Nintendo prolongs the system's life.
One thing to add is that Nintendo may not want to release anything too soon due to the fractured economy. The 2020 lockdowns have ravaged the economy with high unemployment and inflation (thanks to central bank money printing). Pocket books are going to start being pushed, so a Switch would be a good proposition. Nintendo could even cut $50 bucks off the standard and Lite and still be totally OK. Really, if the economy gets worse (which I expect it will), then Nintendo is in a better position than Sony and Microsoft are. So this, more than anything, may push the Switch towards a 10 year lifespan.