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Forums - Sales Discussion - PlayStation/Xbox/Switch Hardware Battle: 2021 Edition: Week 35 - First Week of September

CheddarPlease said:

Pardon my impatience, but ima make quick projection like with last weeks results:

Edit: Added 2017 and 2018 to the comparison

Switch 2017 *Launched in March

As of week 18: 3.215 million

Percentage of total: 24.51%

Total sales for year: 13.118 million

Switch 2018

As of week 18: 3.535 million

Percentage of total: 21.64%

Total sales for year: 16.339 million

Switch 2019 *Switch Lite Release in September

As of week 18: 4.26 million

Percentage of total: 22.07%

Total sales for year: 19.296 million

Switch 2020

As of week 18: 7.746 million

Percentage of total: 27.38%

Total sales for year: 28.294 million

Switch 2021

As of week 18: 8.227 million

(Assuming same percentage applies from 2017)

Total sales for year: 33.57 million

(Assuming same percentage applies from 2018)

Total sales for year: 38.03 million

(Assuming same percentage applies from 2019)

Total sales for year: 37.28 million

(Assuming same percentage applies from 2020)

Total sales for year: 30.05 million

Given Holiday sales last year were somewhat underwhelming, the road to 30 million and beyond remains clear.

Yeah, I think Switch is guaranteed to sell 30m+ this year.  The real question for me is how far above 30m are they going to get.  It will probably be based on how much they are capable of manufacturing.  I doubt they will manufacture 37m+ even if they have an amazing software lineup and demand is actually that high.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:

Yeah, I think Switch is guaranteed to sell 30m+ this year.  The real question for me is how far above 30m are they going to get.  It will probably be based on how much they are capable of manufacturing.  I doubt they will manufacture 37m+ even if they have an amazing software lineup and demand is actually that high.

The optimist in me would be inclined to agree, but after having predicted 30M last year and overshooting quarterly results 2 times in a row, I've still pegged my current prediction at 26 Million (Which I have high confidence will be exceeded) as that would still be enough, according to my predictions, for the Switch to reach 165 Million LTD.

Regardless, the trends are clearly pointing towards 30M<, so it's just a matter of Nintendo keeping supply steady throughout the rest of the year. Assuming 30M is reached this year, that would throw my current predictions straight out the window, as it would be clear that the Switch would be heading for 170M and beyond. All I can say is that Tbone better be right about this one.



The_Liquid_Laser said:

Yeah, I think Switch is guaranteed to sell 30m+ this year.  The real question for me is how far above 30m are they going to get.  It will probably be based on how much they are capable of manufacturing.  I doubt they will manufacture 37m+ even if they have an amazing software lineup and demand is actually that high.

Nintendo announced that they are also getting affected by the chip crunch now, several chips on the Switch's Mainboard are apparently getting harder and harder to come by. As such, I fear the maximum is not what Nintendo can sell, but what they will be able to get in parts to produce.



Week 19 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Up in the United States; Down in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down overall.

PlayStation 5: Up in all regions.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Up in the United States, Japan, and the Rest of the World: Down in Europe; Down overall.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



WEEK 19 UPDATE

(Projection of Switch Sales in 2021 based on % of sales during week 18 from prior years)

Switch 2021

As of week 19: 8.651 million

(% Sales from 2017) Total sales for year: 34.09 million (Last week: 33.57 million)

(% Sales from 2018) Total sales for year: 38.37 million (Last week: 38.03 million)

(% Sales from 2019) Total sales for year: 37.55 million (Last week: 37.28 million)

(% Sales from 2020) Total sales for year: 29.32 million (Last week: 30.05 million)

Projections for Switch are up every year except 2020. However, this is to be expected as this is the last week in which 2020 sees boosted sales due to the Animal Crossing / COVID bump. Furthermore, solid evidence suggests a Q3 release date for the next Switch revision, with manufacturing starting in June.

(Opinion) Outlook suggests production may take a hit during late summer but will rebound massively during the fall and holiday season. If the production of Switch / Switch Lite SKUs is not slashed significantly or immediately due to the new model, sales considerable north of 30M may begin to be considered for this FY. 



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Week 20 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Up in the United States; Down in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down overall.

PlayStation 5: Up in all regions.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Up in Japan and the Rest of the World; Down in the United States and Europe; Up overall.

----------------------------------------------------

Nintendo: The losing streak is over! The Switch is now up YoY this week after 8 straight weeks of being down following the head to head competition between Animal Crossing: New Horizons and Monster Hunter: Rise. And not in ends the losing streak in style as this week, the Switch has officially surpassed the Xbox 360 on the All Time Console Sales list! Furthermore, the Switch also passes 9 million units sold for this year on Week 20, one week earlier than it did last year.

Microsoft: The Xbox Series has officially surpassed 2 million units sold for this year, a whopping 10 weeks earlier than it took the Xbox One to pass the same mark in its first full year on the market in 2014. It also stretches its lead over the Xbox One to 2/3rd of a million - Which is what the Xbox One will be lucky to achieve this year if it continues its steady decline at this rate.

Sony: The PS5 extends its winning streak to 4 weeks over the PS4 as it passes 4.25 million units on the year, 3 weeks earlier than the PS4 did in 2014. The PS4 is poised to pass 1 million units sold this year as of next week, a feat that took the PS3 only 11 weeks to achieve, so the PS4 is 9 weeks behind the PS3's pace.



PAOerfulone said:

Week 20 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Up in the United States; Down in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down overall.

PlayStation 5: Up in all regions.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Up in Japan and the Rest of the World; Down in the United States and Europe; Up overall.

----------------------------------------------------

Nintendo: The losing streak is over! The Switch is now up YoY this week after 8 straight weeks of being down following the head to head competition between Animal Crossing: New Horizons and Monster Hunter: Rise. And not in ends the losing streak in style as this week, the Switch has officially surpassed the Xbox 360 on the All Time Console Sales list! Furthermore, the Switch also passes 9 million units sold for this year on Week 20, one week earlier than it did last year.

Microsoft: The Xbox Series has officially surpassed 2 million units sold for this year, a whopping 10 weeks earlier than it took the Xbox One to pass the same mark in its first full year on the market in 2014. It also stretches its lead over the Xbox One to 2/3rd of a million - Which is what the Xbox One will be lucky to achieve this year if it continues its steady decline at this rate.

Sony: The PS5 extends its winning streak to 4 weeks over the PS4 as it passes 4.25 million units on the year, 3 weeks earlier than the PS4 did in 2014. The PS4 is poised to pass 1 million units sold this year as of next week, a feat that took the PS3 only 11 weeks to achieve, so the PS4 is 9 weeks behind the PS3's pace.

Bravo! Thank you! Love to see this thread every week.



PAOerfulone said:

It also stretches its lead over the Xbox One to 2/3rd of a million - Which is what the Xbox One will be lucky to achieve this year if it continues its steady decline at this rate.

Really ?

Xbox One is slightly ahead of 360 in 2015, which did 930k for the year.

If it keeps the same pace of declining it should reach 1 full million by end of the year, what 2/3rds are you talking about ?

And no, it is not luck, it's something normal. Even the 1M this year is something normal. More than 1M for the year will be luck.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/244504/switch-vs-ds-and-ps4xb1-vs-ps36015-week-may-22nd/

Last edited by yo33331 - on 03 June 2021

yo33331 said:
PAOerfulone said:

It also stretches its lead over the Xbox One to 2/3rd of a million - Which is what the Xbox One will be lucky to achieve this year if it continues its steady decline at this rate.

Really ?

Xbox One is slightly ahead of 360 in 2015, which did 930k for the year.

If it keeps the same pace of declining it should reach 1 full million by end of the year, what 2/3rds are you talking about ?

And no, it is not luck, it's something normal. Even the 1M this year is something normal. More than 1M for the year will be luck.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/244504/switch-vs-ds-and-ps4xb1-vs-ps36015-week-may-22nd/

39,4391,417,786106,1432,085,766+ 66,704+ 667,980

                                                                               ^^^

That's the 2/3rds of a million that I'm talking about. (It stretches it's lead over the Xbox One to 2/3rds of a million; 667k, is roughly 2/3rds of 1 million.)

With each passing week, the Xbox One's baseline has gradually declined. That 14,509 it just posted is the lowest number it has put up. The lows are getting lower. 

January - 24,456

February - 23,346 (- 1,110)

March - 20,292 (- 3,054)

April - 17,354 (- 2,938)

May - 15,112 (-2,242)

The baseline drops another 1-3k by the 1st week of each new month. At this rate, it may be under 10k by the time we hit September. What indication or reason do we have to believe that the baseline will remain where it is or just magically start climbing back up? Especially as eyes, attention, and resources shift more and more to the Xbox Series? That's why I said it would be lucky to hit 2/3rds of 1 million on the year, because we have seen no indication and have no reason to believe that this free-fall will stop any time soon. Right now, the bottom is falling out. The Wii U's baseline in May 2016 was selling at almost double the Xbox One's baseline is currently and the Wii U ended up at 1.16 million. And the Wii U had the benefit of not having its successor launching until the next year, the Xbox One does not. 

You bring up the 360, but here's the thing. The 360 had A LOT more going in its favor than the Xbox One ever had. Sales, marketing, game library, momentum, reputation. Once upon a brief time, the 360 was the market leader of the 7th generation, and it was ultimately the winner in North America, which largely carried it in its later years. Two things which the Xbox One does not have in its favor. The fact that you felt the need to compare the Xbox One, in its first year after the launch of its (thus far, considerably successful, fairly well received) successor, to the Xbox 360 in its second year after the launch of its (not so successful, poorly received, some would even call failure) successor, should tell you right there just how bleak the future looks for the Xbox One.



PAOerfulone said:

That's the 2/3rds of a million that I'm talking about. (It stretches it's lead over the Xbox One to 2/3rds of a million; 667k, is roughly 2/3rds of 1 million.)

With each passing week, the Xbox One's baseline has gradually declined. That 14,509 it just posted is the lowest number it has put up. The lows are getting lower. 

January - 24,456

February - 23,346 (- 1,110)

March - 20,292 (- 3,054)

April - 17,354 (- 2,938)

May - 15,112 (-2,242)

The baseline drops another 1-3k by the 1st week of each new month. At this rate, it may be under 10k by the time we hit September. What indication or reason do we have to believe that the baseline will remain where it is or just magically start climbing back up? Especially as eyes, attention, and resources shift more and more to the Xbox Series? That's why I said it would be lucky to hit 2/3rds of 1 million on the year, because we have seen no indication and have no reason to believe that this free-fall will stop any time soon. Right now, the bottom is falling out. The Wii U's baseline in May 2016 was selling at almost double the Xbox One's baseline is currently and the Wii U ended up at 1.16 million. And the Wii U had the benefit of not having its successor launching until the next year, the Xbox One does not. 

You bring up the 360, but here's the thing. The 360 had A LOT more going in its favor than the Xbox One ever had. Sales, marketing, game library, momentum, reputation. Once upon a brief time, the 360 was the market leader of the 7th generation, and it was ultimately the winner in North America, which largely carried it in its later years. Two things which the Xbox One does not have in its favor. The fact that you felt the need to compare the Xbox One, in its first year after the launch of its (thus far, considerably successful, fairly well received) successor, to the Xbox 360 in its second year after the launch of its (not so successful, poorly received, some would even call failure) successor, should tell you right there just how bleak the future looks for the Xbox One.

You're absolutely right for everything here. I agree.

However you miss something.

I've never said the xbox one will not show lower number week on week.

It will. And this is not a problem. See my table of the comparison. 360 also went very weak in the same point in time 360 is 11k per week while XB1 is 14k per week. The 360 goes even to as low as 7k in september, and the XB1 will also probably be the lowest there. However since it shows a little better numbers until now for the year than 360's 2015, it should drop as low as maybe 9 or 10k per week. Then it will have a little boost in the holidays and that's it.Also for the drops, the 360 dropped even more for the year from 25k in january to 11k in may, bigger drops than the XB1.

I am not talking about for the future of the console, we all know that it will be dead probably by the next year. I am talking particularly about the sales for this calendar year. They are on pace to reach 1M. And by the weekly and yearly numbers in comparison for the 360 in 2015 I think XB1 will reach or come very close to 1M, way ahead of the 2/3rds of a million you are talking about. If 360 with lower numbers each week can reach 930k in 2015, XB1 can too. As I already said XB1 is slightly ahead for now, and is 3K ahead every week. Even in the worst case scenario to begin to drop much more than the 360 did in the coming months it still will reach at least 900k. 

Last edited by yo33331 - on 04 June 2021