By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - PlayStation/Xbox/Switch Hardware Battle: 2021 Edition: FINAL RESULTS!

PAOerfulone said:

Nintendo - A newsworthy week for the Nintendo Switch as it has offically passed the PlayStation Portable on the all time Video Game Console sales list. And it is primed and poised to past the Game Boy Advance next week, and then we'll have Monster Hunter Rise the week after going head-to-head with Animal Crossing: New Horizons from last year. It will almost certainly do monstrous numbers in Japan, the only question is how much will that boost extend to the other regions?

Don't know about anywhere else but in ireland it is currently number 1 and 2 on the eshop charts so thats a good sign.



Around the Network

Week 11 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Down in all regions.

PlayStation 5: Up in all regions

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in Japan and the Rest of the World; Down in the United States and Europe; Down overall.

Nintendo Switch: Up in all regions.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Sony - The PS4 has officially dropped below the 40k baseline and was outsold at as close of a 2:1 ratio as you can get by the PS3. The PS5 baseline dipped a little bit as we are beginning to see a sort of teeter-totter trend these past 4 weeks for the PS5. Still easily solidly ahead of the PS4 however. Next week will prove to be a test to see if it can stay ahead. The Famitsu thread revealed that PS5 sales for the next week jumped drastically. No doubt it got a little bit of leftover boost from the release of Monster Hunter Rise. 

Microsoft - The Xbox One continues its free fall as it gets thrashed by the 360 again and for the first time since Week 1, the Xbox Series fails to outsell the Xbox One. This week marked the release of Titanfall which gave a huge boost the Xbox One sales and should have a carry over towards next week as well. 

Nintendo - The Nintendo Switch has now officially surpassed the Game Boy Advance to move into 9th place on the list of Best Selling Video Game Consoles of All Time. It gets a substantial boost as well as it prepares for the launch of Monster Hunter Rise next week. 2021 has won every single week thus far, but next week will be its first true test.

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 02 April 2021

RolStoppable said:

2021 is looking good with its baseline of ~400k units per week. So despite its YOY lead being bound to shrink in the coming weeks, 2021 should be able to weather the storm and remain competitive with 2020 for a long time. Right now I'd call the biggest factor of uncertainty for 2021 to become Switch's new peak year the situation that we don't know how many weeks 2021 will have in VGC's tracking. 2020 had 53 weeks, so it's more likely that 2021 will have only 52 weeks.

Regardless, 2021's ace up its sleeve is a hardware revision which we'll get on top of a stronger holiday lineup than last year's. So even if 2021 falls behind 2020 at some point, the outlook for its backend is notably more favorable. But it's possible that 2021 may stay ahead for good, because 2020 ran into shortages during May and June which resulted in a baseline below 400k units for a good while.

2021 should be the 52 weeks ending 1st Jan 2022 as I understand it. So a YOY direct comparison would be the 52 weeks ending 2nd Jan 2021.

That means VGC firgure for 2020 the Switch had a 459k advanatage as it had to include that extra week ending Jan 4th 2020, so for 2021 anything above 27,840,000 means the Switch's new peak.



Week 12 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Down in all regions.

PlayStation 5: Up in Europe and Japan; Down in the United States and the Rest of the World; Up overall.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down in the United States; Down overall.

Nintendo Switch: Down in all regions.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Monster Has Risen!!!

That's right, Week 12 marks the official release of Monster Hunter Rise for the Nintendo Switch. So, let's not waste any time and get right into that.

Nintendo: With the release of Monster Hunter Rise, Switch hardware as sharply increased to nearly 750k for the week. This boost is obviously a big win to close out the first quarter of the year and would absolutely be a win across the boards... If not for the fact that during Week 12 of last year, we got Animal Crossing New Horizons, which absolutely blew everything else out of the water with sales cracking the coveted 'million' mark. As a result, this is the first week of the year where the Nintendo Switch is actually Down compared to last year. Thankfully, it's managed to build a big enough lead over the previous 11 weeks to the point where it still maintains a roughly 1 million advantage. However, the coming weeks and post-launch legs of Monster Hunter Rise could very well tell us how the rest of the year and this comparison could unfold. We'll see if the 2021 is able to hold off and hang on to its lead, or if 2020 starts to chip away.

Sony: The boost isn't exclusive to Nintendo it seems as Sony saw a sharp rise in PS5 sales from the previous week, with Japan sales nearly doubling the previous week. Japan, unironically, is Monster Hunter's biggest region. Obviously, a tale-tale sign that there is very much an audience for a mainline Monster Hunter game on PS5. Perhaps we will see it further down the road. But for now, it's a split battle this week as all 4 regions were split with Europe and Japan going in favor of the PS5, with the U.S. and the Rest of the World going against it. However, Europe and Japan was strong enough to give the slight worldwide victory this week to the PS5 by a slim margin. The PS4 vs. PS3 comparison continues as it has been, with the one region that may look to be competitive being the U.S. region. While the other regions were deficits in the 5-10k range. The U.S. was barely over 1k. And with the PS3 baseline looking to drop in the coming weeks in the U.S., perhaps this is the one region where the PS4 can actually be competitive.

Microsoft: Unfortunately, it looks like that boost didn't extend to Microsoft. While the Xbox Series is up from the previous week and goes back to its winning ways over the Xbox One '14, that has more to do with more stock than anything else. It actually dropped in Japan which... is not saying much. Speaking of not saying much, the Xbox One puts up another stinker against the 360. It's comical at this point.



Week 13 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Down in all regions.

PlayStation 5: Up in the United States, Europe and the Rest of the World; Down in Japan; Up overall.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Down in all regions.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

We are now in Week 13, which is also the final week of March this year. Ironically enough, we also got NPD figures for the month of March and adjustments to go along with them!

The PS4, PS5, and Xbox Series were all adjusted up. The Xbox One remains the same. While the Nintendo Switch was very barely adjusted down, but it's so miniscule that you probably wouldn't have known about it if I hadn't told you!

With these adjustments and new figures, the PS5 has officially taken the lead over the PS4 and is now selling ahead of it, joining the Xbox Series in consoles selling ahead of their predecessors. Meanwhile, the PS4 and Xbox One, despite favorable adjustments, continue to fall further behind THEIR predecessors. And the Switch continues to be the Switch, albeit, at a lower rate than this time last year. While Monster Hunter is quite... the monster, it is proving to be no match for Animal Crossing, which was on an entirely different level of its own. And the boost will last for a little while longer and as a result, Switch 2021 will likely see an upcoming losing streak where its lead over 2020 could be in jeopardy. That is, of course, not pending any adjustments that come n the wake of Nintendo's next financial report and Fiscal Year Earnings due on May 6th. 



Around the Network

Week 14 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Down in all regions.

PlayStation 5: Up in all regions.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Down in all regions.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

We are officially in the 1st week of April, which means we are now over a quarter of the way through the year! As it stands, the PS4 and Xbox One continue to lag behind their predecessors in their post-successor launch years. The PS5 maintains a slim advantage so far over the PS4 in its first year on the market, while the Xbox Series enjoys a bigger lead over the Xbox One in its first year. The Nintendo Switch of this year continues to see its lead shrink over last year as Monster Hunter, while quite... the monster, does not quite measure up to Animal Crossing. It's going to be a tough battle ahead for 2021 as it tries to hang on to its lead.



Adjustments must be made after the new March NPD leaks and Sony's financial reports.



Can't wait to see the adjustments!



Week 16 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Up in the United States; Down in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down overall.

PlayStation 5: Up in the United States, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down in Europe; Up overall.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Up in Japan; Down in the United States, Europe, and the Rest of the World; Down overall.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Apologies for the extended wait.

As you could imagine, I had A LOT of adjustments to make to the comparisons in light of Sony's financial figures and the April NPD figures... That and my mind was on the NFL Draft (Go Niners, baby!! Welcome to the Trey Area!!!) I finally finished all the adjustments at around Tuesday afternoon, and by that time, we were already 2 days away from not only the next batch of weekly numbers, but also NINTENDO'S financial figures. So I figured I'd wait it out to see if any MORE adjustments needed to be made before finally posting an update. (They weren't.)

With that said, let's dive in!

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sony: The adjustments have proven to be VERY kind to Sony's systems. The PS4 was adjusted up to the point where it's actually putting up a decent fight against the PS3 in the U.S. There's still not much to say about that comparison, but at least the PS4 is putting up an effort in this regard. Meanwhile, the PS5 has kicked it to another gear and starting to put some considerable distance between itself and the PS4. It still has some catching up to do in Japan, but in all the other regions and overall, it's proving to have stronger momentum than the PS4 did at this point in its first year. 

Microsoft: The adjustments were beneficial to Microsoft as well. Although, it was only to the Xbox Series, which continues to build its own lead over the Xbox One of 2014. Towards the 2nd week of June was when the Xbox One had the Kinect taken out and a $100 price cut to go along with it, which notably raised its baseline. However, that baseline is still below what the Xbox Series is selling now with stock issues. So the Xbox Series is proving to be a big success for Microsoft in that regard.

Nintendo: The adjustments were also beneficial to Nintendo as the Switch saw its sales raised a bit, however, not enough to where it could take a week away from 2020, post-Animal Crossing. And now, we can see its lead starting to chip away worldwide, and Japan has been a dead-even, back-and-forth battle. Now if there's one thing I think the Switch will have going for it in the coming months is that its summer schedule is slightly better than last year's (at least in my view) between Mario Golf and Skyward Sword HD among their top titles for the summer, that should help 2021's chances in maintaining or perhaps building its lead.



Now that we're 16 weeks in, enough time has passed and we've got our first financial reports of the new year from Sony and Nintendo, it's time for my personal favorite part of this thread, PROJECTIONS!!!

At this point in time during their respective years, the PS3, PS4, Xbox One, Xbox Series, and Nintendo Switch sold through these percentages of their sales:

PlayStation 3 '14 - 37.72248446%

PlayStation 4 '14 - 22.03296402%

Xbox 360 '14 - 30.72062864%

Xbox One '14 - 16.40180156%

Nintendo Switch '20 - 23.87841713%

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If each of these percentages were to hold for all 5 systems this year, these would be the estimated final yearly totals for all 5 in 2021.

PlayStation 4 '21 -

Worldwide: ~2,226,388 units

Spoiler!
United States: ~421,002 units
Spoiler!
Europe: ~961,913 units
Spoiler!
Japan: ~278,364 units
Spoiler!
Rest of the World: ~555,108 units

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PlayStation 5 '21 - 

Worldwide: ~16,132,895 units

Spoiler!
United States: ~5,455,646 units
Spoiler!
Europe: ~6,684,807 units
Spoiler!
Japan: ~1,114,550 units
Spoiler!
Rest of the World: ~2,877,892 units

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Xbox One '21 -

Worldwide: ~1,057,853 units

Spoiler!
United States: ~578,983 units
Spoiler!
Europe: ~270,216 units
Spoiler!
Japan: ~3,810 units
Spoiler!
Rest of the World: ~204,837 units

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Xbox Series '21 -

Worldwide: ~10,493,908 units

Spoiler!
United States: ~6,114,968 units
Spoiler!
Europe: ~2,760,442 units
Spoiler!
Japan: ~63,340 units
Spoiler!
Rest of the World: ~1,555,157 units

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nintendo Switch '21 -

Worldwide: ~30,841,923 units

Spoiler!
United States: ~10,211,150 units
Spoiler!
Europe: ~8,064,467 units
Spoiler!
Japan: ~6,958,860 units
Spoiler!
Rest of the World: 5,607,447 units