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Forums - Sales Discussion - PlayStation/Xbox/Switch Hardware Battle: 2021 Edition: FINAL RESULTS!

PAOerfulone said:

DISCLAIMER: Pending adjustments - Liable to change:
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Duh duh duh duhhhhh!
Duh duh duh duh duhhhh!
Duh duh duh duhhhhhh!

THE FINAL COUNTDOWWWWwwwnnn...

No? Anyone? (sigh) fine...

I say "The Final ______ " all the time and then sing the song (changing "countdown" to whatever I feel like at the time.)  E.g. "It's the final doughnut!"



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
PAOerfulone said:

DISCLAIMER: Pending adjustments - Liable to change:
---------------------------------------------------------------

Duh duh duh duhhhhh!
Duh duh duh duh duhhhh!
Duh duh duh duhhhhhh!

THE FINAL COUNTDOWWWWwwwnnn...

No? Anyone? (sigh) fine...

I say "The Final ______ " all the time and then sing the song (changing "countdown" to whatever I feel like at the time.)  E.g. "It's the final doughnut!"

"It's the Final Reply!" 

(Not really.)



@PAOerfulone Shouldn't the final total for Switch be a little bit higher than that, like around the 24-25m range? I'd imagine that they will sell over 1m for most of the next few weeks, or at least close to it.



Obviously the final total will be higher, this is just projections based on the weekly average. As a way to give us an idea/ball park of where it'll finish. 



RolStoppable said:
PAOerfulone said:

Obviously the final total will be higher, this is just projections based on the weekly average. As a way to give us an idea/ball park of where it'll finish. 

I wonder why you didn't realize why this whole exercise would be pointless. The results on their own should have made it clear that the methodology for these projections are rubbish. What good does the weekly average do when it's well established that December sales are significantly bigger than almost every month in the year with the exception of November which can at least compete when it comes to sales of PS and Xbox consoles.

For example, your Switch projection for Japan gave you 5.1m, but the first of four weeks of December sales (Famitsu) already brought the YTD to 5.0m.

I could understand this if it was a "just for fun, let's do something that is obviously wrong and see which results we get", but when you say it was supposed to give an idea for the ballpark where the consoles would end up at, then this is no better than the final quarter of the year starting with September.+

*shakes fist because PAOerfulone is doing better in the NFL prediction league*

Who says it can't be both. I realized about midway through that they were way off. But I still did it anyway to see how it would turn out.

*Git gud, Rol*



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PAOerfulone said:

Obviously the final total will be higher, this is just projections based on the weekly average. As a way to give us an idea/ball park of where it'll finish. 

I'd say a better way to do basic projections could be to take the current YoY change.

So Switch 2020 for the equivalent 48 weeks of 2021 (which starts with the 277k week because 2020 was a 53 week year on VGC) was at 23.074m, in 2021 for these 48 weeks we are at 21.065m so 8.71% down YoY.

2020 totalled 27.83m for a 52-week period so the projection for 2021 would be 25.41m



Week 49 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Down in all regions

PlayStation 5: Down in all regions

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in Europe; Down in the US, Japan, and ROTW; Down overall.

Nintendo Switch: Up in ROTW; Down in the US, Europe, and Japan; Down overall.

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Week 50 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Down in all regions

PlayStation 5: Down in all regions

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in the Europe, Japan, and the ROTW; Down in the US; Up overall.

Nintendo Switch: Up in Europe; Down in the US, Japan, and the ROTW; Down overall.

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Week 51 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Down in all regions

PlayStation 5: Up in Japan; Down in the US, Europe, and the ROTW; Down overall.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in the Europe and the ROTW; Down in the US and Japan; Up overall.

Nintendo Switch: Down in all regions.

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After the past few weeks of adjustments (and also just being lazy on my part... NFL playoffs - Thanks a lot, Garoppolo.)

I believe now we have FINAL results for this comparison:

PS4 '21: Down WW by 1,599,566 - (Down in the US by 125,619, Down in Europe by 481,095, Down in Japan by 385,898, Down in the ROTW by 606,954.)

PS5 '21: Down WW by 902,668 - (Down in the US by 444,273, Down in Europe by 413,235, Up in Japan by 14,517, Down in the ROTW by 59,677.)

XBO '21: Down WW by 1,891,954 - (Down in the US by 979,351, Down in Europe by 520,303, Down in Japan by 9,474, Down in the ROTW by 382,826.)

XBXS '21: Up WW by 1,220,596 - (Down in the US by 299,889, Up in Europe by 756,936, Up in Japan by 53,201, Up in the ROTW by 710,348.)

NSW: Down WW by 3,314,210 - (Down in the US by 1,225,849, Down in Europe by 712,855, Down in Japan by 908,840, Down in the ROTW by 466,666.)

So the only one that managed to be up and actually win its comparison was the Xbox Series X/S.
Guess Microsoft has a true winner on their hands. Time will tell if they can keep up the momentum.

The PS5, while down compared to the PS4's first full year, was held back by severe stock shortages and supply issues. If those weren't an issue, it would have been up as well.
Not sure if I can say the same for the Nintendo Switch, while it dealt with shortages in its own right, I still feel like it would have been down no matter what. It's clear that it has past its peak and now we will see how long its tail will be.

But that's it for this comparison!
I'll need a little bit of time before I can set up the next one, I'm still not entirely sure what I want to do with that one. (If I want to keep the PS4 and Xbox One around (doing 5 comparisons is a HASSLE, especially when you get to the end of the year like with this one. I may opt to take a different comparison but, again, still not entirely sure.) So keep a look out for that when it comes.