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Forums - Sales Discussion - God of War (PS4) nearing 20M sold, franchise cross 50M.

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src said:

Sony is not at Nintendo's level but is nearing it.

  1. 30M+:
    1. AC, MK (2)
  2. 20M+:
    1. Zelda, Pokemon, Mario 3D, SSB (4)
    2. TLOU, UC, SM, GOW (4)
  3. 10-15M:
    1. Splatoon, Mario Party, Pokemon spin off (3)
    2. Horizon, Ghost of Tsushima, FF7R (3)
  4. 5-10M:
    1. LM3, MM, Mario 3D remaster, Ringfit (4)
    2. Days Gone, Death Stranding, Ratchet and Clank, Demons Souls (4)

Now total 1st party software sales, Nintendo is still notably ahead, but my point was that Sony has almost equal 1st party IP strength while having every third party competing in their ecosystem. Hence why this is unprecedented since the SNES/NES days. To out it into perspective, PS4 is approaching 1.5 billion total games sold. SW is at 450 million.

https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2017/01/ps4_software_sales_exceed_400_million_console_sales_reach_53_4_million

https://www.ign.com/articles/nintendo-switch-sales-animal-crossing-profit

At 3 years and 3 months, PS4 was at 400 million software sales. 

At 3 years and a half, Switch was at 450 million software sales. 

Now, I don't think anyone expects the Switch's software total to be as good as Playstation 4's - or at least it's pretty unlikely. But the Switch was, and possibly still is, currently outselling the Playstation 4's total software sales. With less big triple A games overall and with almost no price cuts for most of their games.

It's simply disingenuous to throw out a figure like that and expect it to land. It's like if I told you that Switch first party games have more competition than Sony first party games because, technically, Switch has more software available on the platform overall than the Playstation 4. It just doesn't have context behind it, so the figure makes no sense to just throw out as an argument. 



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AngryLittleAlchemist said:
src said:

Sony is not at Nintendo's level but is nearing it.

  1. 30M+:
    1. AC, MK (2)
  2. 20M+:
    1. Zelda, Pokemon, Mario 3D, SSB (4)
    2. TLOU, UC, SM, GOW (4)
  3. 10-15M:
    1. Splatoon, Mario Party, Pokemon spin off (3)
    2. Horizon, Ghost of Tsushima, FF7R (3)
  4. 5-10M:
    1. LM3, MM, Mario 3D remaster, Ringfit (4)
    2. Days Gone, Death Stranding, Ratchet and Clank, Demons Souls (4)

Now total 1st party software sales, Nintendo is still notably ahead, but my point was that Sony has almost equal 1st party IP strength while having every third party competing in their ecosystem. Hence why this is unprecedented since the SNES/NES days. To out it into perspective, PS4 is approaching 1.5 billion total games sold. SW is at 450 million.

https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2017/01/ps4_software_sales_exceed_400_million_console_sales_reach_53_4_million

https://www.ign.com/articles/nintendo-switch-sales-animal-crossing-profit

At 3 years and 3 months, PS4 was at 400 million software sales. 

At 3 years and a half, Switch was at 450 million software sales. 

Now, I don't think anyone expects the Switch's software total to be as good as Playstation 4's - or at least it's pretty unlikely. But the Switch was, and possibly still is, currently outselling the Playstation 4's total software sales. With less big triple A games overall and with almost no price cuts for most of their games.

It's simply disingenuous to throw out a figure like that and expect it to land. It's like if I told you that Switch first party games have more competition than Sony first party games because, technically, Switch has more software available on the platform overall than the Playstation 4. It just doesn't have context behind it, so the figure makes no sense to just throw out as an argument. 

Your figures are wrong.

PS4 had 57.1 million (shipment) by FY 2016 Q3. Thats statement was made when PS4 was at 53 million sell through. We can even be generous and say FY 2016 Q3 had 4 million or so left over inventory (though thats highly unlikely).

This means PS4 reached 400 million in under 3 years (2013 Q3 -> 2016 Q3)

SW, as of 2019 Q4, was at 356 million (2016 Q4 -> 2019 Q4)

PS4 is 50 million ahead.

You also seem to misunderstand that software sales growth are a non-linear trend. The function x^1.5 and x^1.6 may stay close at the beginning, but grows in difference as x gets larger.

SW isn't coming close to PS4

SW (per FY)

2016 Q4 - 5.46

2017 - 63.51

2018 - 118.55

2019 - 168.72

PS4 (per FY)

2014 - (81.8 - x), x is 2013 sw sales

2015 - 158.7

2016 - 217.9



src said:

The figures weren't wrong, they were literally reported by a personnel of Sony. It's just the figures were about 3 months off. 

"You also seem to misunderstand that software sales growth are a non-linear trend. The function x^1.5 and x^1.6 may stay close at the beginning, but grows in difference as x gets larger."

That's not true, and a bad assumption to make. Nothing in my original comment implies I think software sales are a linear trend. I was simply comparing two specific points in two different consoles, relative to their lifespan, so of course the comparison was linear. But I never commented on the trend being linear, in fact if I thought the trend was linear, why would I imply in my own comment that I think Playstation 4 will outsell Switch's software total ("Now, I don't think anyone expects the Switch's software total to be as good as Playstation 4's")? By a pretty large amount of software, might I add. 

Regardless, THANK YOU for correcting me on some things. I wasn't entirely sure with the comparison I made and now you've informed me of the correct data. Still, though, I think my original point stands that making a blank comparison between Switch's current software total and the software total PS4 has right now is disingenuous and lacks a lot of context (I put context into my reply, was just a little off in the dates). But you did a very good job of providing a lot of context in this post, so live and let live. 



AngryLittleAlchemist said:
src said:

The figures weren't wrong, they were literally reported by a personnel of Sony. It's just the figures were about 3 months off. 

"You also seem to misunderstand that software sales growth are a non-linear trend. The function x^1.5 and x^1.6 may stay close at the beginning, but grows in difference as x gets larger."

That's not true, and a bad assumption to make. Nothing in my original comment implies I think software sales are a linear trend. I was simply comparing two specific points in two different consoles, relative to their lifespan, so of course the comparison was linear. But I never commented on the trend being linear, in fact if I thought the trend was linear, why would I imply in my own comment that I think Playstation 4 will outsell Switch's software total ("Now, I don't think anyone expects the Switch's software total to be as good as Playstation 4's")? By a pretty large amount of software, might I add. 

Regardless, THANK YOU for correcting me on some things. I wasn't entirely sure with the comparison I made and now you've informed me of the correct data. Still, though, I think my original point stands that making a blank comparison between Switch's current software total and the software total PS4 has right now is disingenuous and lacks a lot of context (I put context into my reply, was just a little off in the dates). But you did a very good job of providing a lot of context in this post, so live and let live. 

Yes you either compare both at the same time with launch aligned either in time or HW sold, or you do for expected LT. To compare the total of PS4 now to Switch now doesn't make much of a sense unless if to say "Switch needs to sell this many HW and/or SW to catch up to PS4 and I think it will/won't be able do it".



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

I really hope that Ghost of Tsushima and The Last of Us 2 hit the 20 million mark as well, in future. Absolutely deserved. God of War rocks.

By the way, News: Absolutely Every PS5 is Sold, Says PlayStation CEO

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/243846/absolutely-every-playstation-5-is-sold-says-playstation-ceo/

Last edited by KazumaKiryu - on 20 November 2020

Game of the Year 2020: Ghost of Tsushima, Persona 5 Royal or The Last of Us 2 ?!

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I like it when things I like do well, because it incentivizes those in power to make more of the thing I like. I am glad stuff like Spider-Man and God of War and Horizon Zero Dawn are doing well and their sequels will function as tentpoles for the next generation's first year.



Runa216 said:
I like it when things I like do well, because it incentivizes those in power to make more of the thing I like. I am glad stuff like Spider-Man and God of War and Horizon Zero Dawn are doing well and their sequels will function as tentpoles for the next generation's first year.

Now imagine if Single Player games weren't dead.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

DonFerrari said:
Runa216 said:
I like it when things I like do well, because it incentivizes those in power to make more of the thing I like. I am glad stuff like Spider-Man and God of War and Horizon Zero Dawn are doing well and their sequels will function as tentpoles for the next generation's first year.

Now imagine if Single Player games weren't dead.

Or that all the PS exclusives weren't identical...what with them all being third person action-adventure story-driven singleplayer games. I mean, clearly these are all the same,so it's only a matter of time before Sony's methods backfire. 



Runa216 said:
DonFerrari said:
Runa216 said:
I like it when things I like do well, because it incentivizes those in power to make more of the thing I like. I am glad stuff like Spider-Man and God of War and Horizon Zero Dawn are doing well and their sequels will function as tentpoles for the next generation's first year.

Now imagine if Single Player games weren't dead.

Or that all the PS exclusives weren't identical...what with them all being third person action-adventure story-driven singleplayer games. I mean, clearly these are all the same,so it's only a matter of time before Sony's methods backfire. 

No one want these sad dad games, we need mp shooters because they are completely different from one another.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

I love when people say third person action adventure like its some small set of games. Most games are third person, and most third person games are action adventures lmao