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Forums - Sales Discussion - God of War (PS4) nearing 20M sold, franchise cross 50M.

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Cohh on 17 November 2020
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

I mean, it sounds like you're mocking that reasoning but .... that's completely true. They aren't at Nintendo level. They'd be at or even above Nintendo level if we were comparing it to the Wii era (if we weren't including separately sold Wii series games, which is kind of unfair, a product is a product but oh well). But they aren't at the Switch's level, it's not even deniable really, think even NPD's analysts have said there's no system that has sold exclusives like the Switch. Animal Crossing is a good example, to be fair, as that will probably do 30M in a year. A year. 


 

Well if you choose to see stuff that way, you also have to admit that compared to Microsoft and Sony games, Nintendo games face much less competition from third parties. It doesn't make Nintendo games sell not look impressive but it should be taken into account. 



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AngryLittleAlchemist on 17 November 2020
Cohh said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

I mean, it sounds like you're mocking that reasoning but .... that's completely true. They aren't at Nintendo level. They'd be at or even above Nintendo level if we were comparing it to the Wii era (if we weren't including separately sold Wii series games, which is kind of unfair, a product is a product but oh well). But they aren't at the Switch's level, it's not even deniable really, think even NPD's analysts have said there's no system that has sold exclusives like the Switch. Animal Crossing is a good example, to be fair, as that will probably do 30M in a year. A year. 


 

Well if you choose to see stuff that way, you also have to admit that compared to Microsoft and Sony games, Nintendo games face much less competition from third parties. It doesn't make Nintendo games sell not look impressive but it should be taken into account. 

I mean I don't "choose to see stuff that way", to say otherwise would just be literally false based on the evidence of sales figures. 

But yes, of course Nintendo faces less competition in comparison. They are more isolationist compared to other platform holders. 



DonFerrari on 17 November 2020
AngryLittleAlchemist said:
DonFerrari said:
src said:
Sony's 1st party are now above nearly every third party offering on Playstation and are nearing Nintendo levels. That's unprecedented, since Playstation also has the bulk of third party sales. We haven't seen a synergy like this since Nintendo in the NES/SNES days. 20M + : TLOU, UC, GOW, SM10M+ : Horizon, Ghost, GT, 5-10M : RC, DS, DG, Demons Souls

Don't do that, you are going to attract a lot of heat from "don't dare compare PS exclusives to Nintendo, Animal Crossing done 20M while GoT done 5M"

I mean, it sounds like you're mocking that reasoning but .... that's completely true. They aren't at Nintendo level. They'd be at or even above Nintendo level if we were comparing it to the Wii era (if we weren't including separately sold Wii series games, which is kind of unfair, a product is a product but oh well). But they aren't at the Switch's level, it's not even deniable really, think even NPD's analysts have said there's no system that has sold exclusives like the Switch. Animal Crossing is a good example, to be fair, as that will probably do 30M in a year. A year. 

Nogamez said:
GOTG deserves insane sales. Even thought its being beat by a couple previous gen games ? aka BoTW, GTA5 and Minecraft

Breath of the Wild is not previous gen. Let's not do this. 

I'm mocking the need to go and say that Sony isn't approaching Nintendo on sales of their first party. He didn't say it is the same level, he just saying that it is nearing. Pick PS3 the best seller was a little over 10M and most titles would be 1-2M. In PS4 almost all entries have improved in sales (including new IPs from devs that had lot lower sales before).

Anyone saying Sony 1st party have reached iconic status of Mario certainly can be mocked, but for me to deny that Sony isn't nearing Nintendo level because AC done much better than PS4 exclusives also deserves mocking. Because people that do that would be pissed if you then said that compared to Minecraft and GTA Nintendo games are niche level.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari on 17 November 2020
BraLoD said:
DonFerrari said:
BraLoD said:
foodfather said:
While I don't quite believe the numbers it is easily the best exclusive game that I have played, I absolutely hated the series before, but the feeling I felt playing it was just like how it was first time I played TLOU. I'm glad its the best selling in the franchise. I can't wait to see more of it.

Which numbers exactly you don't believe into?

The series growth (22/29/51) is all official data. The ~20M is a good estimate based on that and previous games already consolidated official sales.

It doesn't get much lower than that.

The fact that those other games were on previous gen and so much time have passed makes the last official numbers probably very close to current LTD. So yep almost all the sales in between were for GoW 2018, that is why it should be very near 20M (sure some can be attributed to promotional deals or bundles but how many games got so much from this without being games that people really wanted to buy?)

We have GoW3 Remastered too. Don't think it sold a lot but it was a game released for the PS4.

True, but there was enough time between GoW3R and GoW2018. But yes in the end there is little chance that it won't sell 20M.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

src on 19 November 2020

Sony is not at Nintendo's level but is nearing it.

  1. 30M+:
    1. AC, MK (2)
  2. 20M+:
    1. Zelda, Pokemon, Mario 3D, SSB (4)
    2. TLOU, UC, SM, GOW (4)
  3. 10-15M:
    1. Splatoon, Mario Party, Pokemon spin off (3)
    2. Horizon, Ghost of Tsushima, FF7R (3)
  4. 5-10M:
    1. LM3, MM, Mario 3D remaster, Ringfit (4)
    2. Days Gone, Death Stranding, Ratchet and Clank, Demons Souls (4)

Now total 1st party software sales, Nintendo is still notably ahead, but my point was that Sony has almost equal 1st party IP strength while having every third party competing in their ecosystem. Hence why this is unprecedented since the SNES/NES days. To out it into perspective, PS4 is approaching 1.5 billion total games sold. SW is at 450 million.



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KazumaKiryu on 19 November 2020

I say only one thing:Ragnarök... is coming!!!



AngryLittleAlchemist on 19 November 2020
src said:

Sony is not at Nintendo's level but is nearing it.

  1. 30M+:
    1. AC, MK (2)
  2. 20M+:
    1. Zelda, Pokemon, Mario 3D, SSB (4)
    2. TLOU, UC, SM, GOW (4)
  3. 10-15M:
    1. Splatoon, Mario Party, Pokemon spin off (3)
    2. Horizon, Ghost of Tsushima, FF7R (3)
  4. 5-10M:
    1. LM3, MM, Mario 3D remaster, Ringfit (4)
    2. Days Gone, Death Stranding, Ratchet and Clank, Demons Souls (4)

Now total 1st party software sales, Nintendo is still notably ahead, but my point was that Sony has almost equal 1st party IP strength while having every third party competing in their ecosystem. Hence why this is unprecedented since the SNES/NES days. To out it into perspective, PS4 is approaching 1.5 billion total games sold. SW is at 450 million.

https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2017/01/ps4_software_sales_exceed_400_million_console_sales_reach_53_4_million

https://www.ign.com/articles/nintendo-switch-sales-animal-crossing-profit

At 3 years and 3 months, PS4 was at 400 million software sales. 

At 3 years and a half, Switch was at 450 million software sales. 

Now, I don't think anyone expects the Switch's software total to be as good as Playstation 4's - or at least it's pretty unlikely. But the Switch was, and possibly still is, currently outselling the Playstation 4's total software sales. With less big triple A games overall and with almost no price cuts for most of their games.

It's simply disingenuous to throw out a figure like that and expect it to land. It's like if I told you that Switch first party games have more competition than Sony first party games because, technically, Switch has more software available on the platform overall than the Playstation 4. It just doesn't have context behind it, so the figure makes no sense to just throw out as an argument. 



src on 20 November 2020
AngryLittleAlchemist said:
src said:

Sony is not at Nintendo's level but is nearing it.

  1. 30M+:
    1. AC, MK (2)
  2. 20M+:
    1. Zelda, Pokemon, Mario 3D, SSB (4)
    2. TLOU, UC, SM, GOW (4)
  3. 10-15M:
    1. Splatoon, Mario Party, Pokemon spin off (3)
    2. Horizon, Ghost of Tsushima, FF7R (3)
  4. 5-10M:
    1. LM3, MM, Mario 3D remaster, Ringfit (4)
    2. Days Gone, Death Stranding, Ratchet and Clank, Demons Souls (4)

Now total 1st party software sales, Nintendo is still notably ahead, but my point was that Sony has almost equal 1st party IP strength while having every third party competing in their ecosystem. Hence why this is unprecedented since the SNES/NES days. To out it into perspective, PS4 is approaching 1.5 billion total games sold. SW is at 450 million.

https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2017/01/ps4_software_sales_exceed_400_million_console_sales_reach_53_4_million

https://www.ign.com/articles/nintendo-switch-sales-animal-crossing-profit

At 3 years and 3 months, PS4 was at 400 million software sales. 

At 3 years and a half, Switch was at 450 million software sales. 

Now, I don't think anyone expects the Switch's software total to be as good as Playstation 4's - or at least it's pretty unlikely. But the Switch was, and possibly still is, currently outselling the Playstation 4's total software sales. With less big triple A games overall and with almost no price cuts for most of their games.

It's simply disingenuous to throw out a figure like that and expect it to land. It's like if I told you that Switch first party games have more competition than Sony first party games because, technically, Switch has more software available on the platform overall than the Playstation 4. It just doesn't have context behind it, so the figure makes no sense to just throw out as an argument. 

Your figures are wrong.

PS4 had 57.1 million (shipment) by FY 2016 Q3. Thats statement was made when PS4 was at 53 million sell through. We can even be generous and say FY 2016 Q3 had 4 million or so left over inventory (though thats highly unlikely).

This means PS4 reached 400 million in under 3 years (2013 Q3 -> 2016 Q3)

SW, as of 2019 Q4, was at 356 million (2016 Q4 -> 2019 Q4)

PS4 is 50 million ahead.

You also seem to misunderstand that software sales growth are a non-linear trend. The function x^1.5 and x^1.6 may stay close at the beginning, but grows in difference as x gets larger.

SW isn't coming close to PS4

SW (per FY)

2016 Q4 - 5.46

2017 - 63.51

2018 - 118.55

2019 - 168.72

PS4 (per FY)

2014 - (81.8 - x), x is 2013 sw sales

2015 - 158.7

2016 - 217.9



AngryLittleAlchemist on 20 November 2020
src said:

The figures weren't wrong, they were literally reported by a personnel of Sony. It's just the figures were about 3 months off. 

"You also seem to misunderstand that software sales growth are a non-linear trend. The function x^1.5 and x^1.6 may stay close at the beginning, but grows in difference as x gets larger."

That's not true, and a bad assumption to make. Nothing in my original comment implies I think software sales are a linear trend. I was simply comparing two specific points in two different consoles, relative to their lifespan, so of course the comparison was linear. But I never commented on the trend being linear, in fact if I thought the trend was linear, why would I imply in my own comment that I think Playstation 4 will outsell Switch's software total ("Now, I don't think anyone expects the Switch's software total to be as good as Playstation 4's")? By a pretty large amount of software, might I add. 

Regardless, THANK YOU for correcting me on some things. I wasn't entirely sure with the comparison I made and now you've informed me of the correct data. Still, though, I think my original point stands that making a blank comparison between Switch's current software total and the software total PS4 has right now is disingenuous and lacks a lot of context (I put context into my reply, was just a little off in the dates). But you did a very good job of providing a lot of context in this post, so live and let live. 



DonFerrari on 20 November 2020
AngryLittleAlchemist said:
src said:

The figures weren't wrong, they were literally reported by a personnel of Sony. It's just the figures were about 3 months off. 

"You also seem to misunderstand that software sales growth are a non-linear trend. The function x^1.5 and x^1.6 may stay close at the beginning, but grows in difference as x gets larger."

That's not true, and a bad assumption to make. Nothing in my original comment implies I think software sales are a linear trend. I was simply comparing two specific points in two different consoles, relative to their lifespan, so of course the comparison was linear. But I never commented on the trend being linear, in fact if I thought the trend was linear, why would I imply in my own comment that I think Playstation 4 will outsell Switch's software total ("Now, I don't think anyone expects the Switch's software total to be as good as Playstation 4's")? By a pretty large amount of software, might I add. 

Regardless, THANK YOU for correcting me on some things. I wasn't entirely sure with the comparison I made and now you've informed me of the correct data. Still, though, I think my original point stands that making a blank comparison between Switch's current software total and the software total PS4 has right now is disingenuous and lacks a lot of context (I put context into my reply, was just a little off in the dates). But you did a very good job of providing a lot of context in this post, so live and let live. 

Yes you either compare both at the same time with launch aligned either in time or HW sold, or you do for expected LT. To compare the total of PS4 now to Switch now doesn't make much of a sense unless if to say "Switch needs to sell this many HW and/or SW to catch up to PS4 and I think it will/won't be able do it".



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."