Yeah, it's interesting to note that the Wii has reached greater dominance in the last 4 weeks than ever before. Doesn't really play into the "fad" concept very well.

I think they are gonna stockpile for Christmas. Just a hunch really. They stockpiled before launch to have a big launch everywhere within weeks, so they have done it before. But it's a good question. Sell everything now because you can (and save interest/stockkeeping costs). But then hand Xmas to Xbox in the US and give PS3 a chance in Japan. Remember that not stockpiling at all limits sales to 300K worldwide in Christmas week, and that would also limit games/peripherals sales that week. I think there are hints that demand is roughly on a par with supply, if still above. E.g. ebay prices aren't massively more than list. So current supply can kind of keep up and make lots of money, so maybe the rest is getting put away (if current production is 1.5 million/month.) I'd be interested if there are other benefits of hanging on until Christmas. And has it ever happened before, i.e. a big games company having to worry about stockpiling or selling now?

it would be crazy for them not to stockpile Wiis for christmas. If they don't start now they will run out at Christmas. You have to remember that there are a lot of people who will but a Wii at Christmas who won't buy it/will buy something else if it's not available.

now people will be prepared to wait but at Christmas time if little Johhny wants a gaming system and the Wii isn't available they're gonna buy a PS3.

Nintendo absolutely needs a huge amount of Wiis to release during the Christmas shopping period. 

Did you take into account that if the PS3 hadn't have launched in Europe now, it would've last year (I'm talking about 'minus the ps3 euro launch bit, btw) - meaning that the ps3 would have been ahead still (although the average would probably be lower). btw, I know anecdotal evidence doesn't really mean much in the grand scheme of things, but in Europe Sony didn't advertise the launch of the PS3 well (meaning about a week before the launch, they started the 'This is Living' campaign - which didn't even feature the PS3), and many people I know weren't even aware the PS3 was launching until a couple of days before thanks to the fact that the media started focusing on it. What I'm saying is, Sony didn't advertise the PS3 well in the UK (I don't know about the rest of Europe), and now I know of around 15 people who are trying to muster up the cash to buy one - and in our age group (I'm 15 - possibly the youngest on the forum) that could take quite a while. Anyway, what the piece of pointless anecdotal evidence was trying to say is that maybe their could be a boost in European sales around summer time - thanks to more people getting the cash to buy the console.

PS3 will get a boost in the summer..but not because of people saving money..it will be because there will be more games available, making the initial sticker shock..less shocking.

You have to understand though - PS3 sales have been going down every week since launch week in Europe.  The first sign that demand is increasing will be stablizing sales - which means the trend, if not actual sales is starting to reverse.  If the trend continued for more than a week, then sales would start to go up steadily.  But as I posted in another thread - if sales of a console dip to under 35,000/week it is essentially irrelevant until sales pick up.  PS3 has never been that low - but to me it is just one threshold above that 'failure' level at the moment - at 50,000 per week.  Sales of say 18,000 in Europe, 18,000 in the Americas, and 8,000 in Japan are certaintly possible this week worldwide - bringing PS3 ever closer to the 35,000 level.  I don't think it is going to get that low though - Ninja Gaiden Sigma and Lair are in the offing, although I wouldn't be surprised if PS3 sales bottomed out another 20% lower than they were for the week ending May 20, at around 40,000/worldwide/week at some point in the summer before going back up toward 70-80k per week worldwide. 

Hmmm... TheSource, I like the thought you put into yor posts, I was wondering if you could tell me (roughly) what the PS3 and Wii will be like at the end of the year (I'm PSWii - and in that order).

Looking through April and May data, it appears that Nintendo's claims of increased production are not unfounded...

If May is just April 2- April 29, about 850,000 Wii's were sold, add in the extra two days, and it jumps to around 900,000.  For four week May (week ending May 6 to week ending May 27), my estimate is 931,689 - a 10% increase from the previous month in sell through (and therefore production).  Adjusted for calendar May (using 1/2 of the data for the week ending June 3, but subtracting April 30 from the May 6 week), gives total sales of just over 1 million..somewhere in the 1.03-1.05 million range - again roughly a 10% increase from Calendar May.

If this were to continue, Wii will end up selling 1.2 million in calendar June.

For the end of the year, I expect sales around 18 million for Wii, 7 million for PS3, and 14.5 million for Xbox 360.

And that could be because we ALWAYS (well, not always but 95% at the time) get short end of the stick in game releases. :(

And of course in the console pricing too. :(  (270 euros=about 350 dollars) And Finland isn't even the most pricey land for videogames. And don't get me started with accessories prices here. (But still bought 3 motes and nunchuk's at launch)  ;)

Just release the g'd damn english version of the game first, then those french, german and other version's of games.

If only NoE (or Nintendo as whole) could get their act together for Europe. (Still waiting for SM RPG , waiting for Earthbound 2 :(, still waiting Super Paper Mario , yay we did get Metal Slug ½ year later,  yay we are gonna get Trauma Center over ½ year later, Elebits ½ year later, we are not gonna get SSBB this year according to the it's site and YAY Mp3:C / Fire Emblem / SMG are still TBA.

I think this is a reason why Europe is "worst" region selling games for Big N. Even half of my GC-games are imported from America.

You almost nailed it. Yes, the PS3 will keep dropping (especially in Europe!), and we'll see the 40K/week number very soon. But it won't take on as much from there as you believe during the summer. I don't know a lot about the Ninja game, but Lair will flop. Lair won't get good reviews, not at all.

About Lair, think Resistance: fall of man, a nice but very un-original game that will sell 1 million copies only because it's one of few "big" games out there for PS3-owners to get. Lair already got bad previews, and I sense a 7.0-ish rating on Gamespot & co. Why? Because it's just a Rogue Squadron with dragons, with extremely limited freedom, and those type of games don't sell systems anymore.

 Another factor that will hurt PS3-sales a lot during the summer is the price cut-rumours that will get stronger now that MS-officials have started the talk about a X360 price cut and a "$199 sweet spot" (I predict a X360 price cut just as we go into the flood of big titles in august/september, $299 for the premium)

22 week totals:

Wii - 4,921,017 (numbers changed slightly from when I checked Thursday)

PS3 - 2,133,432

*360 - 2,102,857

* Despite the PS3 launch, it looks like Xbox 360 will have outsold PS3 for the year starting June 10, 2007.

Worldwide Sales for week ending June 3:

Wii: 235,310 - about 5% above the average weekly sales for 2007

PS3: 43,398 - Under 1/2 the average for 2007 weekly sales (greatly impacted by Euro launch)

360: 88,366 - about 7% under average weekly sales for 2007.